Cause & intent: How Hader addition raises intriguing implications about Astros big picture
STONE COLD 'STROS
26 January
When the Houston Astros announced the signing of Josh Hader, several questions came to mind from fans and media. Does this signing have any impact on contract extensions for Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker?
Will Hader or Ryan Pressly pitch the ninth inning? And was this contract in direct response to Kendall Graveman having shoulder surgery and being ruled out for the remainder of the season?
Only time will tell with the first question. Those deals will likely be handled on a case by case basis. Hader answered the second question (kind of) at his introductory press conference. He basically said it's all about winning, and he and Pressly are focused on that, not which role they will play in the eight and ninth innings.
As for the third question, only the Astros know for sure, but we feel pretty confident about the answer based on the timeline. The Astros announced the Graveman news on Tuesday, January 16th.
At Hader's presser, it was revealed that the Astros contacted Hader's agent on Tuesday, January 16th, and the deal was agreed upon within 72 hours.
It seems pretty obvious to us that the Astros would have been happy to stay under the luxury tax with Graveman, Abreu, and Pressly handling the leverage innings out of the bullpen.
We believe Rafael Montero's struggles are the reason Graveman was traded for in the first place. You could actually make the argument that the Astros have paid for the Montero deal four times. First, Montero's $34.5 million contract he signed last offseason while the team had no general manager. Second, by trading away a top prospect in Korey Lee to get Graveman. Third, paying Graveman's salary, which includes $8 million for this season in which he won't pitch. And finally fourth, the $95 million deal they had to give Hader to shore up the 'pen.
To be fair, a few days before the Graveman announcement, we did see reports about the Astros having interest in bringing back Hector Neris. But then again, the Astros probably knew Graveman's fate a few days before announcing it publicly.
It seems reasonable to think they kicked the tires on Neris after knowing Graveman was likely done for the year. Then realized if they were going to have to pay $50 million for the 35-year-old Neris, why not go all in and pursue the 29-year-old Hader?
If you're going to have to go over the tax threshold anyway, might as well grab arguably the best closer in baseball.
Plus, we've seen the backend of the bullpen stacked like this once before. It was 2003 with Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, and Brad Lidge. Which begs the question, which backend of the bullpen is better? The current iteration or the one from 2003?
Be sure to watch the video above as we take a deep dive into the stats and reveal which 7,8,9 combination is the best in Astros history.
Below are some career stats we considered when making our arguments. Courtesy of BaseballReference.com.
Wagner 2.31 ERA, 27.7 WAR, 7 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.998 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 422 saves, 16 year career.
Postseason 11.2 innings, 10.03 ERA. Zero championships.
Hader 2.50 ERA, 11.7 WAR, 5 All-Star appearances, 2.73 FIP, 0.944 WHIP, 15 SO9, 165 saves, 7 year career.
Postseason 19.2 innings, 1.37 ERA. Zero championships.
Lidge 3.54 ERA, 7.9 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.27 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.9 SO9, 225 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 45.1 innings, 2.18 ERA. 1 championship.
Pressly 3.25 ERA, 9.7 WAR, 2 All-Star appearances, 3.17 FIP, 1.144 WHIP, 9.6 SO9, 108 saves, 11 year career.
Postseason 44.2 innings, 2.22 ERA. 1 championship.
Digging deeper: Since becoming the Astros closer in 2020, he has allowed 3 ER in 31 postseason appearances (34 innings). 0 earned runs in 2022 and 2023 combined. He has a shockingly low 0.79 ERA in the postseason since taking over the closer role in 2020.
Dotel 3.78 ERA, 15.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.70 FIP, 1.238 WHIP, 10.8 SO9, 109 saves, 15 year career.
Postseason 23.1 innings, 3.86 ERA. 1 championship.
Abreu 2.60 ERA, 3.2 WAR, 0 All-Star appearances, 3.00 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, 12 SO9, 8 saves, 5 year career.
Postseason 20.1 innings, 2.66 ERA. 1 championship.
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How Astros surging ace raises key questions about Houston's short, long-term rotation moves
Jul 25, 2024, 5:39 pm
It's no secret to Astros fans that the ascension of Hunter Brown is one of the primary reasons the team was able to rebound from a disastrous start to the season.
Astros manager Joe Espada has seen enough from Brown to start throwing around the word “ace” when talking about him.
Joe Espada on Hunter Brown: "He's having that ace feeling to him. We are expecting him to go out there and deliver what he just did. We knew all along that is in him and now he's starting to turn the corner. He's starting to have that swag where he knows 'my team needs a win.'"
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) July 24, 2024
And it appears the biggest key to Brown's turnaround was mixing in a two-seam fastball to keep right-handed hitters honest. Brown needed a pitch that could command the inside of the plate, which allows his other pitches to be more effective.
We learned just recently, from Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Alex Bregman was the one that suggested the addition of the two-seam fastball to Brown's arsenal.
Come to find out, Bregman often shares advice on how to attack hitters. Or he'll ask pitchers why they chose a certain pitch in a specific situation.
This just goes to show that veteran leadership can make a big difference. Especially on a team with so many young pitchers and catchers. Bregman was able to help Brown when no pitching coach could.
For Brown, this small tweak could be the catalyst that changes the course of his career. And the Astros season for that matter.
However, some will say the difference in Brown is more about confidence than anything else. But confidence only builds after repeated success. Nobody knows where Brown would be without the two-seam fastball.
Looking ahead
If the Astros do make the playoffs, where will Espada slot Brown in the playoff rotation? Framber Valdez has the playoff experience, so he'll probably be penciled in as the number one starter.
Justin Verlander (neck) still isn't facing live batters, so it's hard to count on him. Ronel Blanco has been an All-Star level pitcher this season, but he doesn't have any experience pitching playoff games for the Astros.
So it wouldn't be surprising at all if Brown is the team's number two starter. In all likelihood, whoever is pitching the best at the end of the season may get the nod. But it's fun to discuss in the meantime.
Finally, how does Hunter Brown's arrival impact the Astros' plans at the trade deadline? And how could that affect Justin Verlander's future with the club?
Be sure to check out the video above for the full conversation!
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
