WINNING BLUEPRINT
Critical factors that give Astros the edge in series finale with Mariners
Apr 9, 2025, 12:58 pm
A big game from Yordan Alvarez would come in handy. Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images.
Houston Astros (5-6) at Seattle Mariners (4-8)
Wednesday, 4:10 p.m. EDT, T-Mobile Park
The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners meet Wednesday afternoon to wrap up their three-game series, each looking to leave with a much-needed win. The teams have split the first two games, setting up a pivotal rubber match between two AL West foes still trying to find their footing in the early going.
Pitching Matchup:
Houston hands the ball to Hunter Brown (1-1, 3.00 ERA), who’s been sharp through his first two outings with 15 strikeouts and just a 1.00 WHIP. He’ll be opposed by Seattle’s Luis Castillo (0-0, 9.00 ERA), who’s struggled out of the gate, allowing eight runs in as many innings while posting a 2.67 WHIP.
Team Trends:
The Mariners are 4-5 at home but just 4-8 overall, and they’re winless in games where they’ve scored five or more runs (0-2), highlighting inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Astros have won three of five on the road and hold a 5-3 record when they out-hit their opponents.
Both lineups have cooled off over the last 10 games. Seattle is batting .203 during that stretch with a 3-7 record, while Houston hasn’t fared much better, hitting .198 and going 4-6. Both clubs have been outscored by 11 runs in that span.
Players to Watch:
Jorge Polanco has been a bright spot for Seattle, going 10-for-24 with two home runs and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. Julio Rodríguez continues to be a power threat with three homers and a triple. For Houston, Jose Altuve leads the team with three home runs, and Isaac Paredes has started to string together quality at-bats.
Betting Line:
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Mariners -128, Astros +108; over/under is 7 runs.
With both teams hungry to build momentum, Wednesday's matinee could come down to which starter settles in early—and whether either offense can finally break through.
Here's a look at the Astros lineup for today's finale.
The Astros against Luis F. Castillo: Altuve DH, Paredes 5, Alvarez 7, Walker 3, Peña 6, Caratini 2, Rodgers 4, Meyers 8, Smith 9
Brown RHP
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 9, 2025
Jose Altuve will get some rest in the DH spot, with Yordan Alvarez playing left field. Victor Caratini will get the start at catcher after providing the game-winning hit on Tuesday night. Cam Smith is starting again in right field after collecting his first big league RBI in Game 2.
*ChatGPT assisted.
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If you were hoping the Houston Astros could survive their injury avalanche without reinforcements, this past week should shake that optimism. Getting swept at home by the lowly Oakland Athletics isn’t just an embarrassment, it’s a warning flare straight to GM Dana Brown’s office.
Yes, this was a wake-up call. Houston’s offense is simply too depleted to keep treading water while waiting for reinforcements. The moment Isaac Paredes went down with a hamstring injury, the offense unraveled, and the numbers back it up. In the seven days since losing their best power bat, the Astros rank 28th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 25th in OPS and 20th in batting average. That’s a drastic drop-off for a team that ranks second in batting average and 12th in OPS on the season.
And it’s not just Paredes’ absence. Cam Smith, one of the Astros' brightest early-season surprises, is stuck in a deep slump. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .087. Stretch that to 15 games, and he’s at .140 with a .175 slugging percentage. That's not a cold streak — that’s a free fall. Perhaps giving him a regular spot in the batting order might provide more stability for the rookie.
Help is on the way!
So is there any hope left? In theory, yes. The pitching cavalry is on the way. Spencer Arrighetti has one more rehab start before returning. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are expected to follow soon after. JP France isn’t far off either. On paper, that could give Houston the rotation depth needed for another deep October push.
But theory only takes you so far. Injuries continue to mount. Just days after praising the rotation’s resilience, Brendan Rodgers showed up with elbow inflammation and Lance McCullers Jr. landed on the IL with blister issues. If the reinforcements don’t all arrive — and perform — without setbacks, the Astros could be in real trouble.
Yordan Alvarez’s situation adds another layer of anxiety. Dana Brown might be tempted to rush him back at less than full strength, and while 75% of Yordan may still be better than some of the current options, it’s a risky bet. One wrong step could lead to a setback that erases any hope of getting him at all when it matters most.
So no, Brown can’t afford to sit on his hands at the deadline. In fact, this may be the most pivotal deadline of his tenure. With Framber Valdez likely in his final stretch in Houston and the rotation still featuring two frontline arms, the window is now.
Whether or not Brown is allowed to spend aggressively could ultimately depend on Jim Crane’s willingness to cross the luxury tax line. If he greenlights an aggressive push, the Astros have enough upside, even with the injuries, to go for it. But a quiet deadline may signal that the front office sees this team as a year away.
Bottom line: if the Astros truly believe they can get Yordan and several arms back in time for a playoff push, now is the moment to act. Because after a weekend like this, it’s clear the current version of the roster isn’t enough. We'll get our answer by Thursday's deadline.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional LIVE episode this Thursday!
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*ChatGPT assisted.
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