DESTINY AWAITS
5 undeniable factors that will determine Houston Astros 2022 destiny
Jul 20, 2022, 2:36 pm
DESTINY AWAITS
Although the Astros have played over 56 percent of their regular season games, the All-Star break still signifies the "halfway" point of the MLB season. Houston ended the first half with a loss to Oakland but has otherwise had a successful season thus far, as evidenced by their list of All-Stars, including Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, and Framber Valdez.
While Altuve and Alvarez sat out the mid-summer classic to rest injuries, and Verlander didn't get playing time due to his recent start, Tucker and Valdez got their first taste of All-Star play. Tucker had a few innings in the outfield, and Valdez appeared for an efficient scoreless inning, coming the half-inning before the AL put up the three winning runs, giving him the win in the scorebook.
Framber's perfect. pic.twitter.com/ixEo6JMkHh
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 20, 2022
Baseball's attention now shifts to October and the path to it, which will play itself out over the next two months and change. Here are some things specifically for the Astros to keep an eye on:
Houston enters the resumption of regular-season play with the third-best record in baseball and second in the AL, sitting at 59-32 behind the Dodgers at 60-30 and the Yankees at 64-28. They'll welcome the Yankees into town for a doubleheader on Thursday to cap off the seven-game regular-season series against New York that was initially supposed to happen in April but shifted due to the delayed start with the offseason's lockout.
Houston has taken three of the first five matchups in 2022, meaning they'll take the season series if they can grab at least one game of the doubleheader. In terms of other marquee matchups for Houston in the second half, they'll welcome in the Red Sox for three games at the beginning of August, travel to Atlanta for a World Series rematch on August 19th, and then head back to Houston to host Carlos Correa's return when the Twins come to town on August 23rd.
After the quick doubleheader with the Yankees, the Astros will have the challenge of facing the surging Mariners for seven games over a ten-game span, the final time the teams will square off in the regular season. Seattle is red-hot right now, having not lost a game since July 1st and rattling off fourteen in a row to go from 37-42 to 51-42 and taking over as Houston's biggest threat in the division, for now, by improving from 13.5 games back to 9.
It's a significant drop from the Mariners in second place to the rest of the AL West, with the Rangers sitting third at 17.5 games back and a losing record of 41-49. If Houston can find a way to win the majority of the upcoming seven games, it may make their path to another AL West division win that much easier.
Looking ahead to August and September, the Astros will have the chance to feast on the lesser teams of the AL West, with the Rangers, Angels, and A's accounting for over a third of their remaining games. If they handle business against the Mariners in the next couple of weeks, they could have the division virtually locked up very early.
A benefit of the short stretch of days off for teams over the All-Star break is it gives those with minor injuries time to try and get some much-needed rest. That's the case for Altuve and Alvarez. Altuve exited a game last week after taking a pitch to the knee, returning in Sunday's game but still deciding to sit out the All-Star game to rest and be prepared for the second half.
Alvarez, meanwhile, ended up on the IL on July 10th with his nagging hand injury. While the injury sounds concerning, Dusty Baker remained hopeful that with the days off, Houston's star DH could be ready to go against the Yankees on Thursday. Houston has more players awaiting an eventual return, namely Michael Brantley and Lance McCullers Jr.
Brantley's timetable is still unclear; getting sidelined with a shoulder injury that, to this point, still has no clear designation or rehab plan but is not expected to cause significant time missed in the second half. In more positive news, McCullers Jr. will make his long-awaited return to live play with a rehab start in Corpus Christi on Friday. Although Houston's rotation is already surprisingly strong, adding another high-caliber arm to the mix can't hurt.
Speaking of adding players to the mix, when play resumes on Thursday, the MLB will be less than two weeks away from the August 2nd trade deadline. It's unclear how aggressive Houston will be this time, with speculations ranging from packaging several big pieces and highest prospects to get Juan Soto to making very few moves. One surprising scenario is Houston going after a top starting pitcher, which is gaining steam in the rumor mill despite the Astros being very strong at the position.
James Click should undoubtedly listen to any calls coming his way because while the Astros' roster is strong, addressing minor flaws or improving areas in the smallest ways can pay massive dividends down the road. While I wouldn't advocate selling too much of the future, you never know what next season will bring, compared to the near-100% confidence that Houston will be in the expanded playoffs this year. The long-term window may be open, but this year's window is even wider.
It's no question that, despite your opinions about the 2017 team, the Astros have been dominant in the last five years, including in the playoffs, where they've made it to the ALCS each season and the World Series in three. Still, with their lone Commissioner's Trophy considered tainted by many, it still feels as though Houston needs to win another to acquire the respect of those outside of Houston.
It will arguably be even more challenging this year, with the playoffs expanding from 10 to 12 teams, allowing teams with weaker records to get hot at the right time and upset a strong team like the Astros. It makes the second half all that more important, as not only can they earn themselves a bye for the first round of the playoffs, but performing well down the stretch may keep the spark they need to transfer that to the postseason and win it all again.
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.