THE PALLILOG
Creating Astros dynasty was only part of the battle, now Jim Crane prepares for next wave
Nov 10, 2022, 12:12 pm
THE PALLILOG
With the whiff of champagne still fresh and the celebration of the champs still ongoing, the Astros (and 29 Astros-wannabes) are on to acquiring free agent talent. The green flag dropping at 4PM Houston time Thursday does not mean a huge initial flurry of activity a la NBA and NFL free agency. Baseball free agency used to not get rolling until 15 days after the end of the World Series. Players wanted the ability to get cracking on their futures more quickly. It’s not bad for teams to be able to make moves sooner than later. And for Major League Baseball as an industry, firing up the so-called Hot Stove League sooner keeps the sport in the news cycle longer. So, the move to open free agency moves five days after the end of the World Series was put into effect.
On the roster side of the Astros’ 2023 equation, Justin Verlander is issue one. He obviously was declining his 25 million dollar option. It will cost the Astros at least another 10 mil if JV is to be back (provided he wants to be back) and it will also take a multi-year guarantee. At least two years, maybe three. Three months shy of his 40th birthday Verlander is 56 wins shy of the 300 goal he has. It is a virtual certainty he needs to pitch at least four more seasons to get there. With whom other than the Astros could Verlander sign that would give him as good a chance at racking up wins at a rate helpful to closing in on 300? The Dodgers, cue Porky Pig: “Ibbity, ibbity, that’s all folks!” Maybe the Braves, but no chance the Braves put up three years 120 mil or anything in that neighborhood. The Dodgers sure can.
The Astros have Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy under team control for three more seasons, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for four, and top prospect Hunter Brown for six. Verlander was awesome in 2022, but the Astros would have won the American League West again if he threw as many pitches as he did in 2021. It’s an interesting call. The Astros cut payroll this year, so the budgetary room is there to give Verlander two years, 80 mil. Is that the choice to make, or is using a chunk of that money in other areas wiser? How does Jim Crane’s personal relationship with Verlander factor into negotiations? Amazing pitching depth can disappear in a hurry. It’s extremely unlikely McCullers is ever a full-season horse. Except for a short dead-arm stretch for Urquidy, he, Valdez, Garcia, and Javier were all healthy all season. Is that to be banked upon for multiple seasons going forward?
A low-risk bet on Michael Brantley off of shoulder surgery seems sensible. One year 10-12 mil (down from the 16 he made this year)? Brantley’s OPS has declined each season since his first with the Astros, but that’s a function of eroded power. His season on base percentage has never dipped below .362. Jeremy Peña had a legendary postseason, but it is not a given he’s now going to be an offensive monster. Peña’s OBP was a poor .289. Brantley would deepen the Astros’ lineup.
The Astros should be seeking a first base upgrade over Yuli Gurriel, who played at a washed up level this year before reviving in the postseason. 12 games of output shouldn’t outweigh 146. It’s clear that Trey Mancini won’t be that upgrade. A left-handed batting complement to Chas McCormick in center field would be nice. If you would like to absolutely destroy the Yankees and their fans, dream of an outfield of Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Kyle Tucker! I said dream.
On the management side…
Jim Crane retaining Dusty Baker on a one-year contract is fine. Dusty turns 74 years old next June. Winning a World Series as a manager makes his baseball life complete, and likely ultimately gets Dusty the manager into the Baseball Hall of Fame. He’s back because he loves it. The retired Hall of Fame football coach Bill Parcells on more than one occasion referred to his future coaching outlook by saying, “I don’t buy green bananas,” meaning he had way more yesterdays in his rearview mirror than he had tomorrows in front of him. Going year-to-year works for both Baker and Crane.
Crane offering General Manager James Click a one-year contract plays as Crane ostensibly not wanting the soon to turn 45 years old Click back, but realizing that dumping the GM fresh off winning it all would not be great optically. So, putting a one-year deal on the table can reasonably be construed as letting Click know if he has a solid longer term opportunity elsewhere, take it. Business is business, and relationships are relationships. Crane does not owe it to Click to give him a long term commitment. You know the Golden Rule: do to others as you would have them do to you. Well, here’s the alternate Golden Rule: he/she who has the most gold makes the rules. If Crane doesn’t like Click’s style or whatever else, regardless of the results, it is his prerogative to move on. Retaining Click on just a one-year contract sure comes across as tantamount to saying “Win the World Series again, or buh-bye.”
Sunday night matchups don't get much exciting than this, as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in prime-time at NRG.
The Lions come into this game on a six-game winning streak looking every bit of the best team in football. Houston on the other hand has lost two of their last three games with a struggling offense unable to protect their quarterback.
CJ Stroud has only one passing touchdown over this span, and is clearly having trouble adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
If Houston is going to come away with an upset victory, they will need big performances from Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. After catching 4 passes against the Colts two weeks ago, Mixon not only failed to catch a single pass against the Jets, but he wasn't even targeted.
Considering the Texans' offensive line issues, choosing not to use Mixon as a pass catcher is hard to fathom. Especially since he and Dell are the team's top 2 playmakers.
What's working in the Texans' favor?
They play this game at home, where they are undefeated this season. A lot of the team's protection issues have popped up on the road, so communication should be easier for the offense on their home turf.
Bulls on Parade
We have good news and bad news about the defense this week. On the positive side, Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmy Ward have returned to practice. If they're able to contribute on Sunday night, that would give the defense a lift.
And now for the bad news. Will Anderson has yet to practice this week after rolling his ankle in the Jets game. If he is unable to practice on Friday, it's hard to imagine he'll be active against Detroit.
X-factors
The Texans have to show some improvement on the offensive line this week.
Houston must lean on Joe Mixon again, as Nico Collins isn't expected to play.
Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, and he does most of his damage from the slot. If the Texans continue to deploy Jalen Pitre against premier receivers in man coverage, St. Brown is going to light up the scoreboard.
What would a win over the Lions mean to Houston?
The Texans are no longer considered a true championship contender because of their losses to the Packers, Vikings, and Jets. In fact, the Bills are the only team with a winning record that the Texans have beaten.
An upset win over the streaking Lions would change that narrative.
What does Vegas think?
The Lions are currently favored by 3.5 and the total is set at 49 points.
Don't miss the full preview of Texans-Lions in the video above!
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