THE PALLILOG
After Altuve’s legendary blast, here’s what’s next for Astros
Oct 20, 2023, 7:00 pm
Astros take Game 5. Photo by Getty Images.
It was in 1995 after the Rockets won their second straight NBA Championship that Head Coach Rudy Tomjanovich famously said "Don't EVER underestimate the heart of a champion!" This won't be happening, though those who go back to the Rockets' golden era would find it spine-tingling (I know I would) to have Rudy T. belt out his most famous quote followed by "Play Ball!" before game six Sunday night.
Down two games to none in the American League Championship series, the Astros delivered a "Godfather Part II" level sequel to their September obliteration of the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Last month it was a cumulative 39-10 three game destruction. This time it was "only" 23-12, but with the higher stakes of the ALCS, sweeping three again in Arlington is an extremely clutch been there, done that, did it again performance. It seems impossible for Jose Altuve to keep adding entries to his postseason legend but he keeps coming up with additional chapters for the book. Altuve's top of the ninth three-run homer Friday turning a 4-2 deficit into a 5-4 lead and ultimately win is up until now the defining moment between the Astros and Rangers franchises. But the job is not yet complete.
After winning three straight on the road the Astros need to avoid another deja vu feeling. The road team having won all five games of this series reminds of the 2019 World Series when the Astros rallied from 0-2 down to take three games at the Washington Nationals, only to then lose games six and seven at home. Despite their perplexingly poor performance at Minute Maid Park this year the odds are solidly against the Astros again failing in both games six and seven, but those odds are roughly 4-1, not 100-1. So here we are, the Astros one victory from a fifth World Series appearance in seven years.
The game six pitching matchup favors the challengers. One could argue that J.P. France should get the ball instead, but Framber Valdez gets a shot at redemption with the game six start as the Astros try to close out the upstaters. Valdez had a first inning debacle in losing game two, that after a crummy performance against Minnesota in the Division Series. In seven innings over those two outings Valdez has been torched for 14 hits, walked four, and given up nine earned runs plus one unearned run caused by his own error. On balance over the last four months Valdez has been lousy with a 5.09 earned run average over 18 starts. Still two seasons away from free agent eligibility, he can forget about a huge contract extension this offseason.
The Rangers go with game two winner Nathan Eovaldi. The Alvin native has been money this postseason in each of his three starts, though the Astros did manage three runs in six innings against him. It's not worth anything now but noteworthy anyway: two years ago the Astros won the pennant at Minute Maid Park by beating Eovaldi in game six. That was Astros 5-0 over the Red Sox with Luis Garcia the winning pitcher.
If there is a decisive seventh game Monday, the game three starting pitching matchup comes back around. That means Cristian Javier for the Astros, Max Scherzer for the Rangers. That means clear advantage Astros, though as always in one game you never know.
Javier doesn't have the body of work yet to rate with the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time but what he has done over four starts is awesome. Even after Josh Jung proved Javier a postseason mortal by hitting a two run homer off of him, "El Reptil" sits with a cold-blooded 0.82 earned run average with the opponents' batting average in those four starts a feeble .071.
Scherzer meanwhile would try to summon up the stuff and command to give the Rangers a chance through the early innings. At 39 years old and rusty he may not have the goods to do so, but he would not be cowed by the pressure of the situation.
Scherzer does have game seven at Minute Maid Park experience. He started the ultimate game of the 2019 World Series and in an immensely gritty performance held the Astros to two runs despite needing 103 pitches to get through five innings. No need to get into how that game and series ended.
Thoughts on the benches clearing episode in the bottom of the eighth Friday. Trailing 4-2 and having walked the leadoff man, Bryan Abreu would have been foolish to intentionally drill Adolis Garcia in his first plate appearance after his game turning three-run homer off of Justin Verlander. Nevertheless, batters don't take well to 99 miles per hour coming toward their head and shoulders. Garcia snapped, the benches unnecessarily emptied, but fortunately nothing stupid came from it. Garcia and Abreu were both ejected and then Dusty Baker got tossed arguing Abreu's ejection. Abreu getting run may well have benefitted the Astros. He faced two batters, walking one then hitting the other. After the nonsense, Ryan Pressly came on to get three straight outs and keep the Astros within two going to the ninth. The stakes are too high now for any aftershocks within this series, but this will likely be remembered in 2024.
With the massive thunderbolts Jose Abreu has been delivering the last three weeks, it's incredible that he went 105 games (his last 55 games with the White Sox plus his first 50 games as an Astro) mustering one measly homer. Even if he was getting out of traction every day before heading to the ballpark. Even if he was using a pool cue stick instead of a bat. The raw power is, well, Yordan-esque. Speaking of Mr. Alvarez, best jersey I saw at Globe Life Field was an Astros fan wearing a number 35. Not "Verlander" on the back, but "Fields." As in Josh Fields, who Jeff Luhnow traded for Alvarez in 2016. If the Astros opt to retire Verlander's 35 at some point, Fields should be invited to the ceremony.
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How these 3 critical factors could swing battle between Texans and Jets
Oct 30, 2024, 3:06 pm
The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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