ASTROS-MARINERS GAME PREVIEW

Crucial elements in Astros' push to take division with win over Mariners

Astros Framber Valdez, Yainer Diaz
Framber Valdez can help the Astros clinch the division Tuesday night. Composite Getty Image.

The Seattle Mariners (81-76) and Houston Astros (85-72) face off Tuesday night at 8:10 p.m. EDT for the second game of their crucial three-game series. The Mariners currently hold a 1-0 lead in the series after defeating Houston 6-1 on Monday.

Pitching Probables:

  • Mariners: Logan Gilbert (8-11, 3.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 207 strikeouts) has been a strong performer for Seattle all season, boasting a WHIP under 1.00. He will look to continue dominating as the Mariners push for playoff contention.
  • Astros: Framber Valdez (14-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 165 strikeouts) gets the start for Houston. Valdez has been the Astros' ace this season, leading the team with 14 wins and a stellar 2.85 ERA.

Line:

  • BETMGM Sportsbook: Astros -136, Mariners +115, over/under set at 7 runs.

Bottom Line:
The Mariners, 7-4 against the Astros this season, look to build on their Monday win. Seattle has struggled on the road (35-44), but their MLB-leading 3.51 ERA makes them a tough matchup for Houston. Meanwhile, the Astros are 45-34 at home and boast the third-best team batting average in MLB at .262.

Top Performers:

  • Astros: Alex Bregman continues to produce for Houston, with 25 home runs and 73 RBI this season. Kyle Tucker is also in fine form, hitting 13-for-34 with three home runs over the past 10 games.
  • Mariners: Julio Rodríguez remains a key player for Seattle, with 19 home runs and 17 doubles. Luke Raley has also been solid recently, going 9-for-31 with two home runs over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Astros: 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a .262 team batting average and 4.45 ERA, outscoring opponents by just three runs.
  • Mariners: 7-3 over their last 10 games, hitting .294 with a 3.39 team ERA, outscoring opponents by 14 runs.

Tuesday’s game will be critical for both teams as they battle for playoff positioning in the tight AL West race.


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Should Ryan Pressly and Framber Valdez be on the trading block? Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros have some big decisions to make this offseason and deciding whether to re-sign Alex Bregman is only part of the equation.

Following the Astros being eliminated by the Tigers, GM Dana Brown said the club may have to get “creative” this offseason, and exploring the trade market could be a real possibility.

With so much salary already committed to Rafael Montero, Jose Abreu, and Lance McCullers for the 2025 season, it's hard to believe the club will be spending a bunch of money in free agency.

Which also means they may elect to let Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi come off the books permanently and sign elsewhere.

(For the purposes of this video, we're going to be talking about the pitching specifically. If you want to hear our thoughts on the outlook for the offense, be sure to watch our video from last week. You can find it here.)

If the Astros do consider making a trade this offseason, which pitchers would make the most sense to deal? Let's start with Framber Valdez. The club should be able to get a big haul for Framber, and he's projected to make around $18 million this season.

Framber is also a free agent after 2025, so his time in Houston may be coming to an end in the near future anyway.

Typically, we wouldn't consider the possibility of the Astros trading Framber one year before free agency. History tells us they let players walk after the final year of their contract. They didn't trade Bregman before the 2024 season, and we know what happened with George Springer, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Correa.

But the Astros are in a different place now than they were a few years ago. The current version of the Astros aren't nearly as deep as those other teams.

The 'Stros don't regularly win 100 games like they used to. They're just another contending team over the past two seasons. But fortunately for them, they're in the AL West. So they should have a great shot to win the division once again.

But as currently constructed, they're not the dominate team they were a few years ago. Trading Valdez could bring some young talent into the organization and safe the club money that could be reallocated to other parts of the team (outfield, first base). They should be looking for a trade similar to what the Brewers received for Corbin Burnes.

If the Astros don't plan on offering Framber a long-term deal, then why not get something for him while they still can?

Astros owner Jim Crane would probably argue that he wouldn't want to trade away his best pitcher in what could be Kyle Tucker's final year with Houston. Which is a fair point, and why this probably won't happen, considering their history with players in the final year of their contracts. But based on everything laid out above, it might be time for a change in philosophy.

Another player they could look to move is Ryan Pressly. Would he be willing to waive his no-trade clause for the right situation? Pressly is 35 years old and in the last year of his contract. He's set to make $14 million this season, and one could argue that it's time for Bryan Abreu to take over the setup role. Pressly has done some amazing things for this organization, but $14 million for a seventh inning guy is hard to justify. And just to be clear, we're not letting Josh Hader off the hook. Pressly had a lower ERA than Hader in 2024. But good luck finding anyone that would trade for Hader's massive contract.

This is one video you don't want to miss as we evaluate the Astros pitching staff heading into 2025, and explore some trade possibilities that could improve the roster in the short and long-term!

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