THE PALLILOG

Houston Astros ALDS puzzle could end with a swerve solution

Houston Astros ALDS puzzle could end with a swerve solution
Which pitcher should start Game 2 for Houston? Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Another magnificent Astros’ regular season is complete, all 106 wins worth. The 162 game marathon truly determines the best teams in a given year. Now it’s the postseason sprint where a really good four weeks is what it takes for any of the twelve teams hoping for autumn glory. The path is notably easier for the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves who earned byes past the new best-of-three Wild Card series. Since the first Wild Card was introduced in 1995 there have been 27 postseasons, so that makes 54 World Series spots over those 27 years. Only 35 percent of the time (19 of 54) has the team with the best record in its league advanced to the World Series. In only seven of the 27 years of the Wild Card era has the team with the best record in the Major Leagues gone on to win the tournament. This year the Astros are obviously the best team in the American League. The Dodgers obviously are the class of the National League. The likelihood that we get another Astros-Dodgers World Series matchup five years after the first? Definitely less than 50-50. Maybe not even 30-70.

Should Framber Valdez start Game 2?

After getting rocked in consecutive starts following his record 25 consecutive “quality starts” streak, Framber Valdez had a strong peace of mind five innings no runs 10 strikeouts showing in the season finale Wednesday. For most of the season it was quite evident that Framber would/should slot behind Justin Verlander as the Astros’ number two playoff starter. But should he? Things have recently changed. On season body of work Framber is an easy call, but as the Astros can attest to from two of the last three World Series outcomes, teams don’t win in October (and early November) based on their body of work. They win on what they do in October (and early November). Cristian Javier has been much better down the stretch. He’s been darn near untouchable, firing 23 shutout innings with just six hits allowed over his last four starts. Lance McCullers also factors into the equation.

Game two is at Minute Maid Park. For his career McCullers has been excellent at MMP (2.67 earned run average) and not at all trustworthy on the road (4.43 ERA). He made only eight starts this season but the form chart held: 1.50 ERA at home, 3.57 away. Framber meanwhile was notably better on the road. 3.54 ERA in Houston, a sparkling 2.27 everywhere else. Javier had the most even splits, 2.26 home, 2.84 road.

Remember that with the TV-dictated schedule, if the series goes to a game four (on the road) Verlander would have four days rest if the choice was to use him trying to closeout if up two-one, or stay alive if down 2-1. Using Verlander in game four would mean if a decisive game five (at Minute Maid Park) was necessary the fourth different starting pitcher would be needed.

So…there is no definitive right answer, but I’d go Javier at home in game two, Framber on the road in game three. Then if up 2-1, McCullers in game four hoping to win then and have Verlander set for game one of the League Championship Series. If Verlander went in game four or five of the Division Series he’d be unavailable until game three of the LCS, and that would be his only LCS start unless brought back on three days rest if there was a game seven. Verlander in game four would have McCullers ready for game five, at home.

Path of least resistance

The Astros await the Blue Jays-Mariners survivor. There is no huge gap between the two but if the Astros I slightly lean toward preferring to face the Mariners. The Blue Jays’ batting order is way more potent than what the M’s put forth, it’s a better lineup than the Astros have. On the other hand, the Mariners have the better pitching and defense. Tiebreaker? No customs to deal with in Seattle!

Some of this is on Dusty Baker

Ultimately it falls on players to perform when called upon, but it seems reasonable to cast some blame Dusty Baker’s way for the generally lousy production of trade deadline acquisitions Christian Vazquez and Trey Mancini. Upon arrival Vazquez was having a substantially better season than Martin Maldonado, Mancini notably better relative to the tumbled over the hill Yuli Gurriel. Baker opted to ride the incumbents more than use the newbies. That could not have helped Vazquez and Mancini. Mancini looks broken at the plate, hitting into more double plays than he has hits over his last 45 at bats (six GIDP, four hits). With Maldonado and Gurriel obviously to be used as the primary if not every game starters, the most notable lineup decision to be made is who is the designated hitter (or plays left field if Yordan Alvarez is DHing). Aledmys Diaz looked to be making the best case, but went one for 19 to finish the season.

