ASTROS NEXT STEPS

Dynasty interrupted, Houston Astros GM says vision for 2025 is clear

Houston Astros Yordan Alvarez, Dana Brown
Don't be surprised if the Astros shake things up this offseason. Composite Getty Image.

For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros failed to win a playoff game. And that’s not OK with general manager Dana Brown.

A day after the Astros were swept by the Detroit Tigers in their AL Wild Card Series, stopping a streak of seven straight trips to the AL Championship Series, Brown detailed his top priority for the offseason.

“First of all, one of the things we want to make sure we do is get back deep into the postseason,” he said Thursday. “That’s going to be our vision, that’s going to be our focus.”

When it comes to fulfilling that goal, "we’re not taking anything off the table,” he said.

The Astros, who won the World Series in 2017 and 2022, looked as if they might fall short of the playoffs altogether at the beginning of the season. They got off to a 7-19 start, falling 10 games behind Seattle in the AL West. But they finished with an 88-73 record and won their seventh division title in eight years, with the only exception coming in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Manager Joe Espada, who was hired after Dusty Baker retired, was impressed with Houston’s resiliency this season.

“A team gets tested and you see the character of your team,” he said. “Through adversity and the way we were tested early, I knew that this team was strong enough to make a push and get us into the postseason.”

Now they’ll look to return to the playoffs and make another long run next year. The first step could be re-signing star third baseman Alex Bregman. Represented by Scott Boras, the two-time All-Star is eligible for free agency and assuredly will command a hefty new paycheck.

Bregman has spent his entire nine-year career with Houston. He said after Wednesday’s loss to Detroit that he hopes to remain with the team. Second baseman Jose Altuve said he would be “heartbroken” if Bregman were to sign elsewhere.

“We will have some discussions with Boras and also with Bregman,” Brown said. “We’ve had some small talk, but ultimately, we will have some discussions. We know what he means to this organization.”

Houston also could look for an upgrade at first base. José Abreu was released with $20.8 million remaining on his contract after he hit .124 through June 13, and the Astros never found a consistent replacement at the position.

Though Brown repeated his “nothing is off the table” comment when asked if he’d try to add to the rotation, he believes the Astros will be a good spot in that area because of the improvement of their young pitchers this season.

Multiple injuries to Houston’s starters forced the Astros to insert Ronel Blanco and rookie Spencer Arrighetti into the rotation. Blanco threw a no-hitter in his season debut and was second on the team with 13 wins and a 2.80 ERA. Arrighetti made 28 starts and was selected AL Rookie of the Month for August after going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA.

Hunter Brown, in his second MLB season, went 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA to help steady the rotation during a year when three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander made just 17 starts due to injuries.

Dana Brown said Thursday that right-hander Cristian Javier, who had Tommy John surgery in June, is recovering well and they expect him to be ready to pitch by the end of July. Brown called Javier a “pillar” of the rotation after the 27-year-old started 56 games combined in the previous two seasons before this year’s injury limited him to just seven starts.

The development of Houston’s young pitchers combined with the expected return of Javier, José Urquidy and Luis Garcia next season makes it unlikely that the Astros will re-sign Verlander or veteran left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.

The 41-year-old Verlander appears to be headed to free agency after failing to pitch the 140 innings he needed to trigger a $35 million player option on his contract. He didn't make the playoff roster after struggling in his return following a two-month stint on the injured list with a neck injury.

“Justin Verlander has been outstanding in this organization and is a big part of the winning culture in this organization and ultimately it sounds like he wants to come back,” Brown said. “But we’re going to have some discussions with our front office and coach Joe and his staff as to what’s the best thing for the team and how should we go forward.”

He had a similar answer when asked about Kikuchi’s future with the team. He also is eligible for free agency after pitching well for the Astros down the stretch after a July trade from Toronto.

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Can top prospect Brice Matthews give Houston a boost? Composite Getty Image.

What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.

Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.

 

Depth finally runs dry

 

It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.

Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.

But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.

The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.

 

Cracks in the pitching core

 

And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.

Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.

But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.

 

Injury handling under fire

 

Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.

No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.

Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.

 

Pressure mounts on Dana Brown

 

All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.

Brown will need to act — and soon.

At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.

*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!

 

There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.

 

A final test before the break

 

Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.

The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.

There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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