How Astros league-leading offensive outburst has definitely not gone as planned
GOING DEEP
19 September 2023
It all comes down to this for the Houston Astros. With just four series left in the regular season, the Astros now have the firepower to win games with their bats regularly. Now if they can just get the pitching to give them enough to get by.
The Astros have been in the Top 10 in team ERA all season, but they've been middle of the pack when it comes to the offense. Specifically, their team OPS. But how quickly things can change.
Many Astros fans would be surprised to learn that the Astros are No. 1 overall in team OPS (.880) over the last 30 days. They're also No.1 over the last 15 days. How about slugging? No. 1 overall (.514) over the last 15 days.
It took the club a while to get things going, dealing with injuries to Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve for big chunks of the year. But with their full assortment of weapons available to them, no team is swinging the bats better than the 'Stros currently.
So why aren't they winning more games? It all comes down to consistency. When the Astros explode for 12 runs one day, and follow that up with only 2 runs the following day, they're likely going 1-1, despite scoring 14 runs over two games.
And if you have been watching this season, you know what we're talking about. When you see the Astros drop 10 runs on an opponent, you start wishing for them to save some runs for the next game. Because you've seen how this usually plays out for this year's team.
The other factor that's holding the Astros back is the pitching over the last month. While the team ERA has been Top 10 all year, they've fallen to 20th over the last 30 days. So as the offense climbs to the best in the majors, the pitching falls off to the bottom half of the league.
Monday's loss to the Orioles is a great example. The offense comes storming back and takes a 7-5 lead, only for Ryan Pressly to blow the save, losing 8-7.
Be sure to check out the video above as we discuss Houston's ascending offense, and try to figure out how they can get the pitching back on track.
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How Astros surging ace raises key questions about Houston's short, long-term rotation moves
Jul 25, 2024, 5:39 pm
It's no secret to Astros fans that the ascension of Hunter Brown is one of the primary reasons the team was able to rebound from a disastrous start to the season.
Astros manager Joe Espada has seen enough from Brown to start throwing around the word “ace” when talking about him.
Joe Espada on Hunter Brown: "He's having that ace feeling to him. We are expecting him to go out there and deliver what he just did. We knew all along that is in him and now he's starting to turn the corner. He's starting to have that swag where he knows 'my team needs a win.'"
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) July 24, 2024
And it appears the biggest key to Brown's turnaround was mixing in a two-seam fastball to keep right-handed hitters honest. Brown needed a pitch that could command the inside of the plate, which allows his other pitches to be more effective.
We learned just recently, from Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Alex Bregman was the one that suggested the addition of the two-seam fastball to Brown's arsenal.
Come to find out, Bregman often shares advice on how to attack hitters. Or he'll ask pitchers why they chose a certain pitch in a specific situation.
This just goes to show that veteran leadership can make a big difference. Especially on a team with so many young pitchers and catchers. Bregman was able to help Brown when no pitching coach could.
For Brown, this small tweak could be the catalyst that changes the course of his career. And the Astros season for that matter.
However, some will say the difference in Brown is more about confidence than anything else. But confidence only builds after repeated success. Nobody knows where Brown would be without the two-seam fastball.
Looking ahead
If the Astros do make the playoffs, where will Espada slot Brown in the playoff rotation? Framber Valdez has the playoff experience, so he'll probably be penciled in as the number one starter.
Justin Verlander (neck) still isn't facing live batters, so it's hard to count on him. Ronel Blanco has been an All-Star level pitcher this season, but he doesn't have any experience pitching playoff games for the Astros.
So it wouldn't be surprising at all if Brown is the team's number two starter. In all likelihood, whoever is pitching the best at the end of the season may get the nod. But it's fun to discuss in the meantime.
Finally, how does Hunter Brown's arrival impact the Astros' plans at the trade deadline? And how could that affect Justin Verlander's future with the club?
Be sure to check out the video above for the full conversation!
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
