What's standing between Astros and a three-peat, no one saw coming
STONE COLD 'STROS
13 September 2023
STONE COLD 'STROS
If the Astros are able to finish the deal and win the division for the third straight year, one of the biggest questions about the postseason is which pitchers deserve to be starters.
While Dusty Baker loves his veteran players, the numbers don't lie. JP France has earned his spot in the playoff rotation behind Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
The sample size is just too large with Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown at this point. They haven't consistently pitched well in several months. And while one of these guys will likely be one of the team's starters in the postseason, they can't pitch in front of France based on performance.
Plus, with the Astros lead in the division down to 1 game, Dusty needs to put his best offense in the lineup when Brown and Javier are pitching, so the team has a chance to win the game. Both pitchers are lucky to get through 4 innings while only giving up 4 runs at this point.
Let's look at the numbers. Javier has an ERA of 6.21 over his last 7 games, and Brown has given up a WHOPPING 24 earned runs in his last 30 innings. Yes, you read that correctly.
We have all accepted that Martin Maldonado is going to catch Framber and Verlander, but Yainer Diaz and the Astros “Death Lineup” must be employed when Javier and Brown start.
Otherwise, the team is not being given its best chance to win. And we don't want to hear from Dusty about how Maldy can get Hunter Brown straightened out by calling the pitches. How did that work out in his last start? He gave up 6 runs in 4.2 innings and lost to the Padres.
And after two losses to the A's with Framber and JV on the mound, the team's margin for error is almost nonexistent at this point. Winning the division for the third consecutive season now appears to be in jeopardy.
The team has to approach these games knowing they're going to have to score more than 5 runs to win with Javier and Brown on the mound.
Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down.
Watch Stone Cold 'Stros every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel.
And listen to ESPN 97.5 and 92.5 FM for Houston's best sports talk
With the Texans coming off their sorry second half showing at the Jets and the Detroit Lions coming to town riding a six-game winning streak, it has the look of pretender vs. contender Sunday night at NRG Stadium. The 7-1 Lions are obviously the better team but that is no guarantee that they will be the better team Sunday night. The point spread is only three and a half points. It’s not as if a Texans victory would be a stunning upset. The Texans knocking off the Lions would not balance the books for the Detroit Tigers having bounced the Astros from the baseball playoffs last month, but it would be one of the better regular season wins in Texans’ history.
If not upsetting, it certainly isn’t uplifting that Nick Caserio made zero consequential moves before Tuesday’s trade deadline. If you’re a Texans fan it is upsetting, though shouldn’t be infuriating. Claiming off waivers an offensive lineman (Zachary Thomas) who was getting about 10 snaps per game on one of the very worst o-lines in the NFL (New England Patriots) does not qualify as consequential. It’s not as if Caserio could snap his fingers and make a great deal for a legitimate starting left guard. But his job is to build the roster and he made nothing that qualifies as even a modest upgrade to the most glaring weakness on the team. Play can’t be much worse than what Kenyon Green was providing at left guard before his season-ending injury. But Kenyon was only playing because the staff considered him better than Kendrick Green and Jarrett Patterson. Or, Kenyon was getting unwarranted extended run to prove conclusively he was a waste of a first-round draft pick in 2022.
If Caserio believes the Texans are a bonafide threat in the AFC, adding nothing is a clear fail. Any gurgling about “we believe in our guys” as justification for inertia should be scoffed at, unless Caserio or anyone else believes the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, and Ravens didn’t “believe in their guys.” All those AFC contenders made clear upgrades. This is not talking about the Texans trading high draft choices. Last week the Minnesota Vikings acquired Jacksonville starting left tackle Cam Robinson for a conditional fifth-round pick.
Tale of the tape
As for Sunday, NBC has to be hoping the Texans being 4-0 this season at NRG Stadium bodes well for them, at least giving the Lions a good game. The Texans are with the Chiefs, Bills, Commanders (!), and Bears (!!) as unbeaten at home. On the other hand, the Lions are a perfect 4-0 on the road. The Chiefs and Falcons have also yet to lose on the road.
While hoping that Aidan Hutchinson makes a complete recovery from his multiple leg fractures, the Lions’ beastly defensive end’s absence sure helps the cause of the Texans’ feeble pass-protecting offensive line. Hutchinson was the early leader for Defensive Player of the Year with seven and a half sacks in five games before he went down. The Lions traded for DE Za’Darius Smith from Cleveland this week. It’s unclear whether Smith makes his Detroit debut chasing C.J. Stroud.
The Texans have topped 30 points in a game once this season. The Lions average an NFL-leading 32.3 per game, topping 30 in four of their last five games, only coming up short last Sunday in a rain-soaked 24-14 win at Green Bay. Over those five games quarterback Jared Goff has completed an absurd 83.8 percent of his passes, with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season Goff is completing 74.9 percent. If he maintains that number, he’ll break the NFL record of 74.4 that Drew Brees posted with the Saints in 2018.
Third time's the charm?
Only once in their history have the Texans managed three consecutive winning seasons. They went 9-7 in each of them under Bill O’Brien in 2014, ‘15, and ‘16. They did so with three different quarterbacks leading them in passing yardage: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiler (really!). The Lions are two victories from securing their first back-to-back-to-back winning seasons since 1993, ‘94, and ‘95. That was the heyday of the great Barry Sanders at running back. Three different quarterbacks led the Lions in passing yardage those years. You’re probably fibbing if you claimed “I know them: Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, and Scott Mitchell.”
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
_______________
Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Tickets are $75 for VIP and $50 for General Admission. For a limited time, we’re giving you $10 off; use code SPORTSMAP at checkout. Get your tickets now!