METS EVEN THE SERIES

Houston falls short as Soto’s homer, missed opportunities doom Astros

Astros Hunter Brown
The Mets beat the Astros, 3-1. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

Juan Soto hit his first homer with the New York Mets, helping his new team beat the Houston Astros 3-1 on Friday night.

With two out in the third inning, Soto drove a 1-2 pitch from Hunter Brown deep to right for a solo shot that lifted New York to a 3-0 lead.

Soto's 390-foot shot came a day after he struck out on a full-count slider from closer Josh Hader with two on and two out in a 3-1 opening-day loss.

Before that, Soto singled and walked twice Thursday in his Mets debut. The slugger signed a record $765 million, 15-year contract as a free agent in December.

New York starter Tylor Megill (1-0) pitched five-plus innings of one-run ball. He allowed three hits, struck out six and walked one.

Edwin Díaz struck out one in a perfect ninth for his first save, finishing a three-hitter.

Brown (0-1) struck out seven in six innings. He allowed four hits and walked three.

Mark Vientos hit an RBI double for New York in the second and scored on a single by Jesse Winker.

Houston scored its only run in the fourth on Yordan Alvarez's sacrifice fly.

The Astros had a runner on first with one out in the eighth when Luisangel Acuña made a diving stop on Alvarez's grounder to second, popped up and threw to first for the out.

Houston was 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position.

Key moment

The Astros loaded the bases with one out in the sixth, but Reed Garrett struck out Alvarez before retiring Yainer Diaz on a fly ball to right-center.

Key stat

The Mets have won the last seven games started by Megill dating to Aug. 30.

Up next

Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti opposes Griffin Canning when the series wraps up Saturday night. Arrighetti looks to build on a strong rookie season when his 171 strikeouts were the third-most by a rookie in franchise history.

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The Coogs square off with Duke on Saturday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.

The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.

There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.

College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.

“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”

And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.

KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.

In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.

Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.

That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.

“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”

Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.

Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).

Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.

Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.

“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”

Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.

Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.

The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.

This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.

“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”

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