ASTROS HOT STOVE
Examining the ripple effect of an Astros-Verlander divorce
Nov 23, 2022, 3:16 pm
Justin Verlander is about to get paid! Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Justin Verlander had the best possible bounce back year both he and the Houston Astros could have asked for in 2022.
He not only won the American League’s Comeback Player of the Year, he was also the unanimous AL Cy Young Award winner and helped Houston win its second Commissioner’s Trophy in franchise history.
Under any other circumstances, it should be a no-brainer for the Astros to do everything possible to make sure that Verlander is donning the star with the H on his head in 2023, but for Houston and Verlander, now might be the perfect time for both sides to move on.
The 39-year-old ace, who will be 40 by the time Houston’s 2023 season gets under way, is a free agent and according to reports, he is seeking a “Max Scherzer” type of deal, which is around the ballpark of $40 million per year. Verlander played for the Astros on a $25 million deal in 2022.
For the Astros, like any other team, they have areas of weakness that could use a boost and allocating that amount of funding for Verlander is not the wisest long-term decision.
Houston still has Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Hunter Brown on the roster as starting-caliber pitchers, but all are in or nearing arbitration, which means they are all going to need their slice of long-term funding pie sooner or later. Of course, Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., whose long-term deal has already been secured.
Valdez specifically has shown that he has what it takes to be the long-term ace of the Astros, bouncing back from an inconsistent 2021 postseason run with a sensational 2022 run. Valdez was the winning pitcher in Houston’s World Series clinching Game Six. He has shown that a long-term investment could be wiser, and cheaper, to do now rather than a year or two down the road.
Despite Yuli Gurriel’s stellar run in the 2022 postseason, the first baseman struggled offensively for much of the regular season. It was rumored that Houston was heavily interested in Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who opted to stay in New York.
According to a new report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Astros are still eyeing an upgrade at first base, and have shown interest in the former White Sox slugger Jose Abreu. He posted a slashline of .304/.378/.446 in the 2022 season. In comparison, Gurriel posted .242/.288/.360 in 2022. Abreu had a base salary of $18 million in 2022.
One of the glaring weaknesses Houston was able to overcome during its World Series run came at another position, designated hitter.
In a perfect world, Yordan Alvarez would have been Houston’s DH most often than not, but when Michael Brantley went down with an injury, Alvarez was moved to left field, especially in the playoffs.
In the postseason, Houston struggled tremendously to get production from the DH position. Houston could bring back Brantley to address left field, and move Alvarez to DH, but the 35-year-old is coming off arthroscopic labral repair on his right shoulder.
One of the other positions the Astros could focus on is catcher. Defensively, Houston has had the position locked down with Martin Maldonaldo, who is on the books for 2023. However, offensive production at that position has always been a weak spot.
The Astros went out and acquired Christian Vázquez during the season. While he played in spots throughout Houston’s run, he is not on the roster for 2023 as he is an unrestricted free agent.
Willson Contreras, who posted .243/.349/.466 in 2022, is a name the Astros should consider strongly. He has played both left field and catcher, which is just what Houston needs. He had a base salary of $9.63 million for the Chicago Cubs in 2022.
Free agency is always a crazy time. For fans, it will be difficult to see Verlander go. He has been a key figure since 2017 when Houston won its first championship.
He has helped lead Houston to the mountain top, but if Verlander is aiming to get a big payday, which he absolutely has earned, it is in the best interest for the Astros to let him find greener pastures as Houston addresses more glaring needs that can help keep them atop Major League Baseball for 2023 and the years to follow.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.