HADER STRUGGLES AGAIN
Houston's bullpen falters, Astros lose to Pirates 6-3
Jul 30, 2024, 10:12 am
HADER STRUGGLES AGAIN
Paul Skenes allowed one earned run over six innings in a no-decision and Michael A. Taylor hit a tiebreaking three-run homer in the ninth off Josh Hader that led the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Houston Astros 6-3 on Monday night.
Skenes lowered his ERA from 1.93 to 1.90, giving up two runs, five hits and three walks with six strikeouts. His 103 strikeouts in his first 13 starts trail only Hideo Nomo (119), Kerry Wood (118), Herb Score (107), Jose DeLeon (106), while matching Masahiro Tanaka.
Skenes’ streak of starts with seven or more strikeouts ended at nine, tied with Dwight Gooden (1984) and Brandon Beachy (2011) for the most among rookies, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Skenes averaged 98.5 mph with his fastball, down 0.6 mph from his season average, and he didn’t touch 100 mph. He threw 34 splinkers, 28 fastballs, 28 sliders, eight curveballs and three changeups, getting 16 swings and misses, up from 11 in his first start after the All-Star break.
“I thought it was terrible,” Skenes said of his slider. “I wasn’t executing, and frankly, got lucky. I was trying to find it.”
Houston took a 2-0 lead in the fifth after loading the bases when Jon Singleton singled, Jake Meyers walked and Victor Caratini was hit by a pitch. Jose Altuve hit what appeared to be a potential inning-ending, double-play grounder, but the ball glanced off the glove of Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes for an error as two runs scored.
Yasmani Grandal homered in the sixth off Kaleb Ort and Oneil Cruz hit a tying double in the eighth off Ryan Pressly, a 119.3 mph drive that bounced to the right-field wall. Pressly had entered with 15 consecutive scoreless innings.
Taylor homered in the ninth off Hader (4-6) for a 5-2 lead on a night fans received replica Hader jerseys as a promotional giveaway. Taylor drove a 96.6 mph sinker 421 feet to left-center for his third homer this season.
“I was looking for a fastball, and he’s got a really good one,” Taylor said. “I was looking for one I could hit. It felt great.”
Aroldis Chapman (4-4) struck out two in a one-hit eighth and David Bednar earned his 19th save in 22 chances. He forced in a run with a bases-loaded walk to Yordan Alvarez, then retired Yainer Diaz on a game-ending popout.
“Full team win,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. “I think grit is a good word. We’ve had to use a lot of people in the last two days, and we’ve had a lot of people really step up in big moments. So overall, two good team victories.”
Houston’s Tayler Scott pitched three hitless innings in his first big league start this season after Jake Bloss was scratched. The Astros boosted their rotation, acquiring left-hander Yusei Kikuchi from Toronto for Bloss, first baseman/outfielder Joey Loperfido and infielder Will Wagner, son of former pitcher Billy Wagner.
Pittsburgh acquired infielder Nick Yorke from Boston for right-hander Quinn Priester and left-hander Jalen Beeks from Colorado for Double-A left-hander Luis Peralta.
TRAINER’S ROOM
Pirates: LHP Bailey Falter (left triceps tendinitis) was activated from the 15-day injured list and is expected to make his first start since July 6 on Tuesday. … RF Joshua Palacios left with left hamstring discomfort in the fifth, an inning after a groundout. ... CF Ji Hwan Bae left with left knee discomfort. ... OF Bryan Reynolds was activated from the bereavement list and OF Jack Suwinski was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis.
Astros: RHP Justin Verlander and RHP Luis Garcia are on track to throw off a mound on Tuesday, manager Joe Espada said. Garcia will face hitters that will swing while Verlander will face batters that will not swing.
UP NEXT
Falter (4-7, 4.08 ERA) will start the second game of the series for the Pirates on Tuesday. Astros RHP Hunter Brown (9-6, 4.40 ERA) will try to extend his streak of pitching six or more innings in 12 consecutive starts, the second-longest streak in the major leagues this season.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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