THE PALLILOG
Latest evidence indicates Houston Astros owner isn’t playing games
Dec 1, 2022, 6:43 pm
Astros owner Jim Crane is ready to spend. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.
It’s still autumn for another three weeks but Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings get going this Sunday in San Diego. The Astros didn’t wait until then to crank up the burner on the Hot Stove League. The next week could find resolution to Justin Verlander’s future amidst billions of dollars worth of moves.
Interesting remarks from Not General Manager Jeff Bagwell this week. Bagwell remains the greatest offensive player in Astros’ history. He was a brilliant and smart player. But Baggy’s assertion that the Astros were too numbers geeky under the pushed out James Click is silly. Unless you somehow think the Astros were underachievers the past couple of years. If anything Jeff Luhnow was more hardcore analytics oriented than Click. It was Click who beefed up the number of old school bird dogs on the road scouting talent after Luhnow had slashed the staff to one of the smallest numbers in MLB. Deep use of analytics, breathtaking talent, and the development of pitchers (using analytics) are the roots of what built this Astros’ juggernaut.
The Abreu effect?
Long ago Astros General Manager Gerry Hunsicker said his biggest mistake while here was losing outfielder Bobby Abreu in the expansion draft to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays after the 1997 season. The D-Rays were dumb enough to immediately trade Abreu to the Phillies for an offensively feeble shortstop named Kevin Stocker who three years later was out of baseball. Abreu went on to have a tremendous career with a .395 on base percentage, eight times driving in 100 or more runs in a season, eight times scoring 100 or more runs. I’m not saying Bobby Abreu is a Hall of Famer but he has some worthy credentials, and was damn sure better than some other outfielders in the Hall (ahem, Harold Baines and Lloyd Waner to name two).
Anyway, 25 years later it’s not as if the Astros are making up for Gerry’s Abreu gaffe, but they have nearly cornered the market on Abreus. After the All-Star break this year Bryan Abreu was a devastatingly effective relief pitcher who strengthened the Astros’ already outstanding bullpen. Abreu’s earned run average post-break was 0.66, which he followed with a 0.00 ERA over 11 1/3 postseason innings.
Now the Astros have added Jose Abreu to their lineup. Going three years on the contract (at 19.5 million dollars per) to sign him is one year longer than ideal, but it closed the deal on what right now anyway is a terrific addition. Yes Abreu turns 36 next month and older guys can lose it in a hurry. It happened to Yuli Gurriel in 2022. Abreu’s power fell off a cliff the last two months of last season. He mustered just one home run over his last 55 games played. On the other hand, over those 55 games Abreu had a .310 batting average and .372 on base percentage. Over nine seasons with the Chicago White Sox he’s been a quality and durable performer. Yuli’s career OPS is .776. In his worst season Abreu’s OPS was .798. He posted an .824 OPS in 2022. It’s a huge offensive upgrade over “La Pina.” Defense is another matter, but the net result is the best gets better.
All business
Jim Crane isn’t fiddling around. The Astros are more than fine with their present roster, but Crane says they’re not done. Remember, the Astros’ 2022 payroll was lower than it was in 2021. Revenues will be at record levels in 2023. Maybe they just re-sign Gurriel and/or Michael Brantley for reduced roles. It would almost seem unfair to the rest of the American League if the Astros land Brandon Nimmo as a perfect fit lefthanded hitting centerfielder. Or, if you prefer a two-fer how about Willson Contreras to take a chunk of the catching and designated hitter duties, with Cody Bellinger as an on the cheaper side flyer. Bellinger’s offense has been laughingstock bad the last two seasons, but the former National League Rookie of the Year (2017) and NL Most Valuable Player (2019) is still only 27 years old, and is a superior defensive player at both first base and in the outfield. Bellinger was among the more outspoken “The Astros are evil cheats!” guys, but Astros fans would need to get over that if he joins (well, provided he plays at least halfway decently). What, Dodger or Yankee fans won’t root for Carlos Correa if he signs with them?
Everything the Astros are considering/doing is foremost about winning World Series number three. Just for fun though, I close noting that the MLB record for most wins in a regular season is 116.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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