LET'S GO TO THE TAPE
Here's why Astros stance on Kyle Tucker's future could be misleading
Aug 16, 2023, 10:09 am
Will Kyle Tucker really be an Astro for life?Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images.
Tucker's late go-ahead homer helps lift Astros over Padres in opener
Last week, Astros general manager Dana Brown went on a Houston radio station and dropped a straightforward, simple declarative statement with no wiggle room:
“Let’s say this, Kyle Tucker will be a Houston Astro for his career.”
Astros World reacted with glee and media quickly flashed stories with headlines blaring:
“Houston GM: Kyle Tucker an Astro for life.”
“Astros GM Dana Brown: Tucker will be a Houston Astro for career.”
“Dana Brown says the Astros will extend Kyle Tucker.”
The buzz was understandable. Tucker is an amazing player, a true 5-tool guy, and he’s only 26 years old. The Astros would be crazy not to lock down this superstar for however long and however much it takes. It was fantastic news that Tucker would be an Astro for life. Way to go, general manager Brown and owner Jim Crane!
But hold on, were Astros fans and the media listening with their hearts instead of their ears? Let’s go to the tape and allow Brown to finish his radio interview.
“I think he really wants to stay here.”
“We feel strongly about getting something done.”
“We have Tucker for a couple more years (before he becomes a free agent).”
“We will deal with the agent when we get the time in the off-season.”
“I think” and “we will deal in the off-season” and “we have Tucker for a couple more years” sure doesn’t sound like anything is a done deal. In fact, it sounds more like wishful thinking than ink on paper. He probably got excited and said what he thought the audience wanted to hear.
Here’s what Brown meant to say or at least should have said:
“We would love to have Tucker finish his career in Houston, but we’re more focused on winning the American League West right now. We haven’t spoken with Tucker’s agent and won’t do so until the off-season. But there’s no need to hurry because Tucker isn’t eligible for free agency for two more seasons. Giving Tucker an extension is not at the top of our to-do list. But our fingers are crossed that eventually we’ll get a deal done.”
It takes two to tango, and so far we’re only hearing one set of footsteps. Tucker has not said a word about contract negotiations. One thing for sure, Brown certainly gave Tucker more leverage when negotiations ultimately happen.
It appears that the team hasn't even contacted Tucker's agent to start talking, let alone offering an unprecedented, long-term deal that would keep Tucker here for possibly 12 more years or even longer. He’s 14 years from 40.
Brown assuring fans that Tucker is here to say is like making an offer on a house and calling a moving company before the seller accepts your offer.
If Howie Mandel were to ask “deal or no deal?,” right now the answer is “no deal.”
It's well known that the Astros are loathe to offer long-term contracts for giant money. You know the names: Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, George Springer. Each one kissed the Astros goodbye for another team offering more money or more years, or both.
Of course Tucker is a different story. He is a better long-term risk than any of those others. Tucker is a fan favorite, young, fast, strong and durable. He's the whole package and a Gold Glove. He’s got “it.”
It's conceivable that the Astros could bite the bullet, swallow their disdain for big money and long-term deals and offer Tucker, let's say, eight years for $35 million per. But what if the Dodgers or Padres or Giants or Red Sox or Yankees offer 10 years at $40 million per?
Then “he really wants to stay here” takes the next flight to the coast.
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There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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