THE PALLILOG
After Altuve’s legendary blast, here’s what’s next for Astros
Oct 20, 2023, 7:00 pm
Astros take Game 5. Photo by Getty Images.
It was in 1995 after the Rockets won their second straight NBA Championship that Head Coach Rudy Tomjanovich famously said "Don't EVER underestimate the heart of a champion!" This won't be happening, though those who go back to the Rockets' golden era would find it spine-tingling (I know I would) to have Rudy T. belt out his most famous quote followed by "Play Ball!" before game six Sunday night.
Down two games to none in the American League Championship series, the Astros delivered a "Godfather Part II" level sequel to their September obliteration of the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Last month it was a cumulative 39-10 three game destruction. This time it was "only" 23-12, but with the higher stakes of the ALCS, sweeping three again in Arlington is an extremely clutch been there, done that, did it again performance. It seems impossible for Jose Altuve to keep adding entries to his postseason legend but he keeps coming up with additional chapters for the book. Altuve's top of the ninth three-run homer Friday turning a 4-2 deficit into a 5-4 lead and ultimately win is up until now the defining moment between the Astros and Rangers franchises. But the job is not yet complete.
After winning three straight on the road the Astros need to avoid another deja vu feeling. The road team having won all five games of this series reminds of the 2019 World Series when the Astros rallied from 0-2 down to take three games at the Washington Nationals, only to then lose games six and seven at home. Despite their perplexingly poor performance at Minute Maid Park this year the odds are solidly against the Astros again failing in both games six and seven, but those odds are roughly 4-1, not 100-1. So here we are, the Astros one victory from a fifth World Series appearance in seven years.
The game six pitching matchup favors the challengers. One could argue that J.P. France should get the ball instead, but Framber Valdez gets a shot at redemption with the game six start as the Astros try to close out the upstaters. Valdez had a first inning debacle in losing game two, that after a crummy performance against Minnesota in the Division Series. In seven innings over those two outings Valdez has been torched for 14 hits, walked four, and given up nine earned runs plus one unearned run caused by his own error. On balance over the last four months Valdez has been lousy with a 5.09 earned run average over 18 starts. Still two seasons away from free agent eligibility, he can forget about a huge contract extension this offseason.
The Rangers go with game two winner Nathan Eovaldi. The Alvin native has been money this postseason in each of his three starts, though the Astros did manage three runs in six innings against him. It's not worth anything now but noteworthy anyway: two years ago the Astros won the pennant at Minute Maid Park by beating Eovaldi in game six. That was Astros 5-0 over the Red Sox with Luis Garcia the winning pitcher.
If there is a decisive seventh game Monday, the game three starting pitching matchup comes back around. That means Cristian Javier for the Astros, Max Scherzer for the Rangers. That means clear advantage Astros, though as always in one game you never know.
Javier doesn't have the body of work yet to rate with the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time but what he has done over four starts is awesome. Even after Josh Jung proved Javier a postseason mortal by hitting a two run homer off of him, "El Reptil" sits with a cold-blooded 0.82 earned run average with the opponents' batting average in those four starts a feeble .071.
Scherzer meanwhile would try to summon up the stuff and command to give the Rangers a chance through the early innings. At 39 years old and rusty he may not have the goods to do so, but he would not be cowed by the pressure of the situation.
Scherzer does have game seven at Minute Maid Park experience. He started the ultimate game of the 2019 World Series and in an immensely gritty performance held the Astros to two runs despite needing 103 pitches to get through five innings. No need to get into how that game and series ended.
Thoughts on the benches clearing episode in the bottom of the eighth Friday. Trailing 4-2 and having walked the leadoff man, Bryan Abreu would have been foolish to intentionally drill Adolis Garcia in his first plate appearance after his game turning three-run homer off of Justin Verlander. Nevertheless, batters don't take well to 99 miles per hour coming toward their head and shoulders. Garcia snapped, the benches unnecessarily emptied, but fortunately nothing stupid came from it. Garcia and Abreu were both ejected and then Dusty Baker got tossed arguing Abreu's ejection. Abreu getting run may well have benefitted the Astros. He faced two batters, walking one then hitting the other. After the nonsense, Ryan Pressly came on to get three straight outs and keep the Astros within two going to the ninth. The stakes are too high now for any aftershocks within this series, but this will likely be remembered in 2024.
With the massive thunderbolts Jose Abreu has been delivering the last three weeks, it's incredible that he went 105 games (his last 55 games with the White Sox plus his first 50 games as an Astro) mustering one measly homer. Even if he was getting out of traction every day before heading to the ballpark. Even if he was using a pool cue stick instead of a bat. The raw power is, well, Yordan-esque. Speaking of Mr. Alvarez, best jersey I saw at Globe Life Field was an Astros fan wearing a number 35. Not "Verlander" on the back, but "Fields." As in Josh Fields, who Jeff Luhnow traded for Alvarez in 2016. If the Astros opt to retire Verlander's 35 at some point, Fields should be invited to the ceremony.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
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