Cause & intent: How Hader addition raises intriguing implications about Astros big picture
STONE COLD 'STROS
26 January 2024
When the Houston Astros announced the signing of Josh Hader, several questions came to mind from fans and media. Does this signing have any impact on contract extensions for Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker?
Will Hader or Ryan Pressly pitch the ninth inning? And was this contract in direct response to Kendall Graveman having shoulder surgery and being ruled out for the remainder of the season?
Only time will tell with the first question. Those deals will likely be handled on a case by case basis. Hader answered the second question (kind of) at his introductory press conference. He basically said it's all about winning, and he and Pressly are focused on that, not which role they will play in the eight and ninth innings.
As for the third question, only the Astros know for sure, but we feel pretty confident about the answer based on the timeline. The Astros announced the Graveman news on Tuesday, January 16th.
At Hader's presser, it was revealed that the Astros contacted Hader's agent on Tuesday, January 16th, and the deal was agreed upon within 72 hours.
It seems pretty obvious to us that the Astros would have been happy to stay under the luxury tax with Graveman, Abreu, and Pressly handling the leverage innings out of the bullpen.
We believe Rafael Montero's struggles are the reason Graveman was traded for in the first place. You could actually make the argument that the Astros have paid for the Montero deal four times. First, Montero's $34.5 million contract he signed last offseason while the team had no general manager. Second, by trading away a top prospect in Korey Lee to get Graveman. Third, paying Graveman's salary, which includes $8 million for this season in which he won't pitch. And finally fourth, the $95 million deal they had to give Hader to shore up the 'pen.
To be fair, a few days before the Graveman announcement, we did see reports about the Astros having interest in bringing back Hector Neris. But then again, the Astros probably knew Graveman's fate a few days before announcing it publicly.
It seems reasonable to think they kicked the tires on Neris after knowing Graveman was likely done for the year. Then realized if they were going to have to pay $50 million for the 35-year-old Neris, why not go all in and pursue the 29-year-old Hader?
If you're going to have to go over the tax threshold anyway, might as well grab arguably the best closer in baseball.
Plus, we've seen the backend of the bullpen stacked like this once before. It was 2003 with Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, and Brad Lidge. Which begs the question, which backend of the bullpen is better? The current iteration or the one from 2003?
Be sure to watch the video above as we take a deep dive into the stats and reveal which 7,8,9 combination is the best in Astros history.
Below are some career stats we considered when making our arguments. Courtesy of BaseballReference.com.
Wagner 2.31 ERA, 27.7 WAR, 7 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.998 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 422 saves, 16 year career.
Postseason 11.2 innings, 10.03 ERA. Zero championships.
Hader 2.50 ERA, 11.7 WAR, 5 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.944 WHIP, 15 SO9, 165 saves, 7 year career.
Postseason 19.2 innings, 1.37 ERA. Zero championships.
Lidge 3.54 ERA, 7.9 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.27 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 225 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 45.1 innings, 2.18 ERA. 1 championship.
Pressly 3.25 ERA, 9.7 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.17 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.6 SO9, 108 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 44.2 innings, 2.22 ERA. 1 championship.
Digging deeper: Since becoming the Astros closer in 2020, he has allowed 3 ER in 31 postseason appearances (34 innings). 0 earned runs in 2022 and 2023 combined. He has a shockingly low 0.79 ERA in the postseason since taking over the closer role in 2020.
Dotel 3.78 ERA, 15.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.70 FIP, 1.238 WHIP, 10.8 SO9, 109 saves, 15 year career.
Postseason 23.1 innings, 3.86 ERA. 1 championship.
Abreu 2.60 ERA, 3.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.00 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, 12 SO9, 8 saves, 5 year career.
Postseason 20.1 innings, 2.66 ERA. 1 championship.
If you enjoy the videos, subscribe to SportsMapHouston on YouTube for Houston's best Astros coverage.
