THE PALLILOG
How Houston Astros must now lean into new tools to topple familiar foes
Jul 27, 2023, 2:07 pm
The Astros have some tough series looming. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Finally the Astros-Rangers rivalry is real. The “Silver Boot Series” has been merely marketing. When both teams are good and chasing the same division title with competitive animosity thrown in, the Astros-Rangers heat is better than Texans-Cowboys can ever be.
Had the Astros finished off a three game sweep of the Rangers this week to tie them for first place in the American League West, many an Astros homer would have felt as if the Astros shipped the upstaters out of town in a pine box. That of course would have been ridiculous with the calendar having not yet clicked to August. There is also pre-trade deadline player movement to see about. Alas, the Rangers came up with their biggest win in nearly seven years Wednesday to get out of town with a two game lead (the Rangers had no big wins 2017-22 since they were no good that whole time). However, in taking five of seven games from the Rangers this month the Astros lead the season series 6-4 for the tiebreaker should the American League West come down to it.
Having won Monday and Tuesday and jumping to a 3-0 first inning lead Wednesday, the Astros had all the momentum! Blah, blah, blah. 13 unanswered Rangers runs later served as the latest reminder that momentum is merely something you have until, poof! And it’s gone. While momentum is more bromide than meaningful, the Astros finally having back Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez means a lot. Provided both stay healthy and perform at a reasonable level of production. The Rangers soon get back Corey Seager who is having a better season than both Altuve and Alvarez.
The Astros had an easier schedule than the Rangers over recent weeks but now don’t play any lousy teams for almost the next month. Three games at Minute Maid Park vs. the Rays this weekend are followed by three vs. the Guardians, four at the Yankees, three at the Orioles (after a stop at the White House), three vs. the Angels, three at the Marlins, three vs. the Mariners, then four vs. the Red Sox before the Astros next get a relative chump when they travel to Detroit.
Over the same time frame the Rangers have three games vs. the lousy White Sox and three vs. the much worse A’s. The Astros and Rangers have one series remaining with games Labor Day Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in Arlington. After that the schedule clearly favors the Astros, including three games with the A’s and six vs. the just about as bad Royals. The Rangers’ only joke opponent in September is the A’s for three. That sounds great, but we have to see who is still in the hunt come late-September and who is playing out the string. The Rangers final 10 games include seven vs. the Mariners, three against the Angels.
Bring on the Rays
It's a staggering Tampa Bay Rays’ club here for the weekend. Their record-tying 13-0 start that grew to a spectacular 29-7 mark through 36 games probably feels like it happened a couple of years ago to the Rays. Since 29-7, the Rays have gone 33-36 and now look up at the Orioles in the AL East standings. They certainly still project to make the playoffs but are no lock. The Rays have a fabulous farm system and could be very bold ahead of the trade deadline. Friday night the Rays pitch their Cy Young candidate ace Shane McClanahan who is 11-1, 2.89. For the Astros it’s Cristian Javier still trying to reestablish himself as trustworthy. After getting destroyed to the tune of a 9.14 ERA over his last five starts before the All-Star break, Javier’s first two post-break starts have been not awful, but not strong. Three runs in five innings vs. the Angels followed up by five and two-thirds innings of one-hit six-walk ball against the joke that is Oakland qualify as some progress but not quality.
Trade deadline looming
The Angels are not trading Shohei Ohtani, and made the first big move of the final days run to the trade deadline in landing Astros’ target Lucas Giolito from the White Sox Wednesday night. The Angels gave up two prospects, one considered among the top 100 in the minor leagues. The Astros' farm system has no top 100 prospect (outfielder Drew Gilbert comes closest). Nevertheless, even playing a short prospect stack, General Manager Dana Brown will have failed if he does not add a starter and/or reliever of consequence. Pitching is the clear more pressing need but a hitter would be welcomed too. Specifically someone who could be a decent designated hitter when Altuve is playing second and Alvarez is in left. Jake Meyers hasn’t hit worth much all season. Corey Julks had one nice spurt but is presently three for his last 43 (that’s an .070 batting average). DHing Altuve more to play Mauricio Dubon at second? No thanks. Dubon's water is finding its level, and in his case that's not a good thing. Over the last three weeks Dubon is 10 for 66 (.152) with not one walk drawn. Of course, adding a DH bat is rendered largely moot if Dusty Baker absurdly insists on continuing to catch Martin Maldonado nearly 75 percent of the games, leaving Yainer Diaz to DH.
Vive Le France!
When describing the country the article is feminine, “Vive La France!” J.P. has been all man and a sensational, unforeseeable boon to the Astros’ starting rotation. The 28-year-old was not remotely on the radar as a starting pitching candidate for this season. His seven innings zero earned runs mastery of the Rangers Tuesday has France’s record at 6-3 with a 2.87 earned run average in 14 starts. Incroyable! Incredible and/or amazing (showing off my high school French). For his minor league career France has a 3.73 ERA. The key to his leap is simple. It certainly isn’t electric stuff. It is vastly improved control. Over his five seasons with time in the minors France walked an average of four-point-three batters per nine innings. As an Astro France has slashed that walk rate by 40 percent to two-point-six per nine, walking just 24 batters in 84 2/3 innings pitched. France has obviously blown past Hunter Brown as the Astros’ top rookie.
More Astros on tap!
Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 4PM-ish Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets such as:
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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