THE PALLILOG

What matters most now in Houston Astros hunt for next manager

Astros Dusty Baker, AJ Hinch

AJ Hinch seems unlikely to return as manager, but Brad Ausmus is a real possibilty. Composite Getty Image.

It is a nice ending that Dusty Baker was able to retire from his post as the Astros manager. Not as nice as doing so with a second World Series title as skipper would have been, but the Texas Rangers ended that pursuit. Baker turns 75 years old next June. Smell life’s other roses while ideally keeping one foot in the game as a consultant or in whatever other role. Now that Dusty’s decision is official, it is immaterial that if he chose not to step down, it would have been time to make the decision for him.

Back in 1994 barely a month after the Dallas Cowboys won their second consecutive Super Bowl, owner Jerry Jones, perhaps tipsy at the time in a late night bar chat, said that 500 coaches could have won those Super Bowls with the Cowboys’ roster. That greased the skids for Jimmy Johnson’s departure as head coach less than a month later. Despite Barry Switzer winning a Super Bowl with the Cowboys two seasons later, Jones’s comment was stupid and demeaning of Johnson.

Many an Astros fan probably thinks that with all the talent the Astros have had during this seven year run, 500 managers could have managed them to their successes. 500 seems high, but quite likely many could have. What we do know is that Dusty Baker DID manage the team to four straight American League Championship Series, won two AL pennants, and one World Series. Dusty was a great people person, universally respected, and a man for whom players liked playing. He was not a strong strategist. With specific exceptions, Dusty’s positive traits outrated his tactical shortcomings. The Astros did not win the 2022 World Series because of Dusty Baker. They definitely did not win it in spite of him.

What a life in baseball it has been for Johnnie B. Baker. To most around here Dusty is thought of and will be remembered as a manager. Baker had an excellent playing career. Dusty made his Major League debut as a 19-year-old in 1968, little more than one year after the Atlanta Braves made him their 26th round draft pick. Coincidentally enough Dusty debuted against the Houston Astros (he pinch-hit for future Hall of Famer Phil Niekro and grounded to short).

To offer some perspective on Dusty the player, primarily a left fielder, he is pretty comparable to Michael Brantley. Unless Brantley bucks the odds to put up a couple more very good seasons, Dusty had the better playing career. Baker finished 19 hits short of 2000. He was an everyday player for 12 seasons. He was a key cog on three Los Angeles Dodgers World Series teams. All faced the Yankees, losing back-to-back in 1977 and 1978 before winning in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Baker won the 1977 National League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award. All for a guy who was initially told at 16 years old that because of a heart murmur he couldn’t play sports anymore.

Not to mention (which is a funny phrase because what does anybody do after saying “Not to mention…”? He/she mentions!) that Dusty was the delivering half of what is generally considered to be the first “high five.” That moment occurred after Baker homered off of the Astros’ J.R. Richard on the last day of the 1977 season, giving Baker 30 home runs and making the Dodgers the first team ever to have four players hit 30 homers (Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, and Reggie Smith also hit 30+) the same season. After Baker rounded the bases and headed to the dugout, teammate Glenn Burke had a hand thrust in the air so Dusty jumped and slapped it. And so the “high five” was born.

So who takes the Astros’ managerial reins? The obvious in-house candidate is bench coach Joe Espada. He has paid his proverbial dues as the bench coach, for two seasons with A.J. Hinch then four alongside Baker. What I would want to hear from Espada in his interview is where his approaches/philosophies would differ from Dusty’s. If he didn’t say “Yainer Diaz would have caught a lot more” I probably wouldn’t hire him. Such a response or any other disagreement with Dusty would not be backstabbing. Espada was a loyal lieutenant. If you want to be my general I need honest answers. Don’t disregard that as a first-time manager, Espada would work relatively cheaply.

If Jeff Bagwell’s druthers carry the day, Brad Ausmus was Bagwell’s closest teammate in their playing days. Ausmus last managed in 2019 with the Angels and was fired after one season in which the Angels went 72-90 despite having Mike Trout in one of his Most Valuable Player Award-winning seasons. The Angels had eight starting pitchers make at least 10 starts in 2019. Their earned run averages: 4.29, 4.58, 4.91, 5.38, 5.98, 6.21, 7.09, 7.11. So unless as a brainy catcher in his playing days Ausmus was to blame as manager of a joke of a pitching staff, his Angels’ failure shouldn’t be held against him. Before his brief Angels’ stint Ausmus had two winning seasons and two losing seasons as manager of the Detroit Tigers.

Re: a trio of other names that have been/will be mentioned…

I don’t see Jim Crane having interest in an A.J. Hinch reunion, even if Hinch could get out of the reported two years remaining on his deal with Detroit. Buck Showalter? Fine manager, but not here, not now. LaMarque native and current Arizona Diamondbacks' bench coach Jeff Banister? A Rangers’ castoff? Um, no.

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Who can the Astros turn to? Composite Getty Image.

In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.

Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?

The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.

Batter up?

While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.

Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.

GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?

Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.

Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.

No regrets?

There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.

Big deals on the horizon?

All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.

The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.

We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!

*ChatGPT assisted.

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