YOUR MOVE MISH
How MLB's decision on Astros ALDS will certainly be a hot topic for debate
Oct 5, 2023, 5:50 pm
Will the roof be open at Minute Maid this weekend? Composite image by Jack Brame.
How Astros somehow harvested success where MLB planted a crop of excuses, failure
There’s much ado about whether the roof at Minute Maid Park should/will be open or closed for the American League Division Series starting Saturday between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros.
Of course the decision will be made depending on the weather, but the forecast is for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies and no threat of rain. That’s ideal weather for baseball. Absolutely perfect. Even San Diego would be jealous.
Expect the roof to be closed.
It won’t be because Astros players prefer playing under a closed roof. They believe a closed roof is a big part of their home field advantage. Outfielders don’t have to worry about atmospheric vagaries to catch fly balls. A controlled environment gives an edge to the better team, and that’s the Astros most times. OK, maybe not this year when the Astros had a losing record at home. But still, given a choice, the Astros would rather be playing at home, under a roof, in front of their screaming fans.
During the regular season, Astros management calls the shots on whether the roof will be open or closed at Minute Maid Park. Almost always, the decision is to close the roof. You can count the number of times the roof was open this year on one hand.
For legit reasons. It does get toasty during summer in Houston. Over the years, the Astros have a higher winning percentage with the roof closed than open. It costs about $1,000 an hour to air condition Minute Maid Park, which was only slightly higher than my electric bill this summer.
It used to be that the Astros started night games with the roof open and closed the roof after the sun went down. That stopped in 2005.
But when the post-season rolls around, it’s the commissioner of baseball’s decision whether the roof will be open or closed. Last year, Game 2 of the American League Championship Series was played under the stars at Minute Maid Park, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone blamed the Yankees’ loss on the roof being open. Boone whined that an Aaron Judge fly ball would have been a home run if the roof had been closed, but wind kept the ball inside the park for Kyle Tucker to catch it.
After that, the roof was closed for all three games of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park.
I’m betting the roof will be closed for Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS this weekend because Fox is broadcasting the games and Fox loves the great indoors. TV has a mighty voice in baseball decisions, especially during the playoffs when networks pay big bucks and they want no whammies.
In 2017, the Super Bowl was at NRG Stadium in Houston and Fox did the game. That day was about 66 balmy degrees for the New England Patriots’ comeback win in overtime over the Atlanta Falcons. The roof was closed.
In 2004, the Super Bowl was at NRG Stadium. The temperature was a cool, crisp 62 degrees for the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers and Janet Jackson’s famous “wardrobe malfunction” at halftime. The roof was closed with CBS doing the game.
A Fox person told me that closing the roof on a sports stadium creates a controlled TV studio. The network doesn’t have to worry about drizzly weather, shadows or the sun dipping in and out from behind clouds. The entire field’s lighting is uniform. Sound technicians don’t have to worry about planes flying overhead or crowd noise evaporating into the open sky.
Unless the MLB commissioner offers divine intervention, expect Justin Verlander to deal with Twins batters under the Minute Maid Park roof.
Takeaways from the Tigers sweep of the Astros
Total butt kicking. The offense was dreadful, scoring just two runs over three games. However, what’s killing the offense the most is the outfield. Outside of when Altuve plays left field, Houston doesn’t have another major league-quality outfielder right now. Jesus Sanchez not only swung at a Charlie Morton curveball that hit him in the knee, he’s also ice-cold, going 0-for-28 at the plate. At least he’s someone you expect to turn things around, but he’s in a huge slump currently. Beyond him, Jacob Melton, Taylor Trammell, and Chas McCormick have all been dragging down the offense. Cam Smith is struggling too, with just one hit in his last seven games.
Is Framber Valdez going to be okay?
Starting pitching was another big issue against the Tigers, and Valdez was a key part of the problem, basically losing the finale in the first inning after allowing six runs. This isn’t an outlier—he’s got a 7+ ERA through four starts in August. Spencer Arrighetti isn’t faring much better, posting a 7+ ERA through three starts. One silver lining with Valdez: the Tigers know him well. They had success against him in the playoffs last season, and it looks like they’re continuing that formula—force him to throw strikes, hit the other way on the sinker, and if the curveball isn’t up, let it go. AJ Hinch knows the deal.
Is the return of Yordan Alvarez enough to boost the offense?
It has to be. The only real way to give this lineup a spark is getting Yordan and Jake Meyers back. Yordan had a successful first rehab outing, collecting a couple of hits, a walk, and even a stolen base. Adding him back to the top of the lineup gives the Astros a formidable top four: Peña, Altuve, Yordan, and Correa. As for Meyers, the outfield has been the biggest drag on the offense. The key is whether he can continue to hit near .300 when he returns from injury. If he does, Altuve and Meyers in the outfield makes a huge difference, and Joe Espada can figure out right field with Sanchez and Smith.
Is the schedule not as soft as anticipated?
We’ve seen some strange results across the league this week, and some of that has to be chalked up to the Dog Days of Summer. Players are tired, and results have been wild. Thankfully, the Mariners are struggling too, giving the Astros some breathing room. Player adjustments after the trade deadline could also be a factor—Sanchez, anyone? Many big free agents have struggled immediately after changing teams, Walker and Juan Soto included.
Can they recover and take advantage of bad teams?
One thing we know about this year’s Astros: they can flip the switch and win multiple series on a moment’s notice. They’re just as capable of sweeping a series as they are of getting swept. Let’s hope that starts with four wins in Baltimore.
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