What's standing between Astros and a three-peat, no one saw coming
STONE COLD 'STROS
13 September 2023
STONE COLD 'STROS
If the Astros are able to finish the deal and win the division for the third straight year, one of the biggest questions about the postseason is which pitchers deserve to be starters.
While Dusty Baker loves his veteran players, the numbers don't lie. JP France has earned his spot in the playoff rotation behind Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
The sample size is just too large with Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown at this point. They haven't consistently pitched well in several months. And while one of these guys will likely be one of the team's starters in the postseason, they can't pitch in front of France based on performance.
Plus, with the Astros lead in the division down to 1 game, Dusty needs to put his best offense in the lineup when Brown and Javier are pitching, so the team has a chance to win the game. Both pitchers are lucky to get through 4 innings while only giving up 4 runs at this point.
Let's look at the numbers. Javier has an ERA of 6.21 over his last 7 games, and Brown has given up a WHOPPING 24 earned runs in his last 30 innings. Yes, you read that correctly.
We have all accepted that Martin Maldonado is going to catch Framber and Verlander, but Yainer Diaz and the Astros “Death Lineup” must be employed when Javier and Brown start.
Otherwise, the team is not being given its best chance to win. And we don't want to hear from Dusty about how Maldy can get Hunter Brown straightened out by calling the pitches. How did that work out in his last start? He gave up 6 runs in 4.2 innings and lost to the Padres.
And after two losses to the A's with Framber and JV on the mound, the team's margin for error is almost nonexistent at this point. Winning the division for the third consecutive season now appears to be in jeopardy.
The team has to approach these games knowing they're going to have to score more than 5 runs to win with Javier and Brown on the mound.
Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down.
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One of the nuggets that came out of Nick Caserio's press conference this week, was his thoughts on the job Bobby Slowik has done as an offensive coordinator. When asked if the team has considered sharing the offensive play calling, Caseiro responded with an emphatic, “absolutely not.”
Caserio went on to praise the job Slowik has done this year, and to say the team's struggles in the second half this season is due to execution.
This stance is consistent with what we've heard from Texans insiders that believe Slowik will be back next season. As much as many Texans fans believe a change at OC could help CJ Stroud, who's shown regression this year, it doesn't appear Slowik is going anywhere.
To be fair, most teams aren't looking to replace their coordinators when they're leading their division and marching toward the postseason for the second straight year.
Number crunching
When comparing Stroud's stats to last season, there is a clear dropoff in 2024. But a lot of that has to do with the addition of Joe Mixon, especially when it comes to touchdowns.
Mixon is third in the NFL with 11 rushing TDs, while Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary only combined for 6 over the entire 2023 season. One could argue the passing offense has regressed, but one could also argue the offense overall is more balanced.
Stroud is still Top 5 in passing yards, heading into this week's games. And even if we account for the bye week, Stroud will still be Top 10 after this week's slate of games.
The most concerning number to keep an eye on is sacks. Only one QB has been sacked more than Stroud, who's been sacked 41 times. CJ's protection has gotten better since Juice Scruggs was moved to guard, and Jarrett Patterson was inserted at center.
If Stroud starts getting hit again at a high level, that may be the one factor that could make the front office rethink their plans at coordinator. However, if the Texans do make a change, we expect them to address their o-line coach before any changes at OC.
Be sure to watch the video above for our full breakdown of the Texans offense, the coaching staff, and our thoughts on how the Azeez Al-Shaair suspension will impact the team.