WINNING BLUEPRINT

Critical factors that give Astros the edge in series finale with Mariners

Astros Yordan Alvarez
A big game from Yordan Alvarez would come in handy. Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images.

Houston Astros (5-6) at Seattle Mariners (4-8)
Wednesday, 4:10 p.m. EDT, T-Mobile Park

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners meet Wednesday afternoon to wrap up their three-game series, each looking to leave with a much-needed win. The teams have split the first two games, setting up a pivotal rubber match between two AL West foes still trying to find their footing in the early going.

Pitching Matchup:
Houston hands the ball to Hunter Brown (1-1, 3.00 ERA), who’s been sharp through his first two outings with 15 strikeouts and just a 1.00 WHIP. He’ll be opposed by Seattle’s Luis Castillo (0-0, 9.00 ERA), who’s struggled out of the gate, allowing eight runs in as many innings while posting a 2.67 WHIP.

Team Trends:
The Mariners are 4-5 at home but just 4-8 overall, and they’re winless in games where they’ve scored five or more runs (0-2), highlighting inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Astros have won three of five on the road and hold a 5-3 record when they out-hit their opponents.

Both lineups have cooled off over the last 10 games. Seattle is batting .203 during that stretch with a 3-7 record, while Houston hasn’t fared much better, hitting .198 and going 4-6. Both clubs have been outscored by 11 runs in that span.

Players to Watch:
Jorge Polanco has been a bright spot for Seattle, going 10-for-24 with two home runs and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. Julio Rodríguez continues to be a power threat with three homers and a triple. For Houston, Jose Altuve leads the team with three home runs, and Isaac Paredes has started to string together quality at-bats.

Betting Line:
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Mariners -128, Astros +108; over/under is 7 runs.

With both teams hungry to build momentum, Wednesday's matinee could come down to which starter settles in early—and whether either offense can finally break through.

Here's a look at the Astros lineup for today's finale.

Jose Altuve will get some rest in the DH spot, with Yordan Alvarez playing left field. Victor Caratini will get the start at catcher after providing the game-winning hit on Tuesday night. Cam Smith is starting again in right field after collecting his first big league RBI in Game 2.


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Jabari Smith agreed to a new contract with Houston. Photo via: Wiki Commons.

Power forward Jabari Smith Jr. is expected to sign a five-year, $122 million rookie contract extension with Houston, according to a report from ESPN.

The deal is reportedly fully guaranteed and would keep Smith in a Rockets uniform through the 2030–31 season.

Smith, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, averaged 12.2 points and seven rebounds last season, starting 39 of the 57 games he played. While injuries and inconsistency limited his minutes at times, the 21-year-old showed flashes of the two-way potential that made him a top lottery pick, and someone the Rockets clearly see as part of their long-term foundation.

The move signals continued trust in the franchise’s young core and a commitment to internal development as Houston builds toward sustained playoff contention.

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