THE PALLILOG
Here are some refreshingly candid solutions to treat Astros ails
May 4, 2023, 1:45 pm
The return of Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley can't come soon enough. Photo by Getty Images.
Houston Astros title defense could come down to 3 critical factors
The most important variable in all our lives is health, so it's obviously a massive one for sports teams. The Astros likely feel like that they've had more than their share of reminders about that variable so far this season, since health problems have reduced the Astros as currently comprised to a rather average team. Their 16-15 record reflects that as the Astros hit the road for a three city nine game trip with stops in Seattle, Anaheim, and Chicago.
Losing 40 percent of the starting rotation to injury within 24 hours is a problem even for the best of ball clubs. Frankly, the Astros have to be holding their breath hoping that Luis Garcia isn't done for the season. A pitcher leaving in pain with an elbow injury is always ominous. At minimum Garcia will be down several weeks. Jose Urquidy's shoulder injury doesn't seem quite as scary but who knows. We do know he's out for at least the better part of a month. It is faint consolation that it's Urquidy and Garcia who are sidelined rather than Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier.
Is help on the way?
For several reasons the Astros have one of the weaker farm systems among the 30 MLB franchises. Even at this still early stage of the season it's no fluke that all of the Astros' minor league teams have losing records. They have no replacements in their system presently worthy of spots in a Major League starting rotation, although that doesn't preclude guys from rising to the occasion when opportunity grants one. Brandon Bielak is an organizational depth guy, not a number four starter.
After a couple strong outings at AAA Sugar Land, Forrest Whitley has been poor in his last three getting knocked around for 13 earned runs in 13 innings, leaving the formerly elite prospect's earned run average at 6.00. Maybe a J.P. France comes through. France is off to a good start with the Space Cowboys albeit over just 19 1/3 innings. France is not a potentially blossoming young stud. He's 28 years old with a track record of poor control.
With Lance McCullers still not close to returning (and not exactly a great bet to stay healthy after he does return), if the worst case scenario plays out for Garcia and/or Urquidy is to be out a while, General Manager Dana Brown gets his first real scrutiny since getting the job. Brown has to be in the market for a decent back of the rotation starter.
For all that, plenty of teams would swap their top three starters for Valdez-Javier-Hunter Brown. Many teams, including good ones, scuffle to get good performance from fourth and fifth starters. Still, the Astros' rotation and hence the team are not close to as good as last year's World Series Champions.
On the mend
On the brighter side, Jose Altuve sounds on schedule for return within a month or so. As well as Mauricio Dubon has done while filling in for Altuve, he has truly only been really good when measured against Dubon's own career beforehand. His productivity has not been close to what Altuve has delivered year in year out, with the exception of Altuve's dreadful short 2020 season. Dubon's 20 game hitting streak was fun and impressive, and his .303 batting average entering this weekend is obviously good, perhaps borderline stunning. However, Dubon has drawn a laughable three walks in 114 plate appearances and has minimal power. His .710 OPS is good for Dubon but not good for a lead-off hitter, and more than 100 points lower than Altuve's worst season since 2013 except for 2020.
Michael Brantley's return is imminent, and while expectations need to be reasonable for a guy who turns 36 in less than two weeks, adding a platoon professional left-handed hitter to the lineup should be a boost. Dusty Baker DHing David Hensley and Rylan Bannon over Yainer Diaz in recent days was head-scratching at least and absurd at worst, but it shines a light on the Astros' thinned out depth. Corey Julks has had some nice moments but is another member of the swing at almost anything club. 83 plate appearances, one walk drawn.
All those guys bat right-handed. Brantley probably adds little power at this point but the man knows his way around the strike zone. Save for 2016 when Brantley played in only 11 games because of his prior major shoulder injury, he last produced an on base percentage lower than .357 in 2013. So far this season, among the 10 Astros with at least 50 plate appearances only Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have OBPs of .340 or better, and both those guys have tailed off lately. Batting Brantley second should also help Dusty grasp that it is daffy to continue slotting Jose Abreu in the cleanup spot most games until/unless Abreu breaks out of washed up mode, which has his OPS at a sub-feeble .531. Alex Bregman hasn't been nearly as bad as Abreu but Bregman batting .212 with a .683 OPS is another lineup problem.
