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How Jeremy Peña's injury could impact his case for ROY

Astros Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena
Peña looks like the real deal. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images.

The MLB season is one of the more unique grinds in sports. Teams have to navigate the challenge of staying successful over a lengthy 162-game period that can be full of hot streaks, cold streaks, untimely injuries, and timely breakouts. While the goal for most seems to be getting a team that is "built for October," there's still the chance that the team that is better on paper will fall at the hands of one that, for some untold reason, owns more momentum.

This same phenomenon happens in the ebbs and flows of the regular season, as powerful teams deal with sudden futility to play to their normal level, and weaker clubs break out to get unexpected winning streaks against tough opponents. Pair these occurrences with the expected outcomes the rest of the time, as in good teams playing above .500 and bad ones below, and it's no surprise that we always end up with thrilling races for playoff spots come September.

Will injury hurt Peña's ROY case?

Jeremy Peña landed awkwardly earlier this week while trying to field a ball against the Rangers. While remaining in the game, he ultimately landed on the 10-day IL the next day. Luckily the Astros have said that there is no structural damage and view it as a minor injury, but his thumb discomfort will keep him from swinging a bat for a week and out of the lineup until the ten-day period is over.

Going into June, Houston's rookie shortstop was leading the polls for American League Rookie of the Year, ahead of Seattle's Julio Rodriguez. The most recent poll shows Rodriguez edging ahead of Peña with enough overall votes to grab the top spot, meaning a chance for that gap to widen the longer he is off the field. His absence isn't just putting Houston down a star rookie, though; in fact, it removes one of their best all-around players on the entire roster. Ideally, the Astros' outlook is accurate, and a short trip to the IL can give him time to reload for a final push that could end with Houston's third ROY in the last eight seasons.

Houston's record is strong, but are they firing on all cylinders?

As of June 16th, the Astros currently have the fifth-best record in baseball at 39-24. If you do the math, that means that 63 games are in the books, with more than half the season, 99 games to be exact, still to go. In Houston's case, they've had a bit of it all so far in 2022, starting the year off with an 11-11 underperformance (by their standards and expectations) followed by rattling off eleven wins in a row to get to 22-11.

Since then, though, it's been more of a slow maintenance of their winning record and division lead, with a 17-13 record over their last 30 to reach where they sit now. Looking even more recent, they are an even 5-5 over their last ten, including disappointing series losses to the Mariners and Marlins at home. Although total record trumps everything else, it is worth noting that in terms of series outcomes, Houston sits at 10-8-1 this year.

If you thought Houston's offense would take a hit in 2022, you'd be correct, but it's not because of losing Carlos Correa; it's because the Astros' lineup currently has some holes. We've already documented how they've struggled with runners in scoring position in 2022, and that remains the case with the Astros in 23rd with a .236 average in those situations (the Mets lead the MLB at .288). The overpowering lineup that in recent years was characterized as "having no easy outs" isn't the same thus far this season, with notable struggles from Yuli Gurriel (.218), Alex Bregman (.214), and the catcher position (.141 for Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro combined).

The positive news offensively is that Yordan Alvarez continues to have a monster season, and linking him with Kyle Tucker in the middle of the order has been the difference maker in games recently where they've been able to drive in runs via timely hits and long balls. Michael Brantley is also swinging the bat well of late, currently riding an eleven-game hitting streak of which six were multi-hit affairs giving him a .429 average in June so far.

Houston's pitching continues to do very well in 2022, with no better evidence than the historic moment in Wednesday's game where Luis Garcia and Phil Maton became the first pitching duo to toss immaculate innings in the same game and against the same three batters. Justin Verlander's comeback story remains the hot topic, though, as he continues to lead the league with his 0.81 WHIP and sits at an 8-2 record with a 1.94 ERA.

Formidable schedule ahead

After this weekend's three-game set against the 30-31 White Sox, the Astros will enter a nine-game stretch against the league's current two best teams: the Mets and the Yankees. It's no question that the Yankees are the team to beat right now, as they not only have a great team on paper, but they've had the momentum to power them to long winning streaks too. The Mets, meanwhile, have been more of the slow dominance, winning most of their series but with fewer streaks.

It provides Houston with a pivotal opportunity as we near the season's halfway point. If they come out ahead, which will likely take a full-team effort, that may be the positive momentum boost to help some of the struggling facets of their roster to move past any mental barriers holding them back today. If they are unsuccessful in those games, it could give them some specific areas to try and optimize for later in the year and potentially the postseason, making them better too. In any case, it should be fun to watch.

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The Texans are back in action next week against the Dolphins. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

C.J. Stroud faced criticism in Houston's last few games as the Texans hit a rough patch after losing just two of their first eight games.

But the second-year quarterback remained confident and his strong performance last Sunday helped the Texans (8-5) to a 23-20 win over the Jaguars to enter their bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.

“When he is leading and playing the way he is playing, our entire team feeds off of him,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “I am excited for his second year. I think he is showing a ton of growth, he is in a really great spot for us physically, mentally. I really love where he is and I am excited to see how he comes back after the break.”

Stroud threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville to leave him ranked fourth in the NFL with 3,117 yards passing this season. That game came after he threw two interceptions in a 32-27 loss to Tennessee a week before for the team’s third loss in four games.

Those two interceptions brought his season total to nine, which are four more than he threw in 15 games a rookie. But the Texans aren’t worried about that statistic and believe he has grown in his second year.

“He’s made a lot of progress,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “There are some plays, like all of our players, that we probably wish he could have back, but happy he’s our quarterback, happy with what he brings to the table. ... Wouldn’t want anyone else leading this team.”

The Texans are in position to win their division for a second straight season despite dealing with several significant injuries on offense. Running back Joe Mixon missed three games early with an ankle injury and leading receiver Nico Collins was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury.

They also lost four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs for the season when tore an ACL in Week 8.

Mixon leads the team with 887 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and has added four touchdown receptions. His work in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati has helped the team deal with those significant injuries to the receiving corps.

Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing in seven games.

Stroud has continually raved about Mixon’s contributions on and off the field.

“He’s a servant, a helper,” Stroud said. “That’s ultimately what I want to be as well. Who can I serve and how can I help? That’s ultimately what the game of football is.”

While Mixon has been the team’s most important new acquisition on offense, Danielle Hunter has been Houston’s new defensive star. The defensive end spent his first eight seasons in Minnesota before joining the Texans this year.

He has helped Houston lead the NFL with 84 tackles for loss after piling up 15 this season, which is tied for third most in the league. He also leads the Texans with 10½ sacks to help them rank second with 42.

Hunter been a great addition to a team that already had defensive end Will Anderson Jr., last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson ranks second to Hunter on the team with 13 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks.

Ryans said this week’s break is much needed for a team that opened the preseason on Aug. 1 in the Hall of Fame game.

“It’s here and we’re going to take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been going at it for a long time.”

The Texans need to recharge this week with a brutal stretch of three games in 10 days when they return from their bye. Houston hosts Miami on Dec. 15 before a trip to Kansas City on Dec. 21 and a visit from the Ravens on Christmas Day.

“It’s Christmas and all that, but we can’t worry about that. All we can do is focus on Miami,” Caserio said. “And then when we get through the Miami game, then we kind of turn the page to the next. ... We’re either going to earn it or we’re not. Not to oversimplify it, but that’s the truth.”

The Texans will play those game without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair after he received a three-game suspension for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, which led to a concussion.

Al-Shaair will be eligible to return for Houston’s regular-season finale against Tennessee.

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