REALITY CHECK
Exploring 3 viable options for Houston Astros five-alarm fire at first
Apr 10, 2024, 4:25 pm
Jose Abreu looks lost at the plate. Composite Getty Image.
It’s a long baseball season, sure the Astros have started 4-8, and there are plenty of fingers to point around. But there’s no need to push the panic button.
Not yet.
Last year, the Astros didn’t start much better – they were 5-7 after a dozen games. It just seemed different, though. Nobody was wringing hands over the slow start. After all, the Astros were the defending World Series champions, coming off a 106-win season and figured to make mincemeat of the American League West again. Business as usual.
This year is different. The Astros are losing games in very un-Astros-like fashion. While the starting pitching has been surprisingly fine, at least the starters healthy enough to take the field, the bullpen has been a mess. The back end relievers, supposedly the strongest in all of baseball, have been disappointing. Bryan Abreu’s earned run average is 5.79. Ryan Pressly’s ERA is a sky-high 11.57 and closer Josh Hader, the best shutdown in the bigs, is at 6.00. The Astros are losing games late.
The Astros starting rotation is comprised mostly of seat-fillers. The Astros are sitting in the doctor’s waiting room for Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers to be declared fit for battle. McCullers’ contribution to the team in recent years has primarily been confined to H-E-B commercials.
Impatient fans and copy-hungry media need a target to blame for the Astros’ slow start and they’ve zero’d in on first baseman Jose Abreu.
For good reason. Abreu, 37, a former American League MVP, is being paid 19.5 million this year and next. He is having a miserable time at the plate. Originally slated for No. 5 in the batting order, now dropped to No. 7 and sinking in the west, Abreu is hitting a paltry .088. But that number actually is deceptively positive. He has three hits (all singles) in 34 at bats, with 12 strikeouts, no home runs and no RBI. Frankly one of Abreu's singles was a pity hit from a friendly scorekeeper who could have given Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. an error on Abreu’s weak grounder Tuesday night.
We can go all-analytics and brain-busting stats to explain Abreu’s troubles at the plate. But let’s use simple baseball language: Abreu is horrible. He’s done. Maybe it’s time for the Astros to cut bait. He is untradeable.
Abreu had a disastrous 2023 season, batting .237, the lowest average of his 11-year career. But after 12 games last year, he was hitting .271, not bad at all. Or as Larry David would say, pret-tay, pret-tay, pre-tay good.
This year he’s fallen off the end of the Earth. Fans groan as he swings meekly at breaking balls outside the zone. Or he fails to catch up to 95 mph-plus. Or he can’t connect on low inside pitches. Look, when you’re batting .088, it’s all bad.
Last year, the Astros actually had two, as Little Leaguers put it, automatic outs in the lineup. Abreu hit .237 and catcher Martin Maldonado blasted .191.
This year, it’s a tight battle between who’s the worst of the worst. Maldy is hitting .091 with two hits in 22 at bats and no RBI for Abreu’s old team, the Chicago White Sox. Abreu is hitting .088 for Maldonado’s old team, the Astros. This could go down to the last week of the season.
If Abreu is still with the Astros at season’s end. The Astros are no longer the high exalted dominant force in the American League West. They can’t afford an .088 hitter in the lineup. They can’t play eight against nine.
It didn’t help when manager Joe Espada recently said, “I got a ton of confidence in Abreu. I'm not going to talk about strategy. José Abreu has been a really good hitter for a very long time, and I have 100 percent confidence in José that, at some point, he's going to start hitting.”
How long is at some point? Didn’t Astros fans go through this last year with manager Dusty Baker refusing to sit Maldonado despite Maldy killing rallies in a tight pennant race?
The Astros don’t have a strong support system, especially backing Abreu at first base. But there are options. Mauricio Dubon is a jack of all trades. He could play first. Despite the funny line in Moneyball, first base statistically is the easiest position to play in baseball. Backup catcher Victor Caratini can fill the gap until the Astros sign a free agent first baseman.
Or the Astros could do something that would light a fire under fans: call up rookie Joey Loperfido, who’s belted five homers and driven in 13 RBI in 10 games for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys.
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What were the takeaways from the Texans-Panthers preseason game?
We’re getting close to cuts, so the stakes are high with one last chance to make a lasting impression in the final preseason game. In the Texans’ win over Carolina, the biggest takeaway was the offensive line and running game — they looked good. Pass protection held up, and C.J. Stroud put together a nice touchdown drive capped off with a fourth-down throw to Nico Collins. Both rookies Jayden Higgins and Jalen Noel caught passes, and Nick Chubb looked sharp running with the starters.
How did the O-line look?
The line already looks much improved from last season. Pass protection was solid, run blocking was effective, and they were able to grind out yards while giving Stroud a clean pocket. Rookie Aireontae Ersery continues to impress, and there’s a real chance he ends up as the starting left tackle over big ticket free agent Cam Robinson. Robinson is back at practice, but Ersery has looked good with the first unit — and he was drafted to take Laremy Tunsil’s spot anyway, so why not speed up the process?
In practice the starters have been LT Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews, RG Ed Ingram, and RT Tytus Howard. If Robinson slides back to left tackle, Ersery could move to right tackle with Howard shifting inside to guard. It’ll be interesting to see what combo the Texans roll out against the Rams in Week 1.
Did the running backs impress?
Chubb looked good behind the line, finishing with 5 carries for 25 yards and a reception. He seemed comfortable in the scheme and showed some burst — it’s obvious he knows what he’s doing. If Joe Mixon isn’t ready for the start of the season, Houston should be in good hands with Chubb.
Damien Pierce is still out, which has given rookie Woody Marks more opportunity. He made the most of it with 40 yards on 7 carries against Carolina. He’s also shown he can help on third down with his ability in the passing game, which could earn him a real role.
How did the receivers look?
Rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both caught passes. Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Justin Watson each added a couple of grabs too. Based on last year, Stroud tends to funnel targets to his top two options. A season ago it was Collins and Stefon Diggs before injuries hit. This year, Kirk looks capable of filling that Diggs role out of the slot. He just fits.
Reaction to the John Metchie–Harrison Bryant trade
The Texans needed more tight end depth with Brevin Jordan hurt, and Metchie wasn’t going to make the team. Bryant gives them another option, and it looks like tight ends may play a bigger role in the offense after Irv Smith Jr. led the team in catches and yards against Carolina.
Special teams also factored in. Metchie doesn’t play there, while Braxton Berrios and Justin Watson do, which gives the Texans more flexibility. Collins, Kirk, Higgins, Noel, and Hutchinson all look like locks at receiver, so moving Metchie made sense. It will be interesting to see who the final pieces will be in the Texans receiver room. Will they keep Watson and/or Berrios? We'll find out on Tuesday when the final cuts are made. Stay tuned!
What to watch for against the Lions
It’s all about the offense at this point. The defense is expected to be elite, so the spotlight shifts to Stroud and the rest of the unit. If the offensive line holds up against Detroit and the operation looks sharp, the Texans should be well-positioned to open the regular season on the right foot.
There's so much more to break down! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The NFL season is almost upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Texans on Tap podcast, which drops each Thursday during the preseason! More episodes will ramp up when the regular season begins! We'll go live on YouTube after every regular-season game.
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