WINNING BLUEPRINT
Critical factors that give Astros the edge in series finale with Mariners
Apr 9, 2025, 12:58 pm
A big game from Yordan Alvarez would come in handy. Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images.
Houston Astros (5-6) at Seattle Mariners (4-8)
Wednesday, 4:10 p.m. EDT, T-Mobile Park
The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners meet Wednesday afternoon to wrap up their three-game series, each looking to leave with a much-needed win. The teams have split the first two games, setting up a pivotal rubber match between two AL West foes still trying to find their footing in the early going.
Pitching Matchup:
Houston hands the ball to Hunter Brown (1-1, 3.00 ERA), who’s been sharp through his first two outings with 15 strikeouts and just a 1.00 WHIP. He’ll be opposed by Seattle’s Luis Castillo (0-0, 9.00 ERA), who’s struggled out of the gate, allowing eight runs in as many innings while posting a 2.67 WHIP.
Team Trends:
The Mariners are 4-5 at home but just 4-8 overall, and they’re winless in games where they’ve scored five or more runs (0-2), highlighting inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Astros have won three of five on the road and hold a 5-3 record when they out-hit their opponents.
Both lineups have cooled off over the last 10 games. Seattle is batting .203 during that stretch with a 3-7 record, while Houston hasn’t fared much better, hitting .198 and going 4-6. Both clubs have been outscored by 11 runs in that span.
Players to Watch:
Jorge Polanco has been a bright spot for Seattle, going 10-for-24 with two home runs and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. Julio Rodríguez continues to be a power threat with three homers and a triple. For Houston, Jose Altuve leads the team with three home runs, and Isaac Paredes has started to string together quality at-bats.
Betting Line:
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Mariners -128, Astros +108; over/under is 7 runs.
With both teams hungry to build momentum, Wednesday's matinee could come down to which starter settles in early—and whether either offense can finally break through.
Here's a look at the Astros lineup for today's finale.
The Astros against Luis F. Castillo: Altuve DH, Paredes 5, Alvarez 7, Walker 3, Peña 6, Caratini 2, Rodgers 4, Meyers 8, Smith 9
Brown RHP
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 9, 2025
Jose Altuve will get some rest in the DH spot, with Yordan Alvarez playing left field. Victor Caratini will get the start at catcher after providing the game-winning hit on Tuesday night. Cam Smith is starting again in right field after collecting his first big league RBI in Game 2.
*ChatGPT assisted.
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After dropping a frustrating series to the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros find themselves in a familiar position—searching for answers, but still within striking distance. Despite their inconsistency, Houston sits just three games behind the AL West-leading Mariners, who are currently 7 games over .500 and riding an 8-2 stretch. For as up-and-down as the Astros have been, the division remains tantalizingly close.
That inconsistency was on full display throughout the White Sox series. Jake Meyers and Zach Dezenzo each played the roles of both hero and heartbreaker. Dezenzo launched a massive home run in Game 3, a moment that energized the dugout and briefly shifted momentum. But his costly defensive error later in the game flipped the script. Meyers was a spark plug in Houston’s lone win, delivering a clutch performance at the plate, only to run the team out of a rally in the finale when he was picked off second—right before Jeremy Peña ripped what would have been an RBI single.
Jose Altuve’s struggles are quietly becoming more worrisome. He’s recorded just one multi-hit game since April 19 and has only one homer since April 8. On Sunday, he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had grinded through a 33-pitch inning—a decision that raised questions about his awareness in a veteran moment. Should manager Joe Espada have reminded Altuve of the situation? Or is this on Altuve, who should have known what to do as one of the team leaders?
Signs of life
There are flickers of life from the bats. Last week, Houston's team OPS was an underwhelming .667 (23rd in MLB), with a slugging percentage of .357 (25th). They've nudged those numbers up to .684 (19th) and .370 (21st), respectively. It’s modest progress, but enough to suggest this offense might be trending in the right direction. Still, their 5-5 record over the last 10 games feels emblematic of who they are right now—a .500 team with both talent and flaws.
Looking ahead
The upcoming schedule could be a turning point. Three of the next five opponents have losing records, and none of them are elite. This stretch offers a prime opportunity for Houston to finally build momentum and close the gap in the division—assuming the Mariners cool off from their current tear, which seems inevitable given their unsustainable 8-2 pace.
McCullers is officially back!
Lance McCullers returned for the first time since 2022 and, despite being limited to 3.2 innings due to command issues (three walks and a hit batter), there were encouraging signs. His velocity was there, and the stuff looked sharp. It’s a start, and perhaps a step toward stabilizing a rotation that still needs length.
Steering the ship
Manager Joe Espada, however, continues to draw scrutiny. His decision-making in the finale raised eyebrows again. Giving Isaac Paredes a day off when Yordan Alvarez was already sitting left the lineup depleted. Rather than using promising young infielder/outfielder Cam Smith, he opted for Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers—a defensive combo that didn't inspire confidence. It feels at times like Espada isn’t prioritizing winning the final game of a series, a pattern that could haunt the team down the stretch.
The plot thickens
Meanwhile, Christian Walker’s slump is dragging on. He went 0-for-5 twice in the last two series and looks out of sync at the plate. The Astros need more from their power hitters if they hope to make a real run. And with Alvarez now heading to the IL with hand inflammation, runs will be even harder to come by.
All told, this team still feels like one hovering just above or below .500. But in a division that remains wide open, the path forward is clear: play better, hope the Mariners come back to earth, and capitalize on a soft schedule. The race is far from over—but it’s time for Houston to start acting like contenders.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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