Cause & intent: How Hader addition raises intriguing implications about Astros big picture
STONE COLD 'STROS
26 January 2024
STONE COLD 'STROS
When the Houston Astros announced the signing of Josh Hader, several questions came to mind from fans and media. Does this signing have any impact on contract extensions for Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker?
Will Hader or Ryan Pressly pitch the ninth inning? And was this contract in direct response to Kendall Graveman having shoulder surgery and being ruled out for the remainder of the season?
Only time will tell with the first question. Those deals will likely be handled on a case by case basis. Hader answered the second question (kind of) at his introductory press conference. He basically said it's all about winning, and he and Pressly are focused on that, not which role they will play in the eight and ninth innings.
As for the third question, only the Astros know for sure, but we feel pretty confident about the answer based on the timeline. The Astros announced the Graveman news on Tuesday, January 16th.
At Hader's presser, it was revealed that the Astros contacted Hader's agent on Tuesday, January 16th, and the deal was agreed upon within 72 hours.
It seems pretty obvious to us that the Astros would have been happy to stay under the luxury tax with Graveman, Abreu, and Pressly handling the leverage innings out of the bullpen.
We believe Rafael Montero's struggles are the reason Graveman was traded for in the first place. You could actually make the argument that the Astros have paid for the Montero deal four times. First, Montero's $34.5 million contract he signed last offseason while the team had no general manager. Second, by trading away a top prospect in Korey Lee to get Graveman. Third, paying Graveman's salary, which includes $8 million for this season in which he won't pitch. And finally fourth, the $95 million deal they had to give Hader to shore up the 'pen.
To be fair, a few days before the Graveman announcement, we did see reports about the Astros having interest in bringing back Hector Neris. But then again, the Astros probably knew Graveman's fate a few days before announcing it publicly.
It seems reasonable to think they kicked the tires on Neris after knowing Graveman was likely done for the year. Then realized if they were going to have to pay $50 million for the 35-year-old Neris, why not go all in and pursue the 29-year-old Hader?
If you're going to have to go over the tax threshold anyway, might as well grab arguably the best closer in baseball.
Plus, we've seen the backend of the bullpen stacked like this once before. It was 2003 with Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, and Brad Lidge. Which begs the question, which backend of the bullpen is better? The current iteration or the one from 2003?
Be sure to watch the video above as we take a deep dive into the stats and reveal which 7,8,9 combination is the best in Astros history.
Below are some career stats we considered when making our arguments. Courtesy of BaseballReference.com.
Wagner 2.31 ERA, 27.7 WAR, 7 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.998 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 422 saves, 16 year career.
Postseason 11.2 innings, 10.03 ERA. Zero championships.
Hader 2.50 ERA, 11.7 WAR, 5 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.944 WHIP, 15 SO9, 165 saves, 7 year career.
Postseason 19.2 innings, 1.37 ERA. Zero championships.
Lidge 3.54 ERA, 7.9 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.27 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 225 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 45.1 innings, 2.18 ERA. 1 championship.
Pressly 3.25 ERA, 9.7 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.17 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.6 SO9, 108 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 44.2 innings, 2.22 ERA. 1 championship.
Digging deeper: Since becoming the Astros closer in 2020, he has allowed 3 ER in 31 postseason appearances (34 innings). 0 earned runs in 2022 and 2023 combined. He has a shockingly low 0.79 ERA in the postseason since taking over the closer role in 2020.
Dotel 3.78 ERA, 15.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.70 FIP, 1.238 WHIP, 10.8 SO9, 109 saves, 15 year career.
Postseason 23.1 innings, 3.86 ERA. 1 championship.
Abreu 2.60 ERA, 3.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.00 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, 12 SO9, 8 saves, 5 year career.
Postseason 20.1 innings, 2.66 ERA. 1 championship.
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José Ramírez and David Fry homered and Brayan Rocchio added a two-run double as the Cleveland Guardians beat the Houston Astros 7-5 on Monday night to snap a 10-game skid.
The victory is Cleveland’s first since June 25th and comes a day after losing to Detroit in 10 innings Sunday.
The score was tied with two outs in the sixth and the Guardians had two on when Rocchio doubled to left field off Steven Okert to put them on top 6-4.
With two outs in the bottom of the inning, Victor Caratini connected off Matt Festa (2-2) on a shot to right field to get Houston within 1.
However, Fry connected with two outs in the ninth to give Cleveland an insurance run.
Emmanuel Clase pitched a perfect ninth for his 19th save.
Taylor Trammell added a three-run home run for his first hit this season and Isaac Paredes had a solo shot for the AL West-leading Astros, who lost for just the second time in eight games.
Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee allowed four hits and four runs in 4 2/3 innings.
Colton Gordon (3-2) yielded seven hits and five runs in 5 2/3 innings for the Astros.
There were runners on second and third with no outs in the fifth when Steven Kwan lined an RBI single that hit Gordon in the head. The pitcher fell to the ground as his cap flew off but quickly got to his feet. He was checked on by a trainer and threw some warmup pitches before remaining in the game.
Ramírez homered to left field with two outs in the inning to make it 4-0.
Trammell’s shot to the seats in left field cut the lead to 4-3 in the bottom of the inning.
There were two outs in the inning when Paredes smacked his home run off the foul pole in left field to tie it and chase Bibee.
Rocchio’s double that gave Cleveland the lead for good.
The Guardians won despite going 3 for 11 with runners in scoring position.
Astros RHP Hunter Brown (9-3, 1.82 ERA) opposes Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo (1-0, 3.41) when the series continues Tuesday night.