ASTROS NEXT STEPS
Dynasty interrupted, Houston Astros GM says vision for 2025 is clear
Oct 7, 2024, 2:17 pm
Don't be surprised if the Astros shake things up this offseason. Composite Getty Image.
For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros failed to win a playoff game. And that’s not OK with general manager Dana Brown.
A day after the Astros were swept by the Detroit Tigers in their AL Wild Card Series, stopping a streak of seven straight trips to the AL Championship Series, Brown detailed his top priority for the offseason.
“First of all, one of the things we want to make sure we do is get back deep into the postseason,” he said Thursday. “That’s going to be our vision, that’s going to be our focus.”
When it comes to fulfilling that goal, "we’re not taking anything off the table,” he said.
The Astros, who won the World Series in 2017 and 2022, looked as if they might fall short of the playoffs altogether at the beginning of the season. They got off to a 7-19 start, falling 10 games behind Seattle in the AL West. But they finished with an 88-73 record and won their seventh division title in eight years, with the only exception coming in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Manager Joe Espada, who was hired after Dusty Baker retired, was impressed with Houston’s resiliency this season.
“A team gets tested and you see the character of your team,” he said. “Through adversity and the way we were tested early, I knew that this team was strong enough to make a push and get us into the postseason.”
Now they’ll look to return to the playoffs and make another long run next year. The first step could be re-signing star third baseman Alex Bregman. Represented by Scott Boras, the two-time All-Star is eligible for free agency and assuredly will command a hefty new paycheck.
Bregman has spent his entire nine-year career with Houston. He said after Wednesday’s loss to Detroit that he hopes to remain with the team. Second baseman Jose Altuve said he would be “heartbroken” if Bregman were to sign elsewhere.
“We will have some discussions with Boras and also with Bregman,” Brown said. “We’ve had some small talk, but ultimately, we will have some discussions. We know what he means to this organization.”
Houston also could look for an upgrade at first base. José Abreu was released with $20.8 million remaining on his contract after he hit .124 through June 13, and the Astros never found a consistent replacement at the position.
Though Brown repeated his “nothing is off the table” comment when asked if he’d try to add to the rotation, he believes the Astros will be a good spot in that area because of the improvement of their young pitchers this season.
Multiple injuries to Houston’s starters forced the Astros to insert Ronel Blanco and rookie Spencer Arrighetti into the rotation. Blanco threw a no-hitter in his season debut and was second on the team with 13 wins and a 2.80 ERA. Arrighetti made 28 starts and was selected AL Rookie of the Month for August after going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA.
Hunter Brown, in his second MLB season, went 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA to help steady the rotation during a year when three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander made just 17 starts due to injuries.
Dana Brown said Thursday that right-hander Cristian Javier, who had Tommy John surgery in June, is recovering well and they expect him to be ready to pitch by the end of July. Brown called Javier a “pillar” of the rotation after the 27-year-old started 56 games combined in the previous two seasons before this year’s injury limited him to just seven starts.
The development of Houston’s young pitchers combined with the expected return of Javier, José Urquidy and Luis Garcia next season makes it unlikely that the Astros will re-sign Verlander or veteran left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.
The 41-year-old Verlander appears to be headed to free agency after failing to pitch the 140 innings he needed to trigger a $35 million player option on his contract. He didn't make the playoff roster after struggling in his return following a two-month stint on the injured list with a neck injury.
“Justin Verlander has been outstanding in this organization and is a big part of the winning culture in this organization and ultimately it sounds like he wants to come back,” Brown said. “But we’re going to have some discussions with our front office and coach Joe and his staff as to what’s the best thing for the team and how should we go forward.”
He had a similar answer when asked about Kikuchi’s future with the team. He also is eligible for free agency after pitching well for the Astros down the stretch after a July trade from Toronto.
For years, the Astros built their dynasty on precision — smart bets, savvy scouting, and a steady refusal to let emotion cloud judgment. But as the 2025 season rolls into June, that precision feels dulled. Houston still wears the polish of a perennial contender, but underneath, the gears are grinding. A thin lineup, a faltering rotation, and a public misfire in player health management have created a team still standing, but no longer towering.
Houston still has a great chance to win the AL West, thanks more to the division’s mediocrity than its own dominance. But the warning lights are flashing.
Identifying the weak link
The biggest concern right now? It’s hard to choose just one.
The Astros’ offense has been startlingly average — 14th in OPS, 18th in runs scored. When this team had Springer, Correa, Bregman, and peak Altuve, scoring was a given. Now, it’s a grind. Too much depends on too few — and when a key piece like Isaac Paredes slumps, as he has recently, the whole offense stutters.
But the lineup isn’t alone in its inconsistency. The back half of the rotation has become a weak point due to a rash of injuries. With Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown pulling their weight at the top, the drop-off behind them is stark. Houston used to bury teams with pitching depth; now it’s just hoping for enough quality starts to make their elite bullpen matter.
The Yordan situation
And then there’s Yordan Alvarez and his fractured hand.
The slugger’s delayed return raised eyebrows. The lack of clarity around his status raised more. It's hard not to boil this down to outright incompetence.
If this were a one-off, it might be brushed aside. But it’s not. It’s another example of a once-cutting-edge organization starting to look clumsy at the margins.
Wasting prime Framber?
All of this would feel less urgent if Houston were building toward something. The team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker this past offseason spoke volumes. It wasn’t just about resetting the CBT. It was a pivot, a signal that the franchise was playing the long game. And with Framber likely on his way out after this season, the choice to pass on going all-in this year becomes even more glaring.
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