THE PALLILOG
Houston Astros ALDS puzzle could end with a swerve solution
Oct 6, 2022, 1:58 pm
Which pitcher should start Game 2 for Houston? Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Another magnificent Astros’ regular season is complete, all 106 wins worth. The 162 game marathon truly determines the best teams in a given year. Now it’s the postseason sprint where a really good four weeks is what it takes for any of the twelve teams hoping for autumn glory. The path is notably easier for the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves who earned byes past the new best-of-three Wild Card series. Since the first Wild Card was introduced in 1995 there have been 27 postseasons, so that makes 54 World Series spots over those 27 years. Only 35 percent of the time (19 of 54) has the team with the best record in its league advanced to the World Series. In only seven of the 27 years of the Wild Card era has the team with the best record in the Major Leagues gone on to win the tournament. This year the Astros are obviously the best team in the American League. The Dodgers obviously are the class of the National League. The likelihood that we get another Astros-Dodgers World Series matchup five years after the first? Definitely less than 50-50. Maybe not even 30-70.
Should Framber Valdez start Game 2?
After getting rocked in consecutive starts following his record 25 consecutive “quality starts” streak, Framber Valdez had a strong peace of mind five innings no runs 10 strikeouts showing in the season finale Wednesday. For most of the season it was quite evident that Framber would/should slot behind Justin Verlander as the Astros’ number two playoff starter. But should he? Things have recently changed. On season body of work Framber is an easy call, but as the Astros can attest to from two of the last three World Series outcomes, teams don’t win in October (and early November) based on their body of work. They win on what they do in October (and early November). Cristian Javier has been much better down the stretch. He’s been darn near untouchable, firing 23 shutout innings with just six hits allowed over his last four starts. Lance McCullers also factors into the equation.
Game two is at Minute Maid Park. For his career McCullers has been excellent at MMP (2.67 earned run average) and not at all trustworthy on the road (4.43 ERA). He made only eight starts this season but the form chart held: 1.50 ERA at home, 3.57 away. Framber meanwhile was notably better on the road. 3.54 ERA in Houston, a sparkling 2.27 everywhere else. Javier had the most even splits, 2.26 home, 2.84 road.
Remember that with the TV-dictated schedule, if the series goes to a game four (on the road) Verlander would have four days rest if the choice was to use him trying to closeout if up two-one, or stay alive if down 2-1. Using Verlander in game four would mean if a decisive game five (at Minute Maid Park) was necessary the fourth different starting pitcher would be needed.
So…there is no definitive right answer, but I’d go Javier at home in game two, Framber on the road in game three. Then if up 2-1, McCullers in game four hoping to win then and have Verlander set for game one of the League Championship Series. If Verlander went in game four or five of the Division Series he’d be unavailable until game three of the LCS, and that would be his only LCS start unless brought back on three days rest if there was a game seven. Verlander in game four would have McCullers ready for game five, at home.
Path of least resistance
The Astros await the Blue Jays-Mariners survivor. There is no huge gap between the two but if the Astros I slightly lean toward preferring to face the Mariners. The Blue Jays’ batting order is way more potent than what the M’s put forth, it’s a better lineup than the Astros have. On the other hand, the Mariners have the better pitching and defense. Tiebreaker? No customs to deal with in Seattle!
Some of this is on Dusty Baker
Ultimately it falls on players to perform when called upon, but it seems reasonable to cast some blame Dusty Baker’s way for the generally lousy production of trade deadline acquisitions Christian Vazquez and Trey Mancini. Upon arrival Vazquez was having a substantially better season than Martin Maldonado, Mancini notably better relative to the tumbled over the hill Yuli Gurriel. Baker opted to ride the incumbents more than use the newbies. That could not have helped Vazquez and Mancini. Mancini looks broken at the plate, hitting into more double plays than he has hits over his last 45 at bats (six GIDP, four hits). With Maldonado and Gurriel obviously to be used as the primary if not every game starters, the most notable lineup decision to be made is who is the designated hitter (or plays left field if Yordan Alvarez is DHing). Aledmys Diaz looked to be making the best case, but went one for 19 to finish the season.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!