SERIES PREVIEW
Astros aim for pivotal victories in showdown with Pirates
Jul 29, 2024, 3:18 pm
SERIES PREVIEW
Pittsburgh Pirates (53-52, third in the NL Central) vs. Houston Astros (55-50, first in the AL West)
Houston; Monday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
PITCHING PROBABLES: Pirates: Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.93 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 97 strikeouts); Astros: Jake Bloss (0-1, 6.94 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 11 strikeouts)
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK: LINE Pirates -153, Astros +129; over/under is 7 1/2 runs
BOTTOM LINE: The Houston Astros host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday to begin a three-game series.
Houston has a 55-50 record overall and a 30-22 record at home. The Astros have a 43-26 record in games when they record eight or more hits.
Pittsburgh has a 53-52 record overall and a 27-26 record on the road. The Pirates have the sixth-ranked team ERA in the NL at 3.83.
Monday’s game is the first time these teams meet this season.
TOP PERFORMERS: Yordan Alvarez has 25 doubles, two triples, 20 home runs and 54 RBI for the Astros. Jeremy Pena is 14-for-38 with two doubles, two home runs and six RBI over the last 10 games.
Connor Joe has 18 doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 31 RBI for the Pirates. Oneil Cruz is 13-for-40 with five doubles, a triple and three home runs over the last 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Astros: 5-5, .248 batting average, 3.83 ERA, even run differential
Pirates: 6-4, .252 batting average, 3.54 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs
INJURIES: Astros: Justin Verlander: 15-Day IL (neck), Cristian Javier: 60-Day IL (forearm), Kyle Tucker: 10-Day IL (shin), Jose Urquidy: 60-Day IL (forearm), Oliver Ortega: 60-Day IL (elbow), Bennett Sousa: 60-Day IL (shoulder), Penn Murfee: 60-Day IL (elbow), Luis Garcia: 60-Day IL (elbow), Lance McCullers Jr.: 60-Day IL (elbow), Kendall Graveman: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Pirates: Nick Gonzales: 10-Day IL (undisclosed), Bailey Falter: 15-Day IL (arm), Daulton Jefferies: 15-Day IL (elbow), Jared Jones: 15-Day IL (lat), Ryan Borucki: 60-Day IL (tricep), Dauri Moreta: 60-Day IL (elbow), Endy Rodriguez: 60-Day IL (elbow), Johan Oviedo: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Here's the Astros lineup against Paul Skenes:
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If you were hoping the Houston Astros could survive their injury avalanche without reinforcements, this past week should shake that optimism. Getting swept at home by the lowly Oakland Athletics isn’t just an embarrassment, it’s a warning flare straight to GM Dana Brown’s office.
Yes, this was a wake-up call. Houston’s offense is simply too depleted to keep treading water while waiting for reinforcements. The moment Isaac Paredes went down with a hamstring injury, the offense unraveled, and the numbers back it up. In the seven days since losing their best power bat, the Astros rank 28th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 25th in OPS and 20th in batting average. That’s a drastic drop-off for a team that ranks second in batting average and 12th in OPS on the season.
And it’s not just Paredes’ absence. Cam Smith, one of the Astros' brightest early-season surprises, is stuck in a deep slump. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .087. Stretch that to 15 games, and he’s at .140 with a .175 slugging percentage. That's not a cold streak — that’s a free fall. Perhaps giving him a regular spot in the batting order might provide more stability for the rookie.
Help is on the way!
So is there any hope left? In theory, yes. The pitching cavalry is on the way. Spencer Arrighetti has one more rehab start before returning. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are expected to follow soon after. JP France isn’t far off either. On paper, that could give Houston the rotation depth needed for another deep October push.
But theory only takes you so far. Injuries continue to mount. Just days after praising the rotation’s resilience, Brendan Rodgers showed up with elbow inflammation and Lance McCullers Jr. landed on the IL with blister issues. If the reinforcements don’t all arrive — and perform — without setbacks, the Astros could be in real trouble.
Yordan Alvarez’s situation adds another layer of anxiety. Dana Brown might be tempted to rush him back at less than full strength, and while 75% of Yordan may still be better than some of the current options, it’s a risky bet. One wrong step could lead to a setback that erases any hope of getting him at all when it matters most.
So no, Brown can’t afford to sit on his hands at the deadline. In fact, this may be the most pivotal deadline of his tenure. With Framber Valdez likely in his final stretch in Houston and the rotation still featuring two frontline arms, the window is now.
Whether or not Brown is allowed to spend aggressively could ultimately depend on Jim Crane’s willingness to cross the luxury tax line. If he greenlights an aggressive push, the Astros have enough upside, even with the injuries, to go for it. But a quiet deadline may signal that the front office sees this team as a year away.
Bottom line: if the Astros truly believe they can get Yordan and several arms back in time for a playoff push, now is the moment to act. Because after a weekend like this, it’s clear the current version of the roster isn’t enough. We'll get our answer by Thursday's deadline.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional LIVE episode this Thursday!
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