IMPLICATIONS GO THROUGH H-TOWN
How Houston Astros can single-handedly alter entire complexion of MLB playoffs
Sep 30, 2022, 1:08 pm
IMPLICATIONS GO THROUGH H-TOWN
Houston has six games left in the 2022 regular season, two three-game series in which they need just one more win, or a Yankees loss, to secure the top seed for the AL side of the postseason bracket. They've accomplished what they set out to do over the 162-game drudge that is the regular season, so you're likely to see them use the opportunity to get some players off their feet in the remaining games.
Even so, having one of the best teams means that while putting out a lineup with some starters missing, they can still beat most teams on any given day. So then, what could that mean for the teams still vying for postseason spots or positioning in the remaining games?
It's a relatively sure bet that if they haven't locked up that top seed by the time they enter the final three games, they will before that last series is over. That means that when the Phillies come to Minute Maid Park to close out the season next week, Philadelphia will have much higher stakes in those games than Houston.
Under the expanded playoff format starting this season, the two best teams in each league receive a bye, while the remaining four teams square off in a Wild Card series, with all those games taking place at the better seed's stadium. That means teams will be very motivated to secure their best Wild Card positioning.
As of now, the Phillies hold just a half-game lead over the Brewers for the third and final Wild Card spot for the National League. Things could change this weekend, but whether they still lead or have fallen back and have ground to makeup, the games will matter to them against the Astros.
They also sit 2.5 games behind the Padres, meaning that Philadelphia could potentially be looking at a chance to jump into the second Wild Card spot. However, it's questionable if that's an envious position or not. With the juggernaut battle between the Mets and Braves coming down to the wire, with one team winning the NL East and a first-round bye and the other starting with home-field advantage in a Wild Card series, whoever gets the second Wild Card spot is going to be heading to face a really tough, and potentially angry, team on the road.
It will make things interesting for the Phillies when they face the Astros. They could be playing for their playoff lives or jockeying for position. Either way, the games will be meaningful.
There's a similar scenario at play for the American League side of things with the Astros' three-game series against the Rays this weekend. Just like the Phillies, the Rays enter the weekend holding on to the third and final spot in the AL Wild Card race.
Tampa Bay is only 0.5 games back of the Mariners for the second spot and two games back of the Blue Jays for the first Wild Card spot. Farther behind, the Orioles still have a chance for something crazy to happen, sitting five games behind.
So based on the result of their series with the Astros and how the other teams fare this weekend and in the final stretch of games, the Rays have a range of outcomes that could cause havoc in the AL bracket. They could end up taking the top Wild Card spot and hosting a series, traveling to face the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Guardians, or, less likely, missing the playoffs altogether.
This variance in positioning could have ramifications for the Astros directly in the ALDS round as well. The Astros are likely to be favored regardless of the three potential teams they face; however, some matchups would make things easier.
Houston went 2-4 against the Blue Jays this year and are currently up 3-0 on the Rays with the three games remaining in the season series. And while the Astros took the season series 12-7 against division-rival Seattle, that could give the Mariners all the more reason to be ultra-motivated for the ALDS if they faced the Astros.
So, while the Astros may not have any direct milestones to play for other than locking up their top seed, these remaining six games will have plenty of storylines and drama to follow for them and their opponent.
Over the weekend, the big domino finally fell with Juan Soto agreeing to a 15-year, $765 million megadeal with the New York Mets. Which means Alex Bregman and the other top free agents on the market should soon follow in short order.
In fact, we're already seeing reports from Rob Bradford of WEEI and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale claiming that the Red Sox and Yankees are “expected” to make a run at Bregman.
Soto heading to the National League certainly feels like a win for Astros fans, but that could change if missing out on Soto causes the Yankees to pry Breggy away from Houston.
We'll have to wait and see how this plays out before we get too excited. However, one thing is for sure, all the free agents on the market have to be thrilled about the size of Soto's deal. Not to mention Willy Adames' 7-year, $182 million deal with the Giants that could help Bregman's chances of receiving a more lucrative deal than the Astros reportedly offered him, 6- years, $154 million.
What's really eye-opening about Soto's contract is how it could impact Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker, specifically Tucker. It's hard to imagine Tucker won't get an offer of at least $300 million, and at this point $400 million wouldn't surprise us.
Historically, the Astros don't trade their big name free agents before their contracts expire, but perhaps they should rethink that approach with King Tuck. If they won't even entertain a deal approaching $300 million, it might be worth taking a step back this year to replenish the farm system and focus on the team long-term.
Speaking of trades, the Astros are reportedly calling anyone who will listen about the availability of Ryan Pressly.
Don't miss the video above as we react to the Soto deal, share our thoughts on how it could impact the Astros championship window, and much more!