THE PALLILOG
Word to the wise, trust your instincts about Astros
May 25, 2023, 4:35 pm
The Astros need to get the offense going. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
Overreactions to things both good and bad are part of the fun of being a fan, but don’t lend themselves to the most insightful of discourse. There was some excessive fanboy and fangirl gloating over how the “Astros were back!” after they swept their last homestand. The Astros did a fine job of handling the business at hand but taking three from the not good Cubs and three from the almost inconceivably awful A’s did not mean the Astros were back in juggernaut mode. But then they hammered Brewers’ ace starter Corbin Burnes Monday night. Eight straight wins! Sweep the Brewers then this weekend the Astros could take aim at the franchise record 12 game winning streak! The Astros haven’t scored since Monday night.
Overall the Astros are fine entering the weekend at 28-21. Thank goodness for a pitching staff which has the best earned run average in Major League Baseball, because the Astro offense remains impotent too often. There are only five American League teams scoring fewer runs per game than the Astros (White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Athletics, Guardians). They are the five worst teams in the American League. The Astros’ back-to-back shutout losses Tuesday and Wednesday in Milwaukee coupled with a pair of Texas Rangers’ wins in Pittsburgh have the Astros back to three games off the lead in the AL West.
This while Martin Maldonado is actually having a strong May offensively, batting .298 with an OPS of .845. No misprint there. Alas, it’s not as if as he approaches his 37th birthday Maldy has figured out things and projects as a strong offensive player going forward. Bad hitters have good stretches just as good hitters have bad stretches. But credit is due where credit is due.
So, when will Alex Bregman be due some credit? He certainly has earned very little so far this season. Overall, Maldonado’s numbers are still weak with the batting average .216, OPS .637. Forget Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, Maldonado’s OPS is now closer to Bregman’s than Bregman’s is to Jake Meyers’s. Bregman has a history of slow starts. Monday is Memorial Day. We’re past slow start. “Breggy Bomb” carries a different connotation right now. The good news is that with just over two-thirds of the season remaining there is still ample time to take off. Last season as late as June 16 Bregman’s OPS was under .700. The rest of the season he posted a .902. Bregman has a very discerning eye at the plate. He draws lots of walks and strikes out very infrequently by 2023 MLB standards. The walks have been his saving grace this year.
Even with Bregman’s batting average at a puny .219, his on-base percentage is .326. That OBP is only three points lower than Mauricio Dubon’s despite Dubon’s average being 78 points higher. Still, Bregman may be too discerning at the plate. It could be more perception than reality but Bregman seems to be complaining incorrectly about strike calls against him pretty frequently this year. He has played in every game yet is on pace for a meager total of 43 extra base hits. In 2019 Bregman hit 41 home runs among his 80 extra base hits. In 2018 he had 51 doubles among 83 extra base hits.
Then there’s Jose Abreu who continues to show zero signs of getting it going. Zero. Like his home run total. From Jeff Bagwell as he subbed for Geoff Blum on the Astros’ telecasts from Milwaukee: “Abreu cares.” Gee, that’s comforting. How pathetic would Abreu’s numbers be if he didn’t care?
Jeremy Pena is three for his last 24. He last drew a walk May 12 and had only drawn one before that this month. He last homered April 29. Pena’s sophomore campaign is disappointing to date. At the start of the season any notion that Mauricio Dubon would be having the Astros’ best season among their infielders heading into Memorial Day Weekend would have justified a drug test. Yet here we are.
Bring on the A's!
For the second consecutive weekend the Astros have the opportunity to whip up on the A’s. Oakland woke up Thursday morning with 10 wins and 41 losses. The A's have won consecutive games once. If you and several thousand of your good friends can catch flights to Oakland, tickets are available. Announced attendance for the A’s last home game, 4159. And that was the biggest “crowd” of a three game series following gates of 2064 and 3261.
The Astros come home for three vs. the Minnesota Twins starting with a holiday matinee Monday. Hope you didn’t buy tickets to watch Carlos Correa play. Correa has left foot problems, a muscle strain and plantar fasciitis. That is not the leg that caused Correa to flunk Giants and Mets physicals and forced him to “settle” for six years and 200 million dollars with Minnesota. Correa has not been good this season, batting .213 with a .699 OPS.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
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