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Why avoiding arbitration with Framber Valdez is a sign of good things to come for Astros
Jan 16, 2023, 5:52 pm
Framber Valdez will earn $6.8 million in 2023. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
Houston Astros whiff on primary free agent target
The Houston Astros avoided arbitration with six players on Friday, one of which was first-year All-Star and left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez.
Houston and Valdez agreed to a one-year, $6.8 million deal for 2023. The Dominican Republic native is coming off his best season yet for the Astros, going 17-6 in his starts during the regular season with a 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 194 strikeouts.
His numbers only continued to be stellar in the postseason as he led the Astros to their second World Series title in franchise history. Valdez, who is 29 years old, has been with the Astros since the 2018 season, and he has shown improvement after each year.
With both sides being able to reach an agreement on a deal, unlike with right fielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Cristian Javier, it could be a positive sign of things to come, and here is why.
Unlike with Tucker and Javier, who according to MLB.com both sides are just off when it comes to what fair value is following each respective player’s 2022 season, the Astros and Valdez were in agreement on what both believed was a fair deal.
Valdez’ 2023 salary will be more than double what he was paid in 2022. With the Astros losing Justin Verlander in the offseason to the New York Mets, Valdez will likely be the team’s No. 1 ace in the new season.
With both sides being on the same page, it shows one, there is mutual respect, and two, it makes it more likely that long-term negotiations could play out the same way. If Valdez and his representation can continue to be in constant communication with the Astros, while being in agreement, there will be less incentive to seek greener pastures elsewhere.
Houston has shown in the past that they are willing to offer extensions to players they're in agreement with before they can hit the open market. The Astros did it with second baseman Jose Altuve years ago in 2013.
The team did it again in 2019 with Alex Bregman, and it also did it in 2021 with Lance McCullers Jr., which is arguably the most comparable situation with that of Valdez.
In comparison, the Astros’ situation with Carlos Correa in 2021 played out differently when both sides were negotiating and there was much more disagreement on what fair value was. Correa left the team in free agency the following year.
While not every situation plays out the same way, history is on the side that favors both Valdez and the Astros coming to a long-term agreement that keeps the pitcher out of the open market. One thing is certain, Valdez will be looking to prove that he is worth being an ace for a perennial World Series contender.
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Former Astros manager Dusty Baker made an appearance last week on a podcast titled The Show With Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman.
One of the things Baker discussed was his limited power in the Astros organization. Dusty spoke about “battles with the front office” and not being able to choose his staff members.
Baker made a point of saying that he basically inherited AJ Hinch's staff, outside one person. And he wished he had more “freedom” in selecting the staff.
To be fair, his comments aren't that surprising. The 'Stros had experienced a lot of success, and wanted to keep as much continuity as possible after firing their GM and manager.
But what we find most interesting about these comments is speculating which staff members Baker would have replaced if given the authority to do so.
The first name that crossed our minds was Joe Espada. Especially since we now know that Espada is the staff member that eventually replaced Dusty.
We also wondered if Baker wasn't happy with the hitting coaches. We know Dusty was old school with his approach to the game. Maybe he wasn't satisfied with how frequently his players swung at the first pitch, and weren't able to work deep counts.
Something that seems to have increased since Baker's departure. Just think how many times Jose Altuve would pop up the first pitch and Yordan Alvarez would be up to bat immediately. Even Alex Bregman's walk rate dropped significantly from last year to this year. Breggy walked 92 times in 2023, compared to just 44 in 2024. Astros GM Dana Brown spoke after the playoff loss to the Tigers about the need to work deeper counts in order to have more competitive at-bats next season.
Plus, if Altuve is going to continue to swing early and often, would it benefit the Astros to drop him down to second in the lineup? Despite stealing 20 bags last year, Altuve will be turning 35 years old in May. At some point, the team is going to rely more on his power hitting than his speed as he continues to age.
The question is, what other options do the Astros have on the roster to leadoff? Kyle Tucker could be a possibility, he has a nice combination of speed and power, and he's almost 7 years younger than 'Tuve.
Or perhaps Brown could find a more prototypical leadoff hitter on the trade market. Someone that wouldn't break the bank, but could get on base at a high clip.
Don't miss the video above for the full in-depth discussion!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.