ASTROS HOT STOVE
Examining the ripple effect of an Astros-Verlander divorce
Nov 23, 2022, 3:16 pm
ASTROS HOT STOVE
Justin Verlander had the best possible bounce back year both he and the Houston Astros could have asked for in 2022.
He not only won the American League’s Comeback Player of the Year, he was also the unanimous AL Cy Young Award winner and helped Houston win its second Commissioner’s Trophy in franchise history.
Under any other circumstances, it should be a no-brainer for the Astros to do everything possible to make sure that Verlander is donning the star with the H on his head in 2023, but for Houston and Verlander, now might be the perfect time for both sides to move on.
The 39-year-old ace, who will be 40 by the time Houston’s 2023 season gets under way, is a free agent and according to reports, he is seeking a “Max Scherzer” type of deal, which is around the ballpark of $40 million per year. Verlander played for the Astros on a $25 million deal in 2022.
For the Astros, like any other team, they have areas of weakness that could use a boost and allocating that amount of funding for Verlander is not the wisest long-term decision.
Houston still has Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Hunter Brown on the roster as starting-caliber pitchers, but all are in or nearing arbitration, which means they are all going to need their slice of long-term funding pie sooner or later. Of course, Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., whose long-term deal has already been secured.
Valdez specifically has shown that he has what it takes to be the long-term ace of the Astros, bouncing back from an inconsistent 2021 postseason run with a sensational 2022 run. Valdez was the winning pitcher in Houston’s World Series clinching Game Six. He has shown that a long-term investment could be wiser, and cheaper, to do now rather than a year or two down the road.
Despite Yuli Gurriel’s stellar run in the 2022 postseason, the first baseman struggled offensively for much of the regular season. It was rumored that Houston was heavily interested in Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who opted to stay in New York.
According to a new report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Astros are still eyeing an upgrade at first base, and have shown interest in the former White Sox slugger Jose Abreu. He posted a slashline of .304/.378/.446 in the 2022 season. In comparison, Gurriel posted .242/.288/.360 in 2022. Abreu had a base salary of $18 million in 2022.
One of the glaring weaknesses Houston was able to overcome during its World Series run came at another position, designated hitter.
In a perfect world, Yordan Alvarez would have been Houston’s DH most often than not, but when Michael Brantley went down with an injury, Alvarez was moved to left field, especially in the playoffs.
In the postseason, Houston struggled tremendously to get production from the DH position. Houston could bring back Brantley to address left field, and move Alvarez to DH, but the 35-year-old is coming off arthroscopic labral repair on his right shoulder.
One of the other positions the Astros could focus on is catcher. Defensively, Houston has had the position locked down with Martin Maldonaldo, who is on the books for 2023. However, offensive production at that position has always been a weak spot.
The Astros went out and acquired Christian Vázquez during the season. While he played in spots throughout Houston’s run, he is not on the roster for 2023 as he is an unrestricted free agent.
Willson Contreras, who posted .243/.349/.466 in 2022, is a name the Astros should consider strongly. He has played both left field and catcher, which is just what Houston needs. He had a base salary of $9.63 million for the Chicago Cubs in 2022.
Free agency is always a crazy time. For fans, it will be difficult to see Verlander go. He has been a key figure since 2017 when Houston won its first championship.
He has helped lead Houston to the mountain top, but if Verlander is aiming to get a big payday, which he absolutely has earned, it is in the best interest for the Astros to let him find greener pastures as Houston addresses more glaring needs that can help keep them atop Major League Baseball for 2023 and the years to follow.
Coming off their bye week, the Texans host the Dolphins with big playoff implications at stake. A win over Miami paired with a Colts loss secures another playoff berth for Houston.
Injuries will be a factor in this contest, with guard Juice Scruggs (foot) expected to be unavailable and safety Jalen Pitre now out for the year with a pectoral injury.
The Texans will also be without LB Azeez Al-Shaair (suspension), but a glimmer of hope has arrived as LB Christian Harris has returned to practice after missing the entire season up to this point.
Houston #Texans Thursday Injury Report for Week 15 vs. the Miami Dolphins: pic.twitter.com/7cDUTFbFZV
— Houston Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 12, 2024
Left guard Kenyon Green has also returned to practice and could be available this Sunday as well. If he's not, look for Zach Thomas, who was claimed off waivers from the Patriots about a month ago, to step in. Offensive line play and protection in general will be a main area of focus once again, as the Texans are arguably the worst in the NFL in this category.
This is most damning set of stats I've seen regarding the #Texans offense.
From no. 1 to no. 20 - 4.7% gap
From no. 21 to no. 31 - 4.9% gap
From no. 31 to Texans - 4.9% gap
Last in blown blocks by more than 1 BB per game.
Last in QB pressures & 50 more BB+PR than any other team https://t.co/vwAS16Diay
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) December 11, 2024
As you can see from the graphic above, the Texans have blown a block or allowed a pressure on over 30% of their offensive plays, and the next closest team is the Bears at 25.4 %.
Speaking of blocking, the Texans face three of the best teams against the run down the stretch (Chiefs, Ravens, Titans). With that being the case, let's hope that Stroud and the Texans found some answers in the passing game during the bye week.
If the Texans can keep Stroud upright, perhaps we see a resurgence from Tank Dell, who has seemingly disappeared from the offense. Tank hasn't scored since October 13, and has only recorded one game with over 100 yards all season.
Swarm!
On defense, the Texans will have their hands full with the Dolphins explosive offense. Miami has scored 32 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.
The Texans are averaging just under 24 PPG this season, so they could really use a breakout game from the offense to help cement a victory.
Houston has the best duo of pass rushers in the league, but they will be challenged against Tua Tagovailoa, who gets rid of the ball extremely quickly and accurately.
Tua also has two speedsters in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle that can take a short pass to the house at any given moment. Speed could be the difference in this contest, but the Texans do have two corners in Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter that are both Top 3 in lowest catch rate allowed this year.
DBs with the lowest Catch Rate Allowed this season 🔒
1. Kamari Lassiter - 42.0%
2. Nate Wiggins - 43.8%
3. Derek Stingley Jr. - 44.6%
4. Donte Jackson - 49.1%
5. Kristian Fulton - 50.0%
6. Jakorian Bennett - 51.1%
7. Jaylon Johnson - 51.2%
8. Denzel Ward - 51.9%
9. Jaycee Horn… https://t.co/muJHduiHQn pic.twitter.com/nVJlKYsWwc
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 11, 2024
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by 3 points and the total is set at 46.5, which is the third-highest this week.
Don't miss the video above as we break down this week's game, the final stretch of the season, and much more!
Also, be sure to watch Texans on Tap with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan live following every Texans game on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel!