THE PALLILOG
Latest evidence indicates Houston Astros owner isn’t playing games
Dec 1, 2022, 6:43 pm
Astros owner Jim Crane is ready to spend. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.
It’s still autumn for another three weeks but Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings get going this Sunday in San Diego. The Astros didn’t wait until then to crank up the burner on the Hot Stove League. The next week could find resolution to Justin Verlander’s future amidst billions of dollars worth of moves.
Interesting remarks from Not General Manager Jeff Bagwell this week. Bagwell remains the greatest offensive player in Astros’ history. He was a brilliant and smart player. But Baggy’s assertion that the Astros were too numbers geeky under the pushed out James Click is silly. Unless you somehow think the Astros were underachievers the past couple of years. If anything Jeff Luhnow was more hardcore analytics oriented than Click. It was Click who beefed up the number of old school bird dogs on the road scouting talent after Luhnow had slashed the staff to one of the smallest numbers in MLB. Deep use of analytics, breathtaking talent, and the development of pitchers (using analytics) are the roots of what built this Astros’ juggernaut.
The Abreu effect?
Long ago Astros General Manager Gerry Hunsicker said his biggest mistake while here was losing outfielder Bobby Abreu in the expansion draft to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays after the 1997 season. The D-Rays were dumb enough to immediately trade Abreu to the Phillies for an offensively feeble shortstop named Kevin Stocker who three years later was out of baseball. Abreu went on to have a tremendous career with a .395 on base percentage, eight times driving in 100 or more runs in a season, eight times scoring 100 or more runs. I’m not saying Bobby Abreu is a Hall of Famer but he has some worthy credentials, and was damn sure better than some other outfielders in the Hall (ahem, Harold Baines and Lloyd Waner to name two).
Anyway, 25 years later it’s not as if the Astros are making up for Gerry’s Abreu gaffe, but they have nearly cornered the market on Abreus. After the All-Star break this year Bryan Abreu was a devastatingly effective relief pitcher who strengthened the Astros’ already outstanding bullpen. Abreu’s earned run average post-break was 0.66, which he followed with a 0.00 ERA over 11 1/3 postseason innings.
Now the Astros have added Jose Abreu to their lineup. Going three years on the contract (at 19.5 million dollars per) to sign him is one year longer than ideal, but it closed the deal on what right now anyway is a terrific addition. Yes Abreu turns 36 next month and older guys can lose it in a hurry. It happened to Yuli Gurriel in 2022. Abreu’s power fell off a cliff the last two months of last season. He mustered just one home run over his last 55 games played. On the other hand, over those 55 games Abreu had a .310 batting average and .372 on base percentage. Over nine seasons with the Chicago White Sox he’s been a quality and durable performer. Yuli’s career OPS is .776. In his worst season Abreu’s OPS was .798. He posted an .824 OPS in 2022. It’s a huge offensive upgrade over “La Pina.” Defense is another matter, but the net result is the best gets better.
All business
Jim Crane isn’t fiddling around. The Astros are more than fine with their present roster, but Crane says they’re not done. Remember, the Astros’ 2022 payroll was lower than it was in 2021. Revenues will be at record levels in 2023. Maybe they just re-sign Gurriel and/or Michael Brantley for reduced roles. It would almost seem unfair to the rest of the American League if the Astros land Brandon Nimmo as a perfect fit lefthanded hitting centerfielder. Or, if you prefer a two-fer how about Willson Contreras to take a chunk of the catching and designated hitter duties, with Cody Bellinger as an on the cheaper side flyer. Bellinger’s offense has been laughingstock bad the last two seasons, but the former National League Rookie of the Year (2017) and NL Most Valuable Player (2019) is still only 27 years old, and is a superior defensive player at both first base and in the outfield. Bellinger was among the more outspoken “The Astros are evil cheats!” guys, but Astros fans would need to get over that if he joins (well, provided he plays at least halfway decently). What, Dodger or Yankee fans won’t root for Carlos Correa if he signs with them?
Everything the Astros are considering/doing is foremost about winning World Series number three. Just for fun though, I close noting that the MLB record for most wins in a regular season is 116.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.