STONE COLD 'STROS
Cause & intent: How Hader addition raises intriguing implications about Astros big picture
Jan 25, 2024, 7:21 pm
Cause & intent: How Hader addition raises intriguing implications about Astros big picture
When the Houston Astros announced the signing of Josh Hader, several questions came to mind from fans and media. Does this signing have any impact on contract extensions for Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker?
Will Hader or Ryan Pressly pitch the ninth inning? And was this contract in direct response to Kendall Graveman having shoulder surgery and being ruled out for the remainder of the season?
Only time will tell with the first question. Those deals will likely be handled on a case by case basis. Hader answered the second question (kind of) at his introductory press conference. He basically said it's all about winning, and he and Pressly are focused on that, not which role they will play in the eight and ninth innings.
As for the third question, only the Astros know for sure, but we feel pretty confident about the answer based on the timeline. The Astros announced the Graveman news on Tuesday, January 16th.
At Hader's presser, it was revealed that the Astros contacted Hader's agent on Tuesday, January 16th, and the deal was agreed upon within 72 hours.
It seems pretty obvious to us that the Astros would have been happy to stay under the luxury tax with Graveman, Abreu, and Pressly handling the leverage innings out of the bullpen.
We believe Rafael Montero's struggles are the reason Graveman was traded for in the first place. You could actually make the argument that the Astros have paid for the Montero deal four times. First, Montero's $34.5 million contract he signed last offseason while the team had no general manager. Second, by trading away a top prospect in Korey Lee to get Graveman. Third, paying Graveman's salary, which includes $8 million for this season in which he won't pitch. And finally fourth, the $95 million deal they had to give Hader to shore up the 'pen.
To be fair, a few days before the Graveman announcement, we did see reports about the Astros having interest in bringing back Hector Neris. But then again, the Astros probably knew Graveman's fate a few days before announcing it publicly.
It seems reasonable to think they kicked the tires on Neris after knowing Graveman was likely done for the year. Then realized if they were going to have to pay $50 million for the 35-year-old Neris, why not go all in and pursue the 29-year-old Hader?
If you're going to have to go over the tax threshold anyway, might as well grab arguably the best closer in baseball.
Plus, we've seen the backend of the bullpen stacked like this once before. It was 2003 with Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, and Brad Lidge. Which begs the question, which backend of the bullpen is better? The current iteration or the one from 2003?
Be sure to watch the video above as we take a deep dive into the stats and reveal which 7,8,9 combination is the best in Astros history.
Below are some career stats we considered when making our arguments. Courtesy of BaseballReference.com.
Wagner 2.31 ERA, 27.7 WAR, 7 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.998 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 422 saves, 16 year career.
Postseason 11.2 innings, 10.03 ERA. Zero championships.
Hader 2.50 ERA, 11.7 WAR, 5 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.944 WHIP, 15 SO9, 165 saves, 7 year career.
Postseason 19.2 innings, 1.37 ERA. Zero championships.
Lidge 3.54 ERA, 7.9 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.27 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 225 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 45.1 innings, 2.18 ERA. 1 championship.
Pressly 3.25 ERA, 9.7 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.17 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.6 SO9, 108 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 44.2 innings, 2.22 ERA. 1 championship.
Digging deeper: Since becoming the Astros closer in 2020, he has allowed 3 ER in 31 postseason appearances (34 innings). 0 earned runs in 2022 and 2023 combined. He has a shockingly low 0.79 ERA in the postseason since taking over the closer role in 2020.
Dotel 3.78 ERA, 15.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.70 FIP, 1.238 WHIP, 10.8 SO9, 109 saves, 15 year career.
Postseason 23.1 innings, 3.86 ERA. 1 championship.
Abreu 2.60 ERA, 3.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.00 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, 12 SO9, 8 saves, 5 year career.
Postseason 20.1 innings, 2.66 ERA. 1 championship.
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Oswald Peraza hit a two-run single in the ninth inning to help the Los Angeles Angels snap a three-game losing skid by beating the Houston Astros 4-1 on Saturday night.
Peraza entered the game as a defensive replacement in the seventh inning and hit a bases-loaded fly ball to deep right field that eluded the outstretched glove of Cam Smith. It was the fourth straight hit off Astros closer Bryan Abreu (3-4), who had not allowed a run in his previous 12 appearances.
The Angels third run of the ninth inning scored when Mike Trout walked with the bases loaded.
Kyle Hendricks allowed one run while scattering seven hits over six innings. He held the Astros to 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, the one hit coming on Jesús Sánchez’s third-inning infield single that scored Jeremy Peña.
Reid Detmers worked around a leadoff walk to keep the Astros scoreless in the seventh, and José Fermin (3-2) retired the side in order in the eighth before Kenley Jansen worked a scoreless ninth to earn his 24th save.
Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high eight batters over 6 1/3 innings. The only hit he allowed was Zach Neto’s third-inning solo home run.
Yordan Alvarez had two hits for the Astros, who remained three games ahead of Seattle for first place in the AL West.
Key moment
Peraza’s two-run single to deep right field that broke a 1-1 tie in the ninth.
Key Stat
Opponents were 5 for 44 against Abreu in August before he allowed four straight hits in the ninth.
Up next
Astros RHP Hunter Brown (10-6, 2.37 ERA) faces RHP José Soriano (9-9, 3.85) when the series continues Sunday.