EVERY-THING SPORTS
All the reasons Houston Astros are poised for another World Series run
Jul 6, 2022, 2:52 pm
EVERY-THING SPORTS
There are certain events in one's life in which you'll remember where you were and what you were doing when they happened. Whether good or bad, those memories are etched in your brain. Finding out you're going to be a parent for the first time, your first kiss, getting that new car, and when the Astros won the 2017 World Series. That euphoric feeling of watching the team you've rooted for finally win the ultimate prize was everything, especially coming off years of losing 90-100 games or so every year. It was really late and the whole house was sleep. I had to contain my excitement and celebrate as quietly as possible.
Fast-forward five years, and we could experience that euphoria all over again. As of this writing, they are 13.5 games up in the AL West and only 4.5 games behind their sons (aka the Yankees) for best record in the AL and MLB overall. They own the third best run differential in MLB, have an AL MVP candidate in Yordan Alvarez, an AL Cy Young candidate in Justin Verlander, and they may sure up some deficiencies by the trade deadline. Even if they don't make another move, this team can compete with anyone.
Go back a few months and see how many people truly thought this was possible. I myself thought they'd compete, make the playoffs, but sputter out. I wasn't confident in the pitching staff being what it is and wasn't sure the lineup would round into shape. Add that with the fact that they lost one of the guys who was a leader in the clubhouse (and one of their best players in Carlos Correa) and replaced him with a rookie, you wouldn't have been wrong to think they may even miss the playoffs or barely make the wildcard game.
Good thing is this team is resilient. Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel were struggling to start this season and are rounding into shape. Jeremy Peña, Correa's replacement, has been a revelation. There isn't much difference in their offensive numbers. In fact, there are several categories Peña is actually better at than Correa. His defense isn't that far off from Correa's either. People can say what they want about Machete, but that's OUR catcher and I love him! He can hit below the Mendoza Line all he wants when he plays that kind of defense and handles the staff the way he does. Centerfield is another area some think needs improvement. I think they're fine. Could the CF's hit and field better? Yes, but that could go for a number of guys. It isn't as weak of a spot as we think.
This team continues to show why they're a modern-day dynasty. Five straight ALCS appearances, three World Series appearances, and one title over the last five years is pretty damn good. Factor in all the free agent losses, sign stealing scandal, Covid, and everything else they've dealt with and overcome, I'll die on that hill of calling them a modern-day dynasty. A World Series win with this group would solidify that claim, as well as prove the haters wrong. Poetic justice in my eyes looks like this: beating the Yankees in the ALCS, then beating the Dodgers in the World Series just like they did in 2017. Then we can hit them with this gem.
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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