THE PALLILOG
What matters most now in Houston Astros hunt for next manager
Oct 26, 2023, 12:47 pm
THE PALLILOG
AJ Hinch seems unlikely to return as manager, but Brad Ausmus is a real possibilty. Composite Getty Image.
It is a nice ending that Dusty Baker was able to retire from his post as the Astros manager. Not as nice as doing so with a second World Series title as skipper would have been, but the Texas Rangers ended that pursuit. Baker turns 75 years old next June. Smell life’s other roses while ideally keeping one foot in the game as a consultant or in whatever other role. Now that Dusty’s decision is official, it is immaterial that if he chose not to step down, it would have been time to make the decision for him.
Back in 1994 barely a month after the Dallas Cowboys won their second consecutive Super Bowl, owner Jerry Jones, perhaps tipsy at the time in a late night bar chat, said that 500 coaches could have won those Super Bowls with the Cowboys’ roster. That greased the skids for Jimmy Johnson’s departure as head coach less than a month later. Despite Barry Switzer winning a Super Bowl with the Cowboys two seasons later, Jones’s comment was stupid and demeaning of Johnson.
Many an Astros fan probably thinks that with all the talent the Astros have had during this seven year run, 500 managers could have managed them to their successes. 500 seems high, but quite likely many could have. What we do know is that Dusty Baker DID manage the team to four straight American League Championship Series, won two AL pennants, and one World Series. Dusty was a great people person, universally respected, and a man for whom players liked playing. He was not a strong strategist. With specific exceptions, Dusty’s positive traits outrated his tactical shortcomings. The Astros did not win the 2022 World Series because of Dusty Baker. They definitely did not win it in spite of him.
What a life in baseball it has been for Johnnie B. Baker. To most around here Dusty is thought of and will be remembered as a manager. Baker had an excellent playing career. Dusty made his Major League debut as a 19-year-old in 1968, little more than one year after the Atlanta Braves made him their 26th round draft pick. Coincidentally enough Dusty debuted against the Houston Astros (he pinch-hit for future Hall of Famer Phil Niekro and grounded to short).
To offer some perspective on Dusty the player, primarily a left fielder, he is pretty comparable to Michael Brantley. Unless Brantley bucks the odds to put up a couple more very good seasons, Dusty had the better playing career. Baker finished 19 hits short of 2000. He was an everyday player for 12 seasons. He was a key cog on three Los Angeles Dodgers World Series teams. All faced the Yankees, losing back-to-back in 1977 and 1978 before winning in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Baker won the 1977 National League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award. All for a guy who was initially told at 16 years old that because of a heart murmur he couldn’t play sports anymore.
Not to mention (which is a funny phrase because what does anybody do after saying “Not to mention…”? He/she mentions!) that Dusty was the delivering half of what is generally considered to be the first “high five.” That moment occurred after Baker homered off of the Astros’ J.R. Richard on the last day of the 1977 season, giving Baker 30 home runs and making the Dodgers the first team ever to have four players hit 30 homers (Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, and Reggie Smith also hit 30+) the same season. After Baker rounded the bases and headed to the dugout, teammate Glenn Burke had a hand thrust in the air so Dusty jumped and slapped it. And so the “high five” was born.
So who takes the Astros’ managerial reins? The obvious in-house candidate is bench coach Joe Espada. He has paid his proverbial dues as the bench coach, for two seasons with A.J. Hinch then four alongside Baker. What I would want to hear from Espada in his interview is where his approaches/philosophies would differ from Dusty’s. If he didn’t say “Yainer Diaz would have caught a lot more” I probably wouldn’t hire him. Such a response or any other disagreement with Dusty would not be backstabbing. Espada was a loyal lieutenant. If you want to be my general I need honest answers. Don’t disregard that as a first-time manager, Espada would work relatively cheaply.
