How stage is set for Astros to totally retool offense during offseason
BOLSTER THE BATS!
07 October
BOLSTER THE BATS!
The Houston Astros enter this offseason with more holes to fill than in recent memory. Getting swept in the Wild Card round should definitely have the front office looking for creative ways to improve the team without blowing past the second tax threshold.
As we project next year's roster, one thing appears to be certain, the offense needs more attention than the pitching. The starting pitching should be in good shape with Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arreghetti returning. Plus, Luis Garcia is expected to return after recovering from Tommy John surgery. We'll see about Lance McCullers…
The offense, however, is another story. Even with Alex Bregman in the lineup, Houston was only able to score one run in the first 15 innings of the Wild Card Series against Detroit.
There's no way around it, the Astros must add another bat even if Bregman returns. If the Astros are looking to upgrade at first base, there are several names to consider. Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana, and Pete Alonzo just to name a few.
However, many of these players do have some red flags. Age being the biggest one. Considering how the Jose Abreu signing turned out, the Astros might be best served avoiding players in their mid-thirties.
Of course, adding a younger player like Pete Alonzo (age 29) will cost significantly more money.
Should the Astros decide to stand pat at first base, they could continue using a platoon of Jon Singleton, Yainer Diaz, and Victor Caratini.
Since the Astros' payroll is bloated from the Jose Abreu, Lance McCullers Jr, and Rafael Montero contracts, shedding some cash through trades might be a good idea.
When looking at the projected arbitration numbers for the 2025 season, here's what really stands out. Jeremy Pena and Mauricio Dubon are both expected to make over $4 million next season. Jake Meyers is projected to make over $2 million, and Chas McCormick will likely command over $3 million.
Trading Dubon and Meyers could free up over $6 million that could be used to address other needs on the team.
Some other options to consider
The Astros might have a problem that goes much deeper than personnel. As a team, these hitters don't see enough pitches. They swing early and often and don't walk enough. Even Bregman has seen a steep decline in walks. Bregman walked 44 times this year, way down from the 92 free passes he recorded in 2023.
When players like Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker swing at the first pitch, it eliminates the possibility of picking up a walk when a pitcher misses in a deep count. Taking all the pressure off the pitcher. It also means less opportunities for a pitch to be hung in the strike zone and punished.
Plus, this approach leads to 5 pitch innings like we saw in the Tigers series, which allows quality pitchers to go deep in games with a low pitch count.
Altuve's stance on Bregman
This is the first time we've heard Altuve speak about a player's contract in this manner. Altuve essentially said the team has to do whatever it takes to retain Breggy.
But we have to keep in mind, Altuve's already signed his long-term deal, and they both share the same agent in Scott Boras.
Be sure to watch the video above for the full discussion!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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