Houston winning the arms race this year
Twirled Series: Astros' pitching continues to show why Houston is the best team of 2022
Nov 4, 2022, 4:56 pm
Houston winning the arms race this year
They may not have finished the regular season with the best overall record in all of MLB, and they may not play in one of the toughest divisions in the league. Yet, the 2022 Houston Astros showed plenty of signs this season that their pitching staff was operating at an elite level, and paired with a more-than-adequate offense, they were the best team in baseball all along.
Pitching their way back into the series
The World Series isn't over yet by any means, with the Astros needing to get the final win in Game 6 or a possible Game 7 to finish things off, but the performance their arms put on in games 4 and 5 has to instill a sense of destiny about what's to come. Let's go back to Game 3, where, due to tipping or not, the Phillies offense completely dismantled Lance McCullers Jr. on their way to handing Houston a disheartening 7-0 loss.
That gave Philadelphia a 2-1 series lead after the first of three games at Citizens Bank Park and left Houston searching for a significant flip of momentum and quick. Boy, they got it, with Cristian Javier righting the ship with his spectacular start, going six hitless innings followed by a non-surprising quality night from the bullpen to finish the combined no-hitter.
The first team to throw a combined no-hitter in #WorldSeries history. pic.twitter.com/ZjKMCaKdZL
— Houston Astros (@astros) November 3, 2022
That tied the series, setting up a big moment for Justin Verlander. After his Game 1 implosion continued his World Series woes, the presumptive Cy Young award winner must've felt some pressure heading into Game 5, knowing that another disappointing start may cost his team the series. Instead, he finally gets his first win in the Fall Classic, making it through five innings while allowing just one run before his bullpen would finish things off for him. Speaking of the bullpen...
Pressly for WS MVP?
Let's talk about Ryan Pressly and his ascension with the Astros. He joined the team via trade in 2018, coming in as a middle-innings reliever. In 2020, then-closer Roberto Osuna suffered an injury, and Houston decided to move Pressly to the closer role. That change has paid massive dividends for the team, and there's been no better display of it than Pressly's performance in this World Series so far.
In Game 1, he enters in a 5-5 tie in the top of the ninth and sits down the nine, one, and two hitters of the Phillies to give Houston a chance at a walk-off, though they would go on to lose in extras. In Game 2, he allows the only hit he's given up to the Phillies, which would score after an error but still held on to finish off the victory that tied the series 1-1.
After not appearing in the lopsided Game 3 loss, he enters in the ninth of Game 4, which despite being a 5-0 game, still had a high level of stress with a combined no-hitter on his shoulders, which he would get across the finish line. Then, the night after finishing that no-no, he has the most impressive outing so far.
In the midst of one of the most stressful games of the year for Houston, their bullpen allows a rare run in the bottom of the eighth, making it a 3-2 game and giving the Phillies a chance to put together a series-defining rally if they could take the lead and go up 3-2 in the series. Dusty Baker opts to trust his closer, bringing in Pressly with runners on first and third with one out in a one-run game, asking him to escape the jam and get a five-out save.
The first batter he faces, Pressly does precisely what he needs to do, getting a three-pitch strikeout to allow any out to end the inning, which he would get against the dangerous Kyle Schwarber to send the game to the ninth with the Astros still in front. Then he's faced with the heart of Philadelphia's order in the bottom of the ninth, with Houston still owning a one-run lead. Strikeout, fly out with a fantastic Chas McCormick assist, a hit batter, then a groundout to win the game.
There will be more offense to consider for Jeremy Peña, Alex Bregman, and others that are also firmly in the discussion should the Astros win the series. Still, with how Pressly's going, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Houston's closer takes home the World Series MVP trophy.
Run the playbook one more time
Before the trophies start getting handed out, Houston needs to check off that final box, which is getting one more win. Their recipe for success continues to be having one of their elite starters get as far into the game and with as minor damage as possible, then trusting their bullpen arms to navigate the rest of the way.
With the uncertainty of a Game 7, the Astros need that playbook to work in Game 6, where they'll have their "other ace," Framber Valdez, on the mound looking to replicate the success he had in Game 2, where he went six and one-thirds innings while allowing just one run. After the day off to rest the bullpen, if he can get into the middle innings with a close game, Dusty Baker will be able to piece together the rest with his cast of near-untouchable arms, and Houston will be champions once more.
As of 9:42 Central Daylight Saving Time Friday night, the Astros (and all other baseball players) are officially the Boys of Summer, officially so far as the season is concerned anyway. When the summer solstice arrived last year the Astros were nine games off the lead in the American League West. So in addressing the rhetorical axiom “what a difference a year makes,” the difference in the Astros’ case is a whopping 14 games as they start the weekend atop their division by five games. At this point in the season last year the Astros’ record in one-run games was a brutal 5-14. In 2025 they are 13-7 in games decided by the narrowest of margins.
That the Astros are just 4-5 in road games against the two worst teams in the American League is no big deal, other than that every game counts in the standings. Still, just as was losing two out of three at the pathetic White Sox earlier this season, it is no doubt disappointing to the Astros to have only gotten a split of their four-game set with the Athletics. The A’s had gone 9-28 in their last 37 games before the Astros arrived in West Sacramento. The former-Oaklanders took the first game and the finale, as the Astros’ offense played bi-polar ball over the four nights. Two stat-padding explosion games that totaled 24 runs and 35 hits were bookended by a puny one-run output Monday and Thursday’s 5-4 10-inning loss. Baseball happens. Nevertheless, as the Astros open their weekend set versus the Angels, they have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games to forge their five-game division lead.
The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and is currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
Hunter Brown pitches opposite Yusei Kikuchi Friday night. Kikuchi was Dana Brown’s big in-season move last season, and Kikuchi was excellent with the Astros which set up to get the three-year 63 million dollar deal he landed with the Halos. After a slow start to his season Kikuchi has been outstanding the past month and a half, with a 2.28 earned run average over his last nine starts. Brown’s 1.88 season ERA is second-best in the big leagues among pitchers with the innings pitched to qualify in the category. Only Pirates’ stud Paul Skenes has a better mark, barely so at 1.85.
Kikuchi was a stellar rental who helped the Astros stretch their consecutive postseasons streak to eight. There was an absurd amount of vitriol over what Dana Brown gave up for him. Joey Loperfido is 26 years old and having a middling season at AAA. Will Wagner is 26 years old and back in the minors after batting .186 with the Blue Jays. Jake Bloss is the one guy who maaaaaybe some day the Astros wish they still had. Bloss is out into 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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