If Jeff Bagwell’s druthers carry the day, Brad Ausmus was Bagwell’s closest teammate in their playing days. Ausmus last managed in 2019 with the Angels and was fired after one season in which the Angels went 72-90 despite having Mike Trout in one of his Most Valuable Player Award-winning seasons. The Angels had eight starting pitchers make at least 10 starts in 2019. Their earned run averages: 4.29, 4.58, 4.91, 5.38, 5.98, 6.21, 7.09, 7.11. So unless as a brainy catcher in his playing days Ausmus was to blame as manager of a joke of a pitching staff, his Angels’ failure shouldn’t be held against him. Before his brief Angels’ stint Ausmus had two winning seasons and two losing seasons as manager of the Detroit Tigers.
Re: a trio of other names that have been/will be mentioned…
I don’t see Jim Crane having interest in an A.J. Hinch reunion, even if Hinch could get out of the reported two years remaining on his deal with Detroit. Buck Showalter? Fine manager, but not here, not now. LaMarque native and current Arizona Diamondbacks' bench coach Jeff Banister? A Rangers’ castoff? Um, no.
The Houston Astros entered the 2025 MLB Draft with limited capital but a clear objective: find talent that can help sustain their winning ways without needing a full organizational reboot. With just under $7.2 million in bonus pool money and two forfeited picks, lost when they signed slugger Christian Walker, the Astros needed to be smart, aggressive, and a little bold. They were all three.
A swing on star power
With the 21st overall pick, Houston selected Xavier Neyens, a powerful left-handed high school bat from Mt. Vernon, Washington. At 6-foot-4, Neyens is raw but loaded with tools, a slugger with plus power and the kind of bat speed that turns heads.
He’s the Astros’ first high school position player taken in the first round in a decade.
If Neyens develops as expected, he could be the next cornerstone in the post-Altuve/Bregman era. Via: MLB.com:
It’s possible we’ll look back at this first round and realize that the Astros got the best power hitter in the class. At times, Neyens has looked like an elite hitter who’d easily get to that pop, and at times the swing-and-miss tendencies concerned scouts, which is why he didn’t end up closer to the top of the first round. He was announced as a shortstop, but his size (6-foot-4) and his arm will profile best at third base.
Their next big swing came in the third round with Ethan Frey, an outfielder/DH from LSU who was one of the most imposing college hitters in the country.
He blasted 13 home runs in the SEC and helped lead the Tigers to a championship.
Filling the middle
In the fourth round, the Astros grabbed Nick Monistere, an infielder/outfielder out of Southern Miss who won Sun Belt Player of the Year honors.
If Kendall likes the pick, I like the pick. https://t.co/NQKqEHFxtV
— Jeremy Branham (@JeremyBranham) July 14, 2025
He doesn’t jump off the page with tools, but he rakes, hitting .323 with 21 home runs this past season, and plays with a chip on his shoulder.
They followed that up with Nick Potter, a right-handed reliever from Wichita State. He projects as a fast-moving bullpen piece, already showing a mature approach and a “fastball that was regularly clocked in the upper-90s and touched 100 miles per hour.”
From there, Houston doubled down on pitching depth and versatility. They took Gabel Pentecost, a Division II flamethrower, Jase Mitchell, a high school catcher with upside, and a host of college arms, all in hopes of finding the next Spencer Arrighetti or Hunter Brown.
Strategy in motion
Missing multiple picks, Houston leaned into two things: ceiling and speed to the majors. Neyens brings the first, Frey and Monistere the second. And as they’ve shown in recent years, the Astros can develop arms with late-round pedigree into major league contributors.
The Astros didn’t walk away with flashy headlines, they weren’t drafting in the top 10. But they leave the 2025 draft with a clear direction: keep the farm alive with bats that can produce and arms that can fill in the gaps, especially with the club managing injuries and an aging core.
If Neyens becomes the slugger they hope, and if Frey or Monistere climbs fast, this draft could be another example of Houston turning limited resources into lasting impact.
You can see the full draft tracker here.
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