SERIES PREVIEW

Decisive factors as Astros aim to even series with Reds

Astros Yainer Diaz, Joe Espada, Yordan Alvarez
The Astros are back in action on Wednesday. Composite Getty Image.

Houston Astros (75-63, first in the AL West) vs. Cincinnati Reds (66-73, fourth in the NL Central)

Cincinnati; Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

PITCHING PROBABLES: Astros: Spencer Arrighetti (7-11, 4.63 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 151 strikeouts); Reds: Nick Martinez (6-6, 3.78 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 86 strikeouts)

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK: LINE Astros -140, Reds +119; over/under is 9 runs

BOTTOM LINE: The Cincinnati Reds take on the Houston Astros after Ty France had four hits against the Astros on Monday.

Cincinnati has a 34-39 record in home games and a 66-73 record overall. The Reds are 49-27 in games when they record eight or more hits.

Houston has a 75-63 record overall and a 36-34 record on the road. The Astros have a 62-18 record in games when they have more hits than their opponents.

Wednesday’s game is the second meeting between these teams this season.

TOP PERFORMERS: Elly De La Cruz has 22 home runs, 61 walks and 61 RBI while hitting .261 for the Reds. Tyler Stephenson is 14-for-35 with two doubles, two home runs and five RBI over the past 10 games.

Yordan Alvarez has 30 doubles, two triples, 30 home runs and 73 RBI for the Astros. Alex Bregman is 9-for-36 with a double, two home runs and two RBI over the past 10 games.

LAST 10 GAMES: Reds: 4-6, .267 batting average, 5.57 ERA, outscored by nine runs

Astros: 6-4, .255 batting average, 2.38 ERA, outscored opponents by 16 runs

INJURIES: Reds: Stuart Fairchild: 60-Day IL (thumb), Nick Lodolo: 15-Day IL (finger), Austin Wynns: 60-Day IL (teres), Andrew Abbott: 15-Day IL (shoulder), Jeimer Candelario: 10-Day IL (toe), Christian Roa: 60-Day IL (shoulder), Hunter Greene: 15-Day IL (elbow), Graham Ashcraft: 60-Day IL (elbow), Nick Martini: 60-Day IL (thumb), Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 60-Day IL (hand), Ian Gibaut: 60-Day IL (forearm), Tejay Antone: 60-Day IL (elbow), Matt McLain: 60-Day IL (shoulder)

Astros: Alex Bregman: day-to-day (elbow), J.P. France: 60-Day IL (undisclosed), Kyle Tucker: 60-Day IL (shin), Cristian Javier: 60-Day IL (forearm), Jose Urquidy: 60-Day IL (forearm), Oliver Ortega: 60-Day IL (elbow), Bennett Sousa: 60-Day IL (shoulder), Penn Murfee: 60-Day IL (elbow), Luis Garcia: 60-Day IL (elbow), Lance McCullers Jr.: 60-Day IL (elbow), Kendall Graveman: 60-Day IL (elbow)

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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