We’re not yet to mid-August but barring a stunning turn the American League West race is down to a Houston-Seattle battle. The Astros basically administered last rites to the Texas Rangers’ World Series title defense and serious playoff hopes by taking the last two games of their series in Arlington. With them the Astros take the season series 7-6, so the Rangers are five and a half games back of the Astros and lose the tiebreaker. Oh yeah, and the Silver Boot stays in Houston. Yippee! There was nothing flukish about the Rangers winning it all last year, but of their 10 batters back from 2023 with at least 100 at bats this season, Josh Smith is the only one not having a worse season than a year ago. The majority of them are substantially worse. While in the Metroplex it’s on to preparing for more playoff disappointment from the Cowboys, the Astros need for the Rangers to not mail in September. The Rangers have seven games left with the Mariners.

If the Yankees-Orioles AL East race is a slugfest, the Astros-Mariners pursuit of the AL West title is a pillow fight. The East victor probably finishes with 95 or more wins. It’s possible that 85 is how the West is won. It’s approaching a certainty that the West winner will have the worst record of the AL division champs and have to survive the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Both the Rangers and Diamondbacks went from Wild Card to World Series last year.

It's probably division title or bust for the Astros. A Wild Card is certainly feasible but the outlook is not great. Forget reeling in the Orioles/Yankees runner-up. The Astros are four and a half games behind the Twins and lose the tiebreaker to them. They sit four games back of the Royals. The Astros lose the tiebreaker to Kansas City unless they sweep the four-game series from them at Minute Maid Park three weekends from now. The Astros trail the Red Sox by two and a half games going into this weekend’s three-game matchup in Boston with three more meetings coming in Houston starting a week from Monday. If the Astros play well enough to overtake at least two of the three among the Twins, Royals, and Red Sox, odds are they play well enough to finish ahead of the Mariners and win the AL West. The Astros have to sweep the three-game set at MMP vs. Seattle the final week of the regular season or the Mariners take that tiebreaker.

Wicked exciting series ahead!

While the Mariners are home versus the Mets this weekend, the Astros are at fabulous Fenway Park. It’s really only fabulous because it is Fenway Park. The Green Monster is defining and fantastic, but as a ballpark overall Fenway has its drawbacks because of its limited footprint. The concourses are cramped and dingy, a number of seats are obstructed, others are angled poorly. Still, it’s a top five Major League Baseball attendance experience (the Cubs’ Wrigley Field, the Giants’ Oracle Park, the Padres’ Petco Park, and the Pirates’ PNC Park my other four), with the gameday environment in the Back Bay unsurpassed when the BoSox are good. For the Astros, a Fenway weekend is only a good time if they win the series.

Friday’s opener matches starting pitchers who have basically come out of nowhere this season and been tremendous, though both have shown decline in recent weeks. It’s Ronel Blanco for the Astros, without whom the Astros’ playoff hopes might be slim. While Blanco’s record is 9-6, the Astros have won 14 of his 21 starts. But his season workload may be taking its toll. Lasting more than an inning and a third against the Red Sox will take Blanco to a new professional season-high in innings pitched with more than a month and a half still remaining in the regular season. Blanco has failed to last six innings in each of his last three starts. Over his last seven starts his earned run average is 4.35, not brutal at all but the slippage is there. That Blanco’s ERA overall is at a season-worst 2.98 tells you how outstanding he has been. Does he have a finishing kick? The Astros sure need it.

Meanwhile, Boston’s Tanner Houck was a first time All-Star this year after last season posting a 5.01 ERA. Houck has already shattered his prior career-high for innings pitched. Over three starts since the All-Star break Houck has been lit up for 13 earned runs on 23 hits in 17 innings (6.88 ERA). His control has fallen off sharply, often a sign of a tiring pitcher. One of the negatives about the Astros’ offense is the lineup having too many free swingers who fail to work counts and work walks. Alex Bregman is probably the Astros' most disciplined hitter. Bregman's walk rate is down 45 percent from 2023. He last drew one July 28. Jose Altuve's walk rate is down more than 35 percent. Only the Royals, White Sox, and Marlins have drawn fewer free passes. The Royals have Most Valuable Player candidate Bobby Witt Jr. making up for a lot of it. The White Sox and Marlins lineups are jokes.

No buyer's remorse so far

It's two Astro outings, two solid showings for Yusei Kikuchi, the trade acquisition so many lambasted to an absurd extent. Two starts don’t define the deal’s ultimate success or failure but so far so good. Meanwhile, Joey Loperfido is four for 22 with 11 strikeouts in his first five games with the Blue Jays. Dana Brown traded Joey Loperfido, not Joe DiMaggio.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.