Undeniable reasons Houston Astros season hangs in balance over this critical stretch

STONE COLD 'STROS

Undeniable reasons Houston Astros season hangs in balance over this critical stretch
The stakes are high! Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros secured a much-needed series win over the Tigers behind a classic Justin Verlander performance on Sunday. It was nice to see Verlander bounce back after his worst performance of the season against the Yankees in his previous start.

JV received some unjust criticism after getting shelled by the Yankees, with many fans claiming he's over the hill and has been terrible this season. Which is completely false, as the only game Verlander surrendered more than two runs was in that one start in New York. Outside that one bump in the road, he's given his team a chance to win in every one of his starts.

Speaking of pitching, this week we arrive at the quarter point of the season and the Astros' team ERA (4.96) is the third-worst in baseball, behind only the Rockies and Marlins. As opposed to Houston's offense, that is becoming a strength for the club, posting the best team batting average in MLB.

So pitching continues to be the main issue, along with their inability to hit with runners in scoring position.

However, clutch hitting appears to be moving in the right direction, with the team scoring runs late to give the bullpen a larger margin for error against the Detroit over the weekend.

The time is now

The Astros next fourteen out of seventeen games are against a divisional opponent, so if there was ever a time to make up some ground in the division, this is it. The Astros face the A's, Brewers, Angels, and Mariners in the coming days, and the club is 6.5 games behind division leading Seattle.

The season could ultimately come down to this stretch of games, and now would be the perfect time for Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman's bats to heat up. Yordan is really struggling with runners in scoring position and Bregman is struggling to hit, period.

Bregman is in Jose Abreu territory, currently sporting the 5th lowest OPS in MLB (.534), and the 4th lowest slugging percentage (.264). Moving him down in the batting order certainly looks like the right move, as he has one double in his last 24 games, and just two extra base hits in that span.

Who leaves the rotation when Jose Urquidy returns?

Don't miss the video above as we examine arguably the most important stretch of the Astros season to date, how Houston will set up their pitching rotation moving forward, and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan every Monday on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel! We'll continue to drop more episodes throughout the week.

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The Astros are heading to the Rockies! Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros closed out a powerful homestand with a statement series win over the Cubs, led by the continued emergence of Cam Smith and the lockdown stuff of Bryan Abreu. Smith, who seems to live for high-leverage moments, went toe-to-toe with Kyle Tucker and delivered again and again, further cementing his place in Houston’s growing offensive core. Meanwhile, Abreu was simply untouchable—striking out all four batters he faced in a lights-out appearance on Thursday and returning Sunday to toss two scoreless innings in front of Josh Hader’s 23rd straight save. The bullpen continues to impress.

As Houston heads west for a six-game road trip, starting with the Rockies and ending with the Dodgers, the rotation will remain under the microscope. On paper, the Rockies series should be a tune-up—Colorado owns the worst record in baseball. But even in a small three-game set, anything can happen. The Dodgers are a different animal entirely. They’ve been the class of the National League and pose a challenge that may mirror what the Astros saw from the Phillies and Cubs—but this time, Houston won’t have the advantage of home field. Considering the team’s elite pitching and recent play, the Astros should still feel confident, but they’ll need to prove they can sustain this level on the road.

Trade speculation is beginning to swirl, particularly around Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins. Mullins hasn’t lit it up this season—he’s hitting just .213—but his 12 home runs suggest some underlying pop. Houston may believe there's untapped potential in his swing that can be unlocked. It's a move that would fit the Astros’ track record: buying low on a talented player and letting their system do the rest.

Speaking of roster decisions, Christian Walker's bat is officially on watch. Despite showing flashes of life earlier this season, Walker hit just .221 in June and has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Meanwhile, Jon Singleton has been crushing home runs in Sugar Land and waiting patiently for another big-league shot. The organization has to be thinking about giving Singleton a chance if Walker’s struggles continue.

But not every question has an immediate answer. Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from the injured list was rocky at best, surrendering eight runs in a short outing. Still, the reaction from fans calling for his release is premature at best and delusional at worst. Joe Espada left him in too long, and everyone knew it. It's still June, and McCullers is a proven postseason arm. He’s not going anywhere, not with that contract—and frankly, not with the upside he still offers.

More to the story

Then there's Jeremy Peña. The hope was that his sore ribs were nothing serious. That changed after the homestand, when further imaging revealed a small fracture and landed Peña on the 10-day IL. It’s a frustrating development, but credit the Astros’ medical staff for pushing for clarity—learning from the Yordan Alvarez situation this year. With superagent Scott Boras now representing him, it appeared negotiations were over. But Astros GM Dana Brown revealed on the pregame show this weekend that he’s already reached back out to Boras to reopen the conversation. Whether both sides can agree to new terms is a different story.

So while the Astros leave home riding a wave of momentum, the road ahead holds tougher matchups, key roster questions, and new injury concerns. They’ve shown they’re built to weather all of it. Now they’ll have to prove it.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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