THE PALLILOG

How these unmistakable factors position Astros for commanding second half push

Astros Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Josh Hader
It's go time! Composite Getty Image.

96 games down, 66 games to go as the Astros tackle a fairly significant series in Seattle to open up the figurative second half of the season Friday night. It’s actually just over 40 percent of the schedule remaining. With the Astros having closed within one game of the Mariners in the American League West it’s the biggest series possible for them as the season resumes. But it’s not remotely make or break. Measuring by run differential the Astros should already be out front. They have outscored their opponents by 49 runs while Seattle is just plus-19. The actual standings can be explained in no small part by this comparison: in one-run games the Astros are a pitiful 7-17 while the Mariners are 19-14.

The spectrum of outcomes this weekend ranges from the Astros sweeping and leaving the Emerald City two games on top, to getting swept and heading down the coast to Oakland four games behind. Of note, the Mariners beat the Astros in five of the seven meetings to date this season. So if Seattle wins this series it clinches the season series and playoff tiebreaker should a spot come down to it. The Astros and Mariners have another series to come after this one, three games in Houston the final week of the regular season.

Trade deadline looming

What may be even more important than this weekend’s games is who gets what done between now and the July 30 trade deadline. With Justin Verlander clearly not close to returning, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss both performance question marks, and both Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown being asked to handle unprecedented workloads for them, the Astros’ rotation needs obvious fortification. The Mariners’ rotation is second to none in the American League and their bullpen is good. Seattle’s lineup is atrocious. The Chicago White Sox are on pace to be one of the worst teams of all-time. The ChiSox’ offense is a joke with a team batting average of .220. The Mariners’ team average is .219. Only the White Sox and pathetic Marlins are scoring fewer runs per game than the M’s.

The Mariners have 11 players with at least 100 at bats this season. Eight of them have an OPS of .690 or lower. Cal Raleigh has the highest at .734. The Astros have 12 guys with at least 100 at bats including Jose Abreu. Abreu, Chas McCormick, and Mauricio Dubon are the only .690 or worse OPS guys. Kyle Tucker is the Astros’ OPS leader by a significant margin, .979 to Yordan Alvarez’s .912. What’s that you ask? Who is this Kyle Tucker? 35 missed games and counting for “Tuck” with his leg bone bruise, with return not imminent. T-Mobile Park is a notably better pitchers’ park than is Minute Maid Park, but not enough to shrug off the Mariners’ offensive ineptitude. The Mariners team payroll is more than 100 million dollars below the Astros’ payroll. The Mariners have the clearly better farm system from which to deal. If Seattle doesn’t add offense, its ownership and front office will deserve a continued fade in the second half, on top of the Mariners’ 8-15 gimp into the All-Star break.

Don't forget about the Rangers

With the Astros and Mariners going at it this weekend with the division lead in the balance, a reminder that this is not a two-team race. The Texas Rangers rallying to take the final two games at Minute Maid Park last weekend sent up a flare that the reigning World Series Champions are definitely still in the picture. The Rangers sit four games behind the Astros, five back of the Mariners. If the Rangers manage to win their series in Arlington with the Orioles this weekend, they are guaranteed to gain ground on at least one team ahead of them. The Astros-Rangers season series sits tied at five wins apiece with three games left, it will be decided in Arlington the first week of August. The Rangers and Mariners play seven more times.

In broader view, as measured by opponents’ records, the Astros have the toughest remaining schedule among the three. Among the 30 big league clubs the Rangers have the fourth easiest slate left, the Mariners have the fifth easiest, the Astros have the 15th easiest. If the Astros ultimately are not to win the West, there is the Wild Card race to keep in mind. The Astros are seven games behind the Yankees, four behind the Twins, and three and a half back of the Red Sox. Those three currently hold the Wild Card spots. The Astros are also a game and a half behind the Royals. The Astros have already lost the season series and tiebreakers to the Yankees, Twins, and Royals. The Astros and Red Sox have all six of their meetings yet to come.

Remembering Ken Hoffman

This is my first column since the passing last Sunday of my friend and eventual colleague Ken Hoffman. I originally learned of Ken’s quirkiness and wit through his columns at the Houston Post. He was a big sports fan. Our friendship was driven in part by our shared passion for tennis. We played probably more than a thousand times over nearly 20 years. Tennis and baseball were Ken’s two favorite sports. His two favorite athletes were Roger Federer and Jose Altuve. Well, after he and his wife Erin’s son Andrew, who was a pitcher on Trinity University’s 2016 NCAA Division Three national championship-winning team.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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The Jets have interest in Texans OC Bobby Slowik. Composite Getty Image.

The New York Jets interviewed Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and Houston Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik for their head coach position Thursday.

The meetings with Smith and Slowik gave the Jets 12 known candidates with whom they've spoken about their vacancy.

New York has also interviewed Aaron Glenn, Vance Joseph, Mike Locksley, Matt Nagy, Ron Rivera, Darren Rizzi, Rex Ryan, Steve Spagnuolo, Jeff Ulbrich and Mike Vrabel for the job. Vrabel has since been hired by New England as its coach.

Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley are also expected to meet soon with the Jets.

The 42-year-old Smith, who was the Atlanta Falcons' head coach from 2021-23, was considered one of the Jets' top candidates in 2021 when he interviewed with the team before New York hired Robert Saleh. Smith was hired by the Falcons the next day and went 21-30, with three straight 7-10 finishes, before being fired after the 2023 season.

Mike Tomlin hired Smith last offseason to run the Steelers' offense, which improved in several categories this season with Russell Wilson at quarterback as Pittsburgh made the playoffs.

Smith spent 10 years with Tennessee, including the last two as the Titans' offensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020. He previously had a stint with Washington as its defensive quality control coach in between college stops at North Carolina (2006) and Mississippi (2010).

The 37-year-old Slowik met with the Jets in a video interview since the Texans remain in the playoffs and are preparing to face the Chiefs in Kansas City on Saturday.

He's in his second year running the Texans' offense with quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was last season's AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and has been one of the league's most dynamic young playmakers.

Slowik, whose father Bob coaches in the CFL after several years as an NFL assistant, spent six years as an assistant under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco before joining the Texans. The Princeton, New Jersey, native started his pro coaching career as a video assistant for Washington in 2010 before being promoted to defensive assistant, a role he held for three years. Slowik then worked at Pro Football Focus as a senior analyst for three years before being hired by the 49ers.

The Jets are also conducting an extensive search for a new general manager. They have interviewed 15 candidates for that position, including Green Bay Packers executive Jon-Eric Sullivan and Miami Dolphins assistant general manager Brian Gaine on Tuesday.

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