IMPLICATIONS GO THROUGH H-TOWN
How Houston Astros can single-handedly alter entire complexion of MLB playoffs
Sep 30, 2022, 1:08 pm
These next six games will be very telling. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images.
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Houston has six games left in the 2022 regular season, two three-game series in which they need just one more win, or a Yankees loss, to secure the top seed for the AL side of the postseason bracket. They've accomplished what they set out to do over the 162-game drudge that is the regular season, so you're likely to see them use the opportunity to get some players off their feet in the remaining games.
Even so, having one of the best teams means that while putting out a lineup with some starters missing, they can still beat most teams on any given day. So then, what could that mean for the teams still vying for postseason spots or positioning in the remaining games?
Affecting the NL playoffs
It's a relatively sure bet that if they haven't locked up that top seed by the time they enter the final three games, they will before that last series is over. That means that when the Phillies come to Minute Maid Park to close out the season next week, Philadelphia will have much higher stakes in those games than Houston.
Under the expanded playoff format starting this season, the two best teams in each league receive a bye, while the remaining four teams square off in a Wild Card series, with all those games taking place at the better seed's stadium. That means teams will be very motivated to secure their best Wild Card positioning.
As of now, the Phillies hold just a half-game lead over the Brewers for the third and final Wild Card spot for the National League. Things could change this weekend, but whether they still lead or have fallen back and have ground to makeup, the games will matter to them against the Astros.
They also sit 2.5 games behind the Padres, meaning that Philadelphia could potentially be looking at a chance to jump into the second Wild Card spot. However, it's questionable if that's an envious position or not. With the juggernaut battle between the Mets and Braves coming down to the wire, with one team winning the NL East and a first-round bye and the other starting with home-field advantage in a Wild Card series, whoever gets the second Wild Card spot is going to be heading to face a really tough, and potentially angry, team on the road.
It will make things interesting for the Phillies when they face the Astros. They could be playing for their playoff lives or jockeying for position. Either way, the games will be meaningful.
Affecting the AL playoffs
There's a similar scenario at play for the American League side of things with the Astros' three-game series against the Rays this weekend. Just like the Phillies, the Rays enter the weekend holding on to the third and final spot in the AL Wild Card race.
Tampa Bay is only 0.5 games back of the Mariners for the second spot and two games back of the Blue Jays for the first Wild Card spot. Farther behind, the Orioles still have a chance for something crazy to happen, sitting five games behind.
So based on the result of their series with the Astros and how the other teams fare this weekend and in the final stretch of games, the Rays have a range of outcomes that could cause havoc in the AL bracket. They could end up taking the top Wild Card spot and hosting a series, traveling to face the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Guardians, or, less likely, missing the playoffs altogether.
This variance in positioning could have ramifications for the Astros directly in the ALDS round as well. The Astros are likely to be favored regardless of the three potential teams they face; however, some matchups would make things easier.
Houston went 2-4 against the Blue Jays this year and are currently up 3-0 on the Rays with the three games remaining in the season series. And while the Astros took the season series 12-7 against division-rival Seattle, that could give the Mariners all the more reason to be ultra-motivated for the ALDS if they faced the Astros.
So, while the Astros may not have any direct milestones to play for other than locking up their top seed, these remaining six games will have plenty of storylines and drama to follow for them and their opponent.
The Houston Astros closed out a powerful homestand with a statement series win over the Cubs, led by the continued emergence of Cam Smith and the lockdown stuff of Bryan Abreu. Smith, who seems to live for high-leverage moments, went toe-to-toe with Kyle Tucker and delivered again and again, further cementing his place in Houston’s growing offensive core. Meanwhile, Abreu was simply untouchable—striking out all four batters he faced in a lights-out appearance on Thursday and returning Sunday to toss two scoreless innings in front of Josh Hader’s 23rd straight save. The bullpen continues to impress.
As Houston heads west for a six-game road trip, starting with the Rockies and ending with the Dodgers, the rotation will remain under the microscope. On paper, the Rockies series should be a tune-up—Colorado owns the worst record in baseball. But even in a small three-game set, anything can happen. The Dodgers are a different animal entirely. They’ve been the class of the National League and pose a challenge that may mirror what the Astros saw from the Phillies and Cubs—but this time, Houston won’t have the advantage of home field. Considering the team’s elite pitching and recent play, the Astros should still feel confident, but they’ll need to prove they can sustain this level on the road.
Trade speculation is beginning to swirl, particularly around Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. Mullins hasn’t lit it up this season—he’s hitting just .213—but his 12 home runs suggest some underlying pop. Houston may believe there's untapped potential in his swing that can be unlocked. It's a move that would fit the Astros’ track record: buying low on a talented player and letting their system do the rest.
Speaking of roster decisions, Christian Walker's bat is officially on watch. Despite showing flashes of life earlier this season, Walker hit just .221 in June and has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has been crushing home runs in Sugar Land and waiting patiently for another big-league shot. The organization has to be thinking about giving Singleton a chance if Walker’s struggles continue.
But not every question has an immediate answer. Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from the injured list was rocky at best, surrendering eight runs in a short outing. Still, the reaction from fans calling for his release is premature at best and delusional at worst. Joe Espada left him in too long, and everyone knew it. It's still June, and McCullers is a proven postseason arm. He’s not going anywhere, not with that contract—and frankly, not with the upside he still offers.
More to the story
Then there's Jeremy Peña. The hope was that his sore ribs were nothing serious. That changed after the homestand, when further imaging revealed a small fracture and landed Peña on the 10-day IL. It’s a frustrating development, but credit the Astros’ medical staff for pushing for clarity—learning from the Yordan Alvarez situation this year. With superagent Scott Boras now representing him, it appeared negotiations were over. But Astros GM Dana Brown revealed on the pregame show this weekend that he’s already reached back out to Boras to reopen the conversation. Whether both sides can agree to new terms is a different story.
So while the Astros leave home riding a wave of momentum, the road ahead holds tougher matchups, key roster questions, and new injury concerns. They’ve shown they’re built to weather all of it. Now they’ll have to prove it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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