UNCHARTED TERRITORY
How the Astros upcoming stretch puts them in a strange, unfamiliar place
Jun 29, 2023, 5:54 pm
UNCHARTED TERRITORY
Thomas Paine was talking about America’s fight for freedom from England in 1776 when he wrote, “These are the times that try men’s souls.”
He had no way of knowing that the Houston Astros would be six games behind the Texas Rangers and out of the playoff picture as we approach Independence Day 2023.
Yes, these are trying times for Astros fans. But for all the sniping and griping about the Astros play, their casualty list of injuries and manager Dusty Baker’s mystifying lineup decisions …
At least Astros owner Jim Crane isn’t threatening to unload underperforming, overpaid Astros players, even offering to pay other teams to take them off the Astros books – like New York Mets owner Steve Cohen pushed the panic button this week.
Steve Cohen says that if the Mets don't improve by the Aug. 1 trade deadline, they certainly won't be looking to add pieces, and instead would at least explore the possibility of trading away players.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) June 28, 2023
Wouldn’t it be something if the Mets called the Astros and said, “You want Justin Verlander back? We’ll pay the return postage.” The Mets signed JV to a two-year deal worth $86 million. He’s 2-4 at the halfway mark of the season. And the Mets are 36-44, 17 games out of first in the NL East and fading fast despite the highest payroll in baseball history.
OK, the Astros aren’t the Mets, but Houston fans are frustrated for sure, and it’s open season on questioning manager Dusty Baker’s stewardship of the team.
Why is Martin Maldonado batting in the eighth inning with two on, two out and the Astros trailing by a run? What is Astros reliever Rafael Montero doing on the mound in a close game? And, uh, what is a Bligh Madris?
The Astros are in a strange place, looking up at the Rangers, and the Angels closer than they appear in their rearview mirror.
It’s been a while since the Astros faced a critical, approaching must-win, stretch of games this early in the season. But that’s coming right up: a four-game set starting Friday against the Rangers in Arlington, followed by two against the Rockies and four with the Mariners at Minute Maid Park. We’ll know better if Astros fans can start making fall travel plans by the All-Star Game on July 11.
Even the All-Star Game will look different for Astros fans. Astros players won’t have to make excuses to stay home, like last year when the game was played at Dodger Stadium. This year, invites will be few and far between for valid reasons: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Jake Myers, and Yordan Alvarez all have seen their batting averages slip from last year. Even Martin Maldonado’s average is lower this season, and he batted .186 last year.
Of course injuries have played a role in keeping Astros down in the All-Star voting results. And that’s another factor in Astros fans’ frustration, the team’s curious way of framing how long a player might be out of the lineup due to injury.
Here’s a guide to the Astros injury report glossary:
Astros: “Player stubbed his toe, he should play night.”
Meaning: He’s out for two or three games minimum.
Astros: “Player has slight discomfort in his leg, might sit out the weekend.”
Meaning: 10-day injury list.
Astros: “We won’t rush him back from his shoulder injury.”
Meaning: Out for the season.
Astros: “Player needs minor surgery.”
Meaning: We gather today to honor the dearly departed.
The Astros need to stop staying “when” a player will be back and start saying “if.” What exactly is the deal with Michael Brantley?
Six games behind the Rangers certainly is a pickle, and nowhere where the Astros expected to be, but it’s not desperate times. Not yet. The Astros will be in a buying posture come the trade deadline. They reportedly are searching for another bat and starting pitcher.
If you think times are rough for the Astros, how’d you like to be these teams, all with bigger payrolls than the Astros ($193 million), all with worse won-loss records: the Mets ($354 million payroll with home fans booing), San Diego ($250 million in 4th place), the Phillies ($243 million barely above .500) and the Angels ($212 million and headlines screaming bye-bye Shohei Ohtani).
The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!