What's standing between Astros and a three-peat, no one saw coming
STONE COLD 'STROS
13 September 2023
STONE COLD 'STROS
If the Astros are able to finish the deal and win the division for the third straight year, one of the biggest questions about the postseason is which pitchers deserve to be starters.
While Dusty Baker loves his veteran players, the numbers don't lie. JP France has earned his spot in the playoff rotation behind Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
The sample size is just too large with Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown at this point. They haven't consistently pitched well in several months. And while one of these guys will likely be one of the team's starters in the postseason, they can't pitch in front of France based on performance.
Plus, with the Astros lead in the division down to 1 game, Dusty needs to put his best offense in the lineup when Brown and Javier are pitching, so the team has a chance to win the game. Both pitchers are lucky to get through 4 innings while only giving up 4 runs at this point.
Let's look at the numbers. Javier has an ERA of 6.21 over his last 7 games, and Brown has given up a WHOPPING 24 earned runs in his last 30 innings. Yes, you read that correctly.
We have all accepted that Martin Maldonado is going to catch Framber and Verlander, but Yainer Diaz and the Astros “Death Lineup” must be employed when Javier and Brown start.
Otherwise, the team is not being given its best chance to win. And we don't want to hear from Dusty about how Maldy can get Hunter Brown straightened out by calling the pitches. How did that work out in his last start? He gave up 6 runs in 4.2 innings and lost to the Padres.
And after two losses to the A's with Framber and JV on the mound, the team's margin for error is almost nonexistent at this point. Winning the division for the third consecutive season now appears to be in jeopardy.
The team has to approach these games knowing they're going to have to score more than 5 runs to win with Javier and Brown on the mound.
Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down.
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It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this time could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.
The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,
OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.
Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.
Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.
Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.
What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.
Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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