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Dodgers money is pouring in. Composite Getty Image.

The Dodgers have spent a lot of money hoping to win their second straight World Series and bettors are putting their cash on Los Angeles.

BetMGM Sportsbook has taken 37.8% of its futures money on the Dodgers, which far exceeds its previous high of 21.7% of money that was placed on the 2022 New York Mets. It's also far ahead of this year's Mets, who at 9.4% are receiving the second-highest amount of the handle. The New York Yankees are third at 7.7%.

The Dodgers also lead in betting tickets at 17.5%, with the Mets next at 8.7% and the Philadelphia Phillies at 8.6%.

Opening day for most teams is Thursday.

“It's all Dodgers money,” BetMGM trading manager Halvor Egeland said. “That's somewhat frequent when it comes to the favorites. Favorites are going to take most of the money, but this is a level we don't typically see. ... It's a little bit of a hole liability wise, which is a little out of the norm for a favorite."

That's because sportsbooks typically set a high enough price in anticipation for the rush of money, but not to this level. The Dodgers, who already are 2-0 after a two-game series against the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo, are +240 at BetMGM.

The next closest are the Yankees and Atlanta Braves at +900 each.

DraftKings Sportsbook race and sports operations director Johnny Avello said the Dodgers are popular, but the futures money is fairly well spread out. LA is +290 at DraftKings and the Braves are next at +750 and the Yankees at +850.

“They've got a complete team,” Avello said of the Dodgers. “Will they win it all again? I don't know. Sometimes at the end of the year, things just need to go your way. I don't care how good you are.”

Meet the Mets

The Mets are challenging the Dodgers on spending, and the club made a splashy move by signing Juan Soto to a record $765 million, 15-year contract.

Bettors are banking on that aggressiveness to help the Mets win their first World Series title since 1986.

The Mets are listed at +1200 at BetMGM and DraftKings.

“If the Mets start off good, they're going to continue to take money,” Avello said. “If they don't start off good and we raise their odds, they're going to continue to take money. They're going to be bet all year long.”

Hope for the A's?

The Athletics went 32-32 after the All-Star break and then broke their recent practice and invested money in major league payroll.

There are believers in the A's, who are about to play their first of at least three seasons at a Triple-A ballpark in West Sacramento, California, before an anticipated move to Las Vegas,

The A's were bet up from a win total at BetMGM of 70 1/2 to 72 1/2, though the number settled back down to 71 1/2.

“We may end up going back there,” Egeland said of 72 1/2. “It seemed like as soon as we went up with the A's, there's some interest. Even in the division, we had some interest there on the A's, which is kind of surprising for the amount of money they spend. But I do think people like the young talent and pitchers like Mason Miller.”

Betting on Francona

Terry Francona was hired for another reclamation project, the Reds hoping he will find similar success in Cincinnati that he had with Boston and Cleveland.

“We are seeing some money on them to win it all,” Avello said. “You get a really good price. They’re projected to win around 78, 79 games or so. And this guy’s a winner. He finds ways to make teams that are average much better, so that’s why I think bettors are betting the Reds to win it all.”

The Reds, who have a core of young players led by Elly De La Cruz, are +8000 at BetMGM and +9000 at DraftKings.

Trout on comeback tour

Injuries have limited Los Angeles Angels slugger Mike Trout, once the game's most complete player, to 82 or fewer games three of the past four seasons.

He is moving from center to right field with the idea that covering less ground in the outfield might help him stay healthy.

Trout is the +300 favorite at BetMGM to be selected AL Comeback Player of the Year.

“People are loving that one,” Egeland said. “It's not an award that usually gets a ton of handle, but when you have someone like Trout available, that's where most of the money is going to go.”

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