IMPLICATIONS GO THROUGH H-TOWN
How Houston Astros can single-handedly alter entire complexion of MLB playoffs
Sep 30, 2022, 1:08 pm
IMPLICATIONS GO THROUGH H-TOWN
Houston has six games left in the 2022 regular season, two three-game series in which they need just one more win, or a Yankees loss, to secure the top seed for the AL side of the postseason bracket. They've accomplished what they set out to do over the 162-game drudge that is the regular season, so you're likely to see them use the opportunity to get some players off their feet in the remaining games.
Even so, having one of the best teams means that while putting out a lineup with some starters missing, they can still beat most teams on any given day. So then, what could that mean for the teams still vying for postseason spots or positioning in the remaining games?
It's a relatively sure bet that if they haven't locked up that top seed by the time they enter the final three games, they will before that last series is over. That means that when the Phillies come to Minute Maid Park to close out the season next week, Philadelphia will have much higher stakes in those games than Houston.
Under the expanded playoff format starting this season, the two best teams in each league receive a bye, while the remaining four teams square off in a Wild Card series, with all those games taking place at the better seed's stadium. That means teams will be very motivated to secure their best Wild Card positioning.
As of now, the Phillies hold just a half-game lead over the Brewers for the third and final Wild Card spot for the National League. Things could change this weekend, but whether they still lead or have fallen back and have ground to makeup, the games will matter to them against the Astros.
They also sit 2.5 games behind the Padres, meaning that Philadelphia could potentially be looking at a chance to jump into the second Wild Card spot. However, it's questionable if that's an envious position or not. With the juggernaut battle between the Mets and Braves coming down to the wire, with one team winning the NL East and a first-round bye and the other starting with home-field advantage in a Wild Card series, whoever gets the second Wild Card spot is going to be heading to face a really tough, and potentially angry, team on the road.
It will make things interesting for the Phillies when they face the Astros. They could be playing for their playoff lives or jockeying for position. Either way, the games will be meaningful.
There's a similar scenario at play for the American League side of things with the Astros' three-game series against the Rays this weekend. Just like the Phillies, the Rays enter the weekend holding on to the third and final spot in the AL Wild Card race.
Tampa Bay is only 0.5 games back of the Mariners for the second spot and two games back of the Blue Jays for the first Wild Card spot. Farther behind, the Orioles still have a chance for something crazy to happen, sitting five games behind.
So based on the result of their series with the Astros and how the other teams fare this weekend and in the final stretch of games, the Rays have a range of outcomes that could cause havoc in the AL bracket. They could end up taking the top Wild Card spot and hosting a series, traveling to face the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Guardians, or, less likely, missing the playoffs altogether.
This variance in positioning could have ramifications for the Astros directly in the ALDS round as well. The Astros are likely to be favored regardless of the three potential teams they face; however, some matchups would make things easier.
Houston went 2-4 against the Blue Jays this year and are currently up 3-0 on the Rays with the three games remaining in the season series. And while the Astros took the season series 12-7 against division-rival Seattle, that could give the Mariners all the more reason to be ultra-motivated for the ALDS if they faced the Astros.
So, while the Astros may not have any direct milestones to play for other than locking up their top seed, these remaining six games will have plenty of storylines and drama to follow for them and their opponent.
Thoughts on Rockies-Astros series
After a rough opening loss to the Rockies, where Hunter Brown got knocked around early, the Astros regrouped and took the final two games to secure the series win. Framber Valdez delivered a much-needed dominant outing, a welcome sight after several shaky starts in August. Jason Alexander did his job as well, pounding the zone and keeping Houston within striking distance until the bats broke through.
Christian Walker provided the big swing in the finale with a go-ahead home run late, continuing his red-hot stretch — five homers in his last seven games. On the pitching side, Brian King and Bryan Abreu both turned in strong work to help close the door for Houston.
Yordan’s impact on the lineup
If Walker keeps producing near his career norms and Yordan Alvarez stays healthy, the Astros’ offense has the potential to overwhelm. Yordan’s return was immediately felt against the Rockies, giving the lineup a depth and presence that manager Joe Espada can slot anywhere.
With Jeremy Peña, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yordan, Walker, Jesus Sánchez, and eventually Yainer Díaz forming the top seven, Houston suddenly looks as deep as any contender. Add Jake Meyers once he’s back, and the order stretches even further.
Sánchez, who snapped out of a brutal 0-for-27 slump, has quietly rebounded. Over his last 11 games, he’s batting .294 with a .529 slugging percentage and two home runs, giving Houston a second left-handed bat to pair with Yordan. Combine that with Correa — who leads the team in batting average since rejoining at the trade deadline — and it’s an offense poised for a major finishing kick.
Lance McCullers moves to the bullpen
McCullers has walked as many or more hitters than innings pitched in four of his last five outings, and command remains his biggest issue. A move to the bullpen doesn’t necessarily solve that problem — in fact, it could make it worse. Walks in relief situations are costly, and McCullers hasn’t shown the consistency to trust in high-leverage spots. A piggyback role, where he follows another starter, feels like a more realistic path for him at this point.
Rotation outlook with Luis Garcia
Luis Garcia could return as soon as Monday if elevated from Sugar Land, but Houston may not need to force a sixth starter into the mix.
Luis Garcia is certainly an obvious candidate to start on Monday, which is also the first day rosters expand from 26 to 28 - https://t.co/xBPB4xaog9 https://t.co/k2oSymidc0
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 28, 2025
If Spencer Arrighetti can build on his last outing and Cristian Javier starts trending upward, the rotation has enough stability to carry Houston through September. Garcia’s return would be a bonus — not a necessity — for a staff that looks like it may finally be rounding into form.
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