It finally happened!
Perhaps it is forced irony that the week some of the roof caved in on the Astros' starting rotation, it was about darn time that the Astros had Minute Maid Park's roof open Tuesday for the first time all season. They lamely wasted multiple nights of gorgeous weather earlier this season. That home field advantage is greater with the roof closed is a dubious claim to begin with, absolutely dubious on a weekday evening in April or May.
Looking for more Astros coverage?
Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Jets interview Houston Texans coordinator for their head coach vacancy
Jan 17, 2025, 3:11 pm
When DeMeco Ryans became coach of the Houston Texans before last season, the two-time Pro Bowl linebacker brought his swarm defense with him.
It’s an identity the Texans have embraced as they prepare for their second straight trip to the divisional round of the playoffs Saturday where they’ll face the Kansas City Chiefs.
“You really can’t go out there if you’re not about it,” Ryans said.
And while every member of the defense has bought into Ryans’ aggressive style, there is one player who epitomizes it like no one else.
“Will every time,” cornerback Derek Stingley said of defensive end Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson, last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, has taken his game to another level this season and had 1½ sacks last week after piling up 11 in the regular season.
He described what playing swarm defense means to him.
“Do whatever it takes to get the ball, attacking the ball,” Anderson said. “We’ve got this saying in our D-line room; ‘who gonna pop it off?’ Whoever pops it off first, that’s swarming. Like who’s gonna make the big play? And I feel like there’s a lot of guys on defense that pop it off, who swarm.”
The Texans intercepted Justin Herbert a career-high four times, including one which was returned for a score, in last week’s win over the Chargers after he had been picked off just three times all season. Houston’s four takeaways in the first week of the playoffs are tied with Philadelphia for most in the NFL.
That performance came after Houston ranked fifth in the league in the regular season by forcing 29 turnovers.
Stingley, who had two of the interceptions last week a day after earning AP All-Pro honors, shared his mindset on the team’s defensive mentality.
“It really just comes down to if I was to tell you this is the last time you’re gonna do something, how you gonna do it,” Stingley said. “It’s simple as that. Just do that every single play.”
Ryans said there’s really no secret to why his team has such a knack for forcing turnovers. He believes it’s because he has good players, and they emphasize it in practice which translates to games.
“That’s our main thing that we go into every week is talking about attacking the football, taking the football,” Ryans said. “Because we know, when you take the football away, it just raises your percentages of winning the football games… it’s the defense helping the team win the game.”
While all of Houston’s takeaways last week came on interceptions, Stingley was quick to point out that those picks wouldn’t have happened if not for the pressure the defensive line put on Herbert. The Texans sacked him four times and hit him another nine in the 32-12 victory.
“The defense starts with them up front,” Stingley said. “They’re doing their job and it just makes it easier for us on the back end.”
Anderson said with each turnover, the defense got more and more amped up and was pushing each other to see who the next player would be to force one.
“That’s just that swarm mentality and we just feeding off each other,” Anderson said. “This person can’t do it by themselves so who is gonna be next and that just generates that contagious energy.”
The Texans were the fifth team since 1963 to have at least four sacks, four interceptions and an interception return for a touchdown in a playoff game last week. The past three teams to do it all went on to win the Super Bowl, with Tampa Bay doing so in the 2002 season, Baltimore in 2000 and San Francisco in 1989.
This Texans team would love to keep that going. But first they’ll need a win Saturday to put them in the AFC championship game for the first time after losing their previous five divisional matchups.
“That’s what you come here for,” Anderson said. “That’s what they’ve been rebuilding for is moments like this… we’ve got all the right pieces, we’ve just got to go out there and make it happen.”