THE PALLILOG
Here are some refreshingly candid solutions to treat Astros ails
May 4, 2023, 1:45 pm
The return of Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley can't come soon enough. Photo by Getty Images.
Houston Astros title defense could come down to 3 critical factors
The most important variable in all our lives is health, so it's obviously a massive one for sports teams. The Astros likely feel like that they've had more than their share of reminders about that variable so far this season, since health problems have reduced the Astros as currently comprised to a rather average team. Their 16-15 record reflects that as the Astros hit the road for a three city nine game trip with stops in Seattle, Anaheim, and Chicago.
Losing 40 percent of the starting rotation to injury within 24 hours is a problem even for the best of ball clubs. Frankly, the Astros have to be holding their breath hoping that Luis Garcia isn't done for the season. A pitcher leaving in pain with an elbow injury is always ominous. At minimum Garcia will be down several weeks. Jose Urquidy's shoulder injury doesn't seem quite as scary but who knows. We do know he's out for at least the better part of a month. It is faint consolation that it's Urquidy and Garcia who are sidelined rather than Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier.
Is help on the way?
For several reasons the Astros have one of the weaker farm systems among the 30 MLB franchises. Even at this still early stage of the season it's no fluke that all of the Astros' minor league teams have losing records. They have no replacements in their system presently worthy of spots in a Major League starting rotation, although that doesn't preclude guys from rising to the occasion when opportunity grants one. Brandon Bielak is an organizational depth guy, not a number four starter.
After a couple strong outings at AAA Sugar Land, Forrest Whitley has been poor in his last three getting knocked around for 13 earned runs in 13 innings, leaving the formerly elite prospect's earned run average at 6.00. Maybe a J.P. France comes through. France is off to a good start with the Space Cowboys albeit over just 19 1/3 innings. France is not a potentially blossoming young stud. He's 28 years old with a track record of poor control.
With Lance McCullers still not close to returning (and not exactly a great bet to stay healthy after he does return), if the worst case scenario plays out for Garcia and/or Urquidy is to be out a while, General Manager Dana Brown gets his first real scrutiny since getting the job. Brown has to be in the market for a decent back of the rotation starter.
For all that, plenty of teams would swap their top three starters for Valdez-Javier-Hunter Brown. Many teams, including good ones, scuffle to get good performance from fourth and fifth starters. Still, the Astros' rotation and hence the team are not close to as good as last year's World Series Champions.
On the mend
On the brighter side, Jose Altuve sounds on schedule for return within a month or so. As well as Mauricio Dubon has done while filling in for Altuve, he has truly only been really good when measured against Dubon's own career beforehand. His productivity has not been close to what Altuve has delivered year in year out, with the exception of Altuve's dreadful short 2020 season. Dubon's 20 game hitting streak was fun and impressive, and his .303 batting average entering this weekend is obviously good, perhaps borderline stunning. However, Dubon has drawn a laughable three walks in 114 plate appearances and has minimal power. His .710 OPS is good for Dubon but not good for a lead-off hitter, and more than 100 points lower than Altuve's worst season since 2013 except for 2020.
Michael Brantley's return is imminent, and while expectations need to be reasonable for a guy who turns 36 in less than two weeks, adding a platoon professional left-handed hitter to the lineup should be a boost. Dusty Baker DHing David Hensley and Rylan Bannon over Yainer Diaz in recent days was head-scratching at least and absurd at worst, but it shines a light on the Astros' thinned out depth. Corey Julks has had some nice moments but is another member of the swing at almost anything club. 83 plate appearances, one walk drawn.
All those guys bat right-handed. Brantley probably adds little power at this point but the man knows his way around the strike zone. Save for 2016 when Brantley played in only 11 games because of his prior major shoulder injury, he last produced an on base percentage lower than .357 in 2013. So far this season, among the 10 Astros with at least 50 plate appearances only Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have OBPs of .340 or better, and both those guys have tailed off lately. Batting Brantley second should also help Dusty grasp that it is daffy to continue slotting Jose Abreu in the cleanup spot most games until/unless Abreu breaks out of washed up mode, which has his OPS at a sub-feeble .531. Alex Bregman hasn't been nearly as bad as Abreu but Bregman batting .212 with a .683 OPS is another lineup problem.
It finally happened!
Perhaps it is forced irony that the week some of the roof caved in on the Astros' starting rotation, it was about darn time that the Astros had Minute Maid Park's roof open Tuesday for the first time all season. They lamely wasted multiple nights of gorgeous weather earlier this season. That home field advantage is greater with the roof closed is a dubious claim to begin with, absolutely dubious on a weekday evening in April or May.
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It should come as no surprise that after a slow start to the season, fans and media are starting to voice concerns about the organization's leadership and direction. The latest evidence of this involved Astros adviser Reggie Jackson and the comments he made on Jon Heyman's podcast, The Show.
Jackson discussed the Astros reported interest in starting pitcher Blake Snell. He said that ultimately, Snell was looking for a deal the Astros weren't comfortable with in terms of money and structure of the contract.
Which is interesting considering the Astros were okay with paying 5-years, $95 million for closer Josh Hader, but not willing to pay Snell 2-years, $62 million. We believe the opt-outs in Snell's contract were a dealbreaker for Houston. And of course the money played a role.
However, the Astros passing on Snell is not the intriguing part of the story. It was Jackson talking about the club's power structure in the front office and how they go about making decisions.
“Being fiscally responsible is what kicked us out of the Snell deal… That's too much for him… Between the 4 or 5 people who make decisions with the Astros, we don't play that game,” said Jackson.
Based on Jackson's comments in the interview, the decision makers are Jim Crane, Dana Brown, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and Reggie. But not necessarily in that order. He also mentioned that they had conversations with manager Joe Espada and his staff, plus some input from the analytics department.
These comments add to the concerns we've had about the front office since Crane moved on from GM James Click and operated without a general manager for several months. Which led to the disastrous signing of Jose Abreu and to a lesser extent Rafael Montero.
Which begs the question, are the Astros in a better spot now with their front office? Many blame Dana Brown for the state of the starting rotation. While there were some red flags this spring, anticipating injuries to Jose Urquidy, Justin Verlander, and Framber Valdez is asking a lot.
But only bringing in Hader to replace all the innings left behind by Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryne Stanek always felt risky.
Finally, what can the Astros due in the short-term to weather the storm while Framber and JV rehab from injury?
And is Hunter Brown the biggest liability in the rotation?
Be sure to watch the video above for the full in-depth discussion.