THE PALLILOG
Creating Astros dynasty was only part of the battle, now Jim Crane prepares for next wave
Nov 10, 2022, 12:12 pm
THE PALLILOG
With the whiff of champagne still fresh and the celebration of the champs still ongoing, the Astros (and 29 Astros-wannabes) are on to acquiring free agent talent. The green flag dropping at 4PM Houston time Thursday does not mean a huge initial flurry of activity a la NBA and NFL free agency. Baseball free agency used to not get rolling until 15 days after the end of the World Series. Players wanted the ability to get cracking on their futures more quickly. It’s not bad for teams to be able to make moves sooner than later. And for Major League Baseball as an industry, firing up the so-called Hot Stove League sooner keeps the sport in the news cycle longer. So, the move to open free agency moves five days after the end of the World Series was put into effect.
On the roster side of the Astros’ 2023 equation, Justin Verlander is issue one. He obviously was declining his 25 million dollar option. It will cost the Astros at least another 10 mil if JV is to be back (provided he wants to be back) and it will also take a multi-year guarantee. At least two years, maybe three. Three months shy of his 40th birthday Verlander is 56 wins shy of the 300 goal he has. It is a virtual certainty he needs to pitch at least four more seasons to get there. With whom other than the Astros could Verlander sign that would give him as good a chance at racking up wins at a rate helpful to closing in on 300? The Dodgers, cue Porky Pig: “Ibbity, ibbity, that’s all folks!” Maybe the Braves, but no chance the Braves put up three years 120 mil or anything in that neighborhood. The Dodgers sure can.
The Astros have Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy under team control for three more seasons, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for four, and top prospect Hunter Brown for six. Verlander was awesome in 2022, but the Astros would have won the American League West again if he threw as many pitches as he did in 2021. It’s an interesting call. The Astros cut payroll this year, so the budgetary room is there to give Verlander two years, 80 mil. Is that the choice to make, or is using a chunk of that money in other areas wiser? How does Jim Crane’s personal relationship with Verlander factor into negotiations? Amazing pitching depth can disappear in a hurry. It’s extremely unlikely McCullers is ever a full-season horse. Except for a short dead-arm stretch for Urquidy, he, Valdez, Garcia, and Javier were all healthy all season. Is that to be banked upon for multiple seasons going forward?
A low-risk bet on Michael Brantley off of shoulder surgery seems sensible. One year 10-12 mil (down from the 16 he made this year)? Brantley’s OPS has declined each season since his first with the Astros, but that’s a function of eroded power. His season on base percentage has never dipped below .362. Jeremy Peña had a legendary postseason, but it is not a given he’s now going to be an offensive monster. Peña’s OBP was a poor .289. Brantley would deepen the Astros’ lineup.
The Astros should be seeking a first base upgrade over Yuli Gurriel, who played at a washed up level this year before reviving in the postseason. 12 games of output shouldn’t outweigh 146. It’s clear that Trey Mancini won’t be that upgrade. A left-handed batting complement to Chas McCormick in center field would be nice. If you would like to absolutely destroy the Yankees and their fans, dream of an outfield of Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Kyle Tucker! I said dream.
On the management side…
Jim Crane retaining Dusty Baker on a one-year contract is fine. Dusty turns 74 years old next June. Winning a World Series as a manager makes his baseball life complete, and likely ultimately gets Dusty the manager into the Baseball Hall of Fame. He’s back because he loves it. The retired Hall of Fame football coach Bill Parcells on more than one occasion referred to his future coaching outlook by saying, “I don’t buy green bananas,” meaning he had way more yesterdays in his rearview mirror than he had tomorrows in front of him. Going year-to-year works for both Baker and Crane.
Crane offering General Manager James Click a one-year contract plays as Crane ostensibly not wanting the soon to turn 45 years old Click back, but realizing that dumping the GM fresh off winning it all would not be great optically. So, putting a one-year deal on the table can reasonably be construed as letting Click know if he has a solid longer term opportunity elsewhere, take it. Business is business, and relationships are relationships. Crane does not owe it to Click to give him a long term commitment. You know the Golden Rule: do to others as you would have them do to you. Well, here’s the alternate Golden Rule: he/she who has the most gold makes the rules. If Crane doesn’t like Click’s style or whatever else, regardless of the results, it is his prerogative to move on. Retaining Click on just a one-year contract sure comes across as tantamount to saying “Win the World Series again, or buh-bye.”
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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