Crucial lessons learned from Astros opening day thriller

STONE COLD 'STROS

Crucial lessons learned from Astros opening day thriller
Astros fall to Yankees on Opening Day. Composite Getty Image.

Juan Soto threw out the potential tying run at the plate in the ninth inning of his Yankees debut after starting New York's comeback from a four-run deficit in a season-opening 5-4 win over the Houston Astros on Thursday.

Oswaldo Cabrera homered and Aaron Judge doubled and scored the go-ahead run in the seventh inning as the Yankees went ahead.

Mauricio Dubón and Yordan Alvarez singled off Clay Holmes to give the Astros two on with one out in the ninth. Kyle Tucker lined a single to right and Soto, an All-Star acquired from San Diego in a December trade, made a one-hop throw slightly up the third-base line. Catcher Jose Trevino made a sweep tag and caught Dubón's left arm just before the runner's finger touched the plate. Umpire James Hoye's call was upheld in a video review.

Alex Bregman grounded into a forceout as Holmes got the save.

Joe Espada, in his first game since replacing Dusty Baker as Astros manager, tapped former closer Ryan Pressly to pitch the seventh in Pressly's first appearance in that inning since the 2021 World Series.

Judge greeted him with a double to the left-field corner and scored the go-ahead run on a sacrifice fly by Alex Verdugo, who like Soto was making his Yankees debut.

Chas McCormick hit a two-run single in a three-run first and Jake Meyers homered in the second off Nestor Cortes, who was limited to one major league appearance after May because of a strained left rotator cuff.

Jonathan Loáisiga (1-0) pitched two scoreless innings for the win.

Astros starter Framber Valdez was charged with three runs in 4 2/3 innings, getting double plays to end three of the first four innings. Cabrera hit a tying home run off Rafael Montero in the sixth.

Anthony Rizzo was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in the fifth, his 214th time hit — 60 more than any other active player.

The Yankees debuted a new road uniform for the first time since 1973. It wasn’t a big change but did remove the white piping from around the letters and numbers on their jerseys.

Houston reliever Bryan Abreu served the first of a two-game suspension for intentionally throwing at Texas star Adolis García in last year’s AL Championship Series.

Be sure to watch the video above as we react live to all the action from the Astros' Opening Day loss to the Yankees.

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Houston must improve in close games down the stretch and into October. Composite Getty Image.

While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”

The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.

While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.

There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.

General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…

Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”

Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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