LET'S GO TO THE TAPE

Here's why Astros stance on Kyle Tucker's future could be misleading

Houston Astros Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
Will Kyle Tucker really be an Astro for life?Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images.
Tucker's late go-ahead homer helps lift Astros over Padres in opener

Last week, Astros general manager Dana Brown went on a Houston radio station and dropped a straightforward, simple declarative statement with no wiggle room:

“Let’s say this, Kyle Tucker will be a Houston Astro for his career.”

Astros World reacted with glee and media quickly flashed stories with headlines blaring:

“Houston GM: Kyle Tucker an Astro for life.”

“Astros GM Dana Brown: Tucker will be a Houston Astro for career.”

“Dana Brown says the Astros will extend Kyle Tucker.”

The buzz was understandable. Tucker is an amazing player, a true 5-tool guy, and he’s only 26 years old. The Astros would be crazy not to lock down this superstar for however long and however much it takes. It was fantastic news that Tucker would be an Astro for life. Way to go, general manager Brown and owner Jim Crane!

But hold on, were Astros fans and the media listening with their hearts instead of their ears? Let’s go to the tape and allow Brown to finish his radio interview.

“I think he really wants to stay here.”

“We feel strongly about getting something done.”

“We have Tucker for a couple more years (before he becomes a free agent).”

“We will deal with the agent when we get the time in the off-season.”

“I think” and “we will deal in the off-season” and “we have Tucker for a couple more years” sure doesn’t sound like anything is a done deal. In fact, it sounds more like wishful thinking than ink on paper. He probably got excited and said what he thought the audience wanted to hear.

Here’s what Brown meant to say or at least should have said:

“We would love to have Tucker finish his career in Houston, but we’re more focused on winning the American League West right now. We haven’t spoken with Tucker’s agent and won’t do so until the off-season. But there’s no need to hurry because Tucker isn’t eligible for free agency for two more seasons. Giving Tucker an extension is not at the top of our to-do list. But our fingers are crossed that eventually we’ll get a deal done.”

It takes two to tango, and so far we’re only hearing one set of footsteps. Tucker has not said a word about contract negotiations. One thing for sure, Brown certainly gave Tucker more leverage when negotiations ultimately happen.

It appears that the team hasn't even contacted Tucker's agent to start talking, let alone offering an unprecedented, long-term deal that would keep Tucker here for possibly 12 more years or even longer. He’s 14 years from 40.

Brown assuring fans that Tucker is here to say is like making an offer on a house and calling a moving company before the seller accepts your offer.

If Howie Mandel were to ask “deal or no deal?,” right now the answer is “no deal.”

It's well known that the Astros are loathe to offer long-term contracts for giant money. You know the names: Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, George Springer. Each one kissed the Astros goodbye for another team offering more money or more years, or both.

Of course Tucker is a different story. He is a better long-term risk than any of those others. Tucker is a fan favorite, young, fast, strong and durable. He's the whole package and a Gold Glove. He’s got “it.”

It's conceivable that the Astros could bite the bullet, swallow their disdain for big money and long-term deals and offer Tucker, let's say, eight years for $35 million per. But what if the Dodgers or Padres or Giants or Red Sox or Yankees offer 10 years at $40 million per?

Then “he really wants to stay here” takes the next flight to the coast.

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Can Stroud learn from the 49ers' mistakes? Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Texans travel to Minneapolis this Sunday to take on the Vikings, with both teams entering the matchup undefeated at 2-0.

CJ Stroud will be tested against a Vikings defense that specializes in disguising coverages pre-snap, and likes to blitz at a high rate.

Stroud tends to target Nico Collins when being blitzed (62% of Stroud's passing yardage), so don't be surprised if Vikings DC Brian Flores shows Collins some extra attention when bringing the pressure.

Which means this could be the week Tank Dell finally breaks out. Another thing working in Dell's favor is the amount of Cover 4 the Vikings are playing this season. Flores has used Cover 4 over 30% of the time this season, up about 10% compared to last year.

Dell has been Stroud's top target versus Cover 4 since the start of the 2023 season. Of course, the addition of Stefon Diggs could impact Dell's usage against that coverage moving forward.

One thing working for the Texans in this matchup is timing. The Vikings dominated the 49ers last Sunday, giving QB Brock Purdy fits. Per PFF, Purdy had three interception-worthy plays in the game, and none of them came when he was pressured.

It stands to reason that Stroud and OC Bobby Slowik will benefit from watching last week's tape to get some insight into how Flores will attack a Shanahan-style offense like the Texans run.

Texans on defense

QB Sam Darnold has played well in these first two games. And like the Texans offense, Houston's defense also has a lot in common with the 49ers'. Remember, Darnold played for the 49ers last season. He and Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell (Shanahan coaching tree) are very familiar with the 49ers' schemes on both offense and defense.

Superstar receiver Justin Jefferson will keep the Texans secondary busy, and don't be surprised if the Vikings are able to rack up yardage using screen passes to running back Aaron Jones. Jones had 5 catches last week against the Niners.

There were two big takeaways from the Vikings upset of the 49ers last week. First, the San Francisco staff was out-coached on both sides of the ball. Vikings receivers were open all afternoon, and even when the 49ers made plays on offense, they had to do it seemingly with defenders draped on them at all times.

Second, Darnold was able to escape pressure several times and pick up first downs with his legs. Something the Texans struggled with against Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 2.

The other issue the Texnas defense will encounter is the surprisingly good play from the Vikings o-line. Through the first two games, the Vikings have the fourth-best graded o-line, according to PFF. Sacks could be hard to come by.

X-factors

Revenge could play a role in this game. Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman will both want to prove the Texans wrong for replacing them with Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair, at least on some level. Hunter may want to prove a point against his former team as well.

And let's not forget Brian Flores sued the NFL (and added a claim against the Texans), claiming he didn't get the Texans job a couple of years ago because of his lawsuit.

What does Vegas think?

The Texans are favored by 2 points on the road, and the total for the game is 46.

Be sure to watch the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap gets you ready for Texans-Vikings!

And don't miss our postgame show live on the SportsMapTexans YouTube channel immediately following the game.

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