When you hit rock bottom the only direction to go is up. Actually that's not true, you can continue to be a bottom feeder. Things are not nearly so dire for the Astros, despite them enduring one of the more pathetic weeks in franchise history. The Astros nearly had a perfect game pitched against them by a guy who had zero big league wins and a 6.70 earned run average. After managing to eke out a win the following game, they were shutout three games in a row. In the game after that Framber Valdez gave up six runs in the first inning, essentially ending the game right then and there. But hey, the Astros scored two runs in Wednesday's 7-2 loss, snapping an embarrassing run of 31 consecutive scoreless times at bat. Yet somehow over that stretch of gross, the Astros increased their American League West lead! The somehow being the Seattle Mariners saying "hold my beer" and losing five days in a row.
Reminder to those wanting to have the fat lady start warming in the bullpen thinking the Astros are done: the 162-game regular season lends itself to sometimes extreme peaks and valleys. The Astros limped out of Detroit with a record of 14-23 in their last 37 games. Over that time span only the Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants have worse records. Immediately before this lengthy garbage stretch of performance, the Astros went a blistering 29-10. Bi-polarity is part of the baseball season. The Tigers flat destroyed the Astros three days in a row to run the Motowners' recent spurt to 16 wins in 23 games. Immediately before going 16-7, the Tigers lost 12 out of 13! The longest winning streak in the American League this season is the 13-gamer put up by the Minnesota Twins. The rest of their season was so bad the Twins dealt away nearly half their roster before the trade deadline. The Red Sox had a 10-game losing streak earlier this season. The Yankees endured a miserable stretch of 6-16. Of most direct import to the Astros, the Mariners big dumped seven out of eight games directly after their eight-game winning streak had wiped out what remained of the Astros' one-time seven game American League West division lead. It's the full 162 games that tell the tale. The Astros absolutely could collapse out of the playoffs entirely. But that such is inevitable is ridiculous. In part because….
Yordan Alvarez should actually play in a game that counts this coming Tuesday. Why wait that long? He had two hits and a walk (and a stolen base...why Yordan, why!) in his first game in the minors Tuesday. If the long-injured and recovering hand is okay, having him play in the minors through the weekend is a waste of time. If Alvarez's timing isn't up to speed, so what? The mere threat Yordan represents is better than the dreck populating much of Joe Espada's batting order these days. The back-to-back games he's playing in the minors Thursday and Friday should have been in Baltimore in an Astros' uniform.
Any game Alvarez is the designated hitter removes deployment in the DH role of José Altuve. That's okay, Altuve is needed in left field because the ludicrously lousy offense from the other Astros' outfielders might not be good enough to win this week's Little League World Series. Hyperbole, but you get the point. Cam Smith has been brutally inept at the plate for almost a month and a half, arriving in Baltimore with a .137 batting average over his last 102 at bats and not a single homer in his last 149 ABs. While Smith's future can still be very bright, his present is pitch dark. Jacob Melton has been almost completely overmatched at the plate, batting .170 with an absurd 23 strikeouts in his first 54 at bats. Jesus Sanchez has stunk since coming in trade from the Marlins. Chas McCormick is a better comic reliever than he has been a hitter for more than a year and a half. Taylor Trammell's career big league batting average is .177. No one confuses Mauricio Dubon or Ramon Urias with Craig Biggio, but either guy in the lineup at second base with Altuve in left is better than Altuve at second and any of those outfielders playing.
While the Astros strive to garner at least a split of their four-game set with the Orioles this weekend, the Mariners are home for three vs. the Athletics. Since the All-Star break, the A's have the best record among the five AL West clubs. The Astros have the worst. As this column has covered, wild swings of results can happen at any time, but the Tigers crushing the Astros basically ends plausible Astros' hopes of winding up with the best record in the AL. The Tigers shoved the Astros six games behind them, and clinched the season series tiebreaker. The Astros still could run down Toronto for the second-best AL mark and bye past the best-of-three Wild Card round that comes with it. Along with playing vastly better ball period, the Astros quite likely would have to win their series over the Blue Jays in Canada next month.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
