THE PALLILOG
What matters most now in Houston Astros hunt for next manager
Oct 26, 2023, 12:47 pm
AJ Hinch seems unlikely to return as manager, but Brad Ausmus is a real possibilty. Composite Getty Image.
It is a nice ending that Dusty Baker was able to retire from his post as the Astros manager. Not as nice as doing so with a second World Series title as skipper would have been, but the Texas Rangers ended that pursuit. Baker turns 75 years old next June. Smell life’s other roses while ideally keeping one foot in the game as a consultant or in whatever other role. Now that Dusty’s decision is official, it is immaterial that if he chose not to step down, it would have been time to make the decision for him.
Back in 1994 barely a month after the Dallas Cowboys won their second consecutive Super Bowl, owner Jerry Jones, perhaps tipsy at the time in a late night bar chat, said that 500 coaches could have won those Super Bowls with the Cowboys’ roster. That greased the skids for Jimmy Johnson’s departure as head coach less than a month later. Despite Barry Switzer winning a Super Bowl with the Cowboys two seasons later, Jones’s comment was stupid and demeaning of Johnson.
Many an Astros fan probably thinks that with all the talent the Astros have had during this seven year run, 500 managers could have managed them to their successes. 500 seems high, but quite likely many could have. What we do know is that Dusty Baker DID manage the team to four straight American League Championship Series, won two AL pennants, and one World Series. Dusty was a great people person, universally respected, and a man for whom players liked playing. He was not a strong strategist. With specific exceptions, Dusty’s positive traits outrated his tactical shortcomings. The Astros did not win the 2022 World Series because of Dusty Baker. They definitely did not win it in spite of him.
What a life in baseball it has been for Johnnie B. Baker. To most around here Dusty is thought of and will be remembered as a manager. Baker had an excellent playing career. Dusty made his Major League debut as a 19-year-old in 1968, little more than one year after the Atlanta Braves made him their 26th round draft pick. Coincidentally enough Dusty debuted against the Houston Astros (he pinch-hit for future Hall of Famer Phil Niekro and grounded to short).
To offer some perspective on Dusty the player, primarily a left fielder, he is pretty comparable to Michael Brantley. Unless Brantley bucks the odds to put up a couple more very good seasons, Dusty had the better playing career. Baker finished 19 hits short of 2000. He was an everyday player for 12 seasons. He was a key cog on three Los Angeles Dodgers World Series teams. All faced the Yankees, losing back-to-back in 1977 and 1978 before winning in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Baker won the 1977 National League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award. All for a guy who was initially told at 16 years old that because of a heart murmur he couldn’t play sports anymore.
Not to mention (which is a funny phrase because what does anybody do after saying “Not to mention…”? He/she mentions!) that Dusty was the delivering half of what is generally considered to be the first “high five.” That moment occurred after Baker homered off of the Astros’ J.R. Richard on the last day of the 1977 season, giving Baker 30 home runs and making the Dodgers the first team ever to have four players hit 30 homers (Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, and Reggie Smith also hit 30+) the same season. After Baker rounded the bases and headed to the dugout, teammate Glenn Burke had a hand thrust in the air so Dusty jumped and slapped it. And so the “high five” was born.
So who takes the Astros’ managerial reins? The obvious in-house candidate is bench coach Joe Espada. He has paid his proverbial dues as the bench coach, for two seasons with A.J. Hinch then four alongside Baker. What I would want to hear from Espada in his interview is where his approaches/philosophies would differ from Dusty’s. If he didn’t say “Yainer Diaz would have caught a lot more” I probably wouldn’t hire him. Such a response or any other disagreement with Dusty would not be backstabbing. Espada was a loyal lieutenant. If you want to be my general I need honest answers. Don’t disregard that as a first-time manager, Espada would work relatively cheaply.
If Jeff Bagwell’s druthers carry the day, Brad Ausmus was Bagwell’s closest teammate in their playing days. Ausmus last managed in 2019 with the Angels and was fired after one season in which the Angels went 72-90 despite having Mike Trout in one of his Most Valuable Player Award-winning seasons. The Angels had eight starting pitchers make at least 10 starts in 2019. Their earned run averages: 4.29, 4.58, 4.91, 5.38, 5.98, 6.21, 7.09, 7.11. So unless as a brainy catcher in his playing days Ausmus was to blame as manager of a joke of a pitching staff, his Angels’ failure shouldn’t be held against him. Before his brief Angels’ stint Ausmus had two winning seasons and two losing seasons as manager of the Detroit Tigers.
Re: a trio of other names that have been/will be mentioned…
I don’t see Jim Crane having interest in an A.J. Hinch reunion, even if Hinch could get out of the reported two years remaining on his deal with Detroit. Buck Showalter? Fine manager, but not here, not now. LaMarque native and current Arizona Diamondbacks' bench coach Jeff Banister? A Rangers’ castoff? Um, no.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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