THE PALLILOG
Word to the wise, trust your instincts about Astros
May 25, 2023, 4:35 pm
The Astros need to get the offense going. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
Overreactions to things both good and bad are part of the fun of being a fan, but don’t lend themselves to the most insightful of discourse. There was some excessive fanboy and fangirl gloating over how the “Astros were back!” after they swept their last homestand. The Astros did a fine job of handling the business at hand but taking three from the not good Cubs and three from the almost inconceivably awful A’s did not mean the Astros were back in juggernaut mode. But then they hammered Brewers’ ace starter Corbin Burnes Monday night. Eight straight wins! Sweep the Brewers then this weekend the Astros could take aim at the franchise record 12 game winning streak! The Astros haven’t scored since Monday night.
Overall the Astros are fine entering the weekend at 28-21. Thank goodness for a pitching staff which has the best earned run average in Major League Baseball, because the Astro offense remains impotent too often. There are only five American League teams scoring fewer runs per game than the Astros (White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Athletics, Guardians). They are the five worst teams in the American League. The Astros’ back-to-back shutout losses Tuesday and Wednesday in Milwaukee coupled with a pair of Texas Rangers’ wins in Pittsburgh have the Astros back to three games off the lead in the AL West.
This while Martin Maldonado is actually having a strong May offensively, batting .298 with an OPS of .845. No misprint there. Alas, it’s not as if as he approaches his 37th birthday Maldy has figured out things and projects as a strong offensive player going forward. Bad hitters have good stretches just as good hitters have bad stretches. But credit is due where credit is due.
So, when will Alex Bregman be due some credit? He certainly has earned very little so far this season. Overall, Maldonado’s numbers are still weak with the batting average .216, OPS .637. Forget Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, Maldonado’s OPS is now closer to Bregman’s than Bregman’s is to Jake Meyers’s. Bregman has a history of slow starts. Monday is Memorial Day. We’re past slow start. “Breggy Bomb” carries a different connotation right now. The good news is that with just over two-thirds of the season remaining there is still ample time to take off. Last season as late as June 16 Bregman’s OPS was under .700. The rest of the season he posted a .902. Bregman has a very discerning eye at the plate. He draws lots of walks and strikes out very infrequently by 2023 MLB standards. The walks have been his saving grace this year.
Even with Bregman’s batting average at a puny .219, his on-base percentage is .326. That OBP is only three points lower than Mauricio Dubon’s despite Dubon’s average being 78 points higher. Still, Bregman may be too discerning at the plate. It could be more perception than reality but Bregman seems to be complaining incorrectly about strike calls against him pretty frequently this year. He has played in every game yet is on pace for a meager total of 43 extra base hits. In 2019 Bregman hit 41 home runs among his 80 extra base hits. In 2018 he had 51 doubles among 83 extra base hits.
Then there’s Jose Abreu who continues to show zero signs of getting it going. Zero. Like his home run total. From Jeff Bagwell as he subbed for Geoff Blum on the Astros’ telecasts from Milwaukee: “Abreu cares.” Gee, that’s comforting. How pathetic would Abreu’s numbers be if he didn’t care?
Jeremy Pena is three for his last 24. He last drew a walk May 12 and had only drawn one before that this month. He last homered April 29. Pena’s sophomore campaign is disappointing to date. At the start of the season any notion that Mauricio Dubon would be having the Astros’ best season among their infielders heading into Memorial Day Weekend would have justified a drug test. Yet here we are.
Bring on the A's!
For the second consecutive weekend the Astros have the opportunity to whip up on the A’s. Oakland woke up Thursday morning with 10 wins and 41 losses. The A's have won consecutive games once. If you and several thousand of your good friends can catch flights to Oakland, tickets are available. Announced attendance for the A’s last home game, 4159. And that was the biggest “crowd” of a three game series following gates of 2064 and 3261.
The Astros come home for three vs. the Minnesota Twins starting with a holiday matinee Monday. Hope you didn’t buy tickets to watch Carlos Correa play. Correa has left foot problems, a muscle strain and plantar fasciitis. That is not the leg that caused Correa to flunk Giants and Mets physicals and forced him to “settle” for six years and 200 million dollars with Minnesota. Correa has not been good this season, batting .213 with a .699 OPS.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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