FACT VS. FICTION
Sorting fact from fiction after Houston Astros troubling start
Apr 3, 2024, 6:29 pm
It's not time to panic! Composite Getty Image.
The Astros have been ahead or tied in the seventh inning of all six games they’ve played this season.
They’re 1-5, including Tuesday night gut-punch 2-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.
So obviously there is trouble in River City. A team is its record. But there’s nothing about the Astros that won’t correct itself over the long haul. A 1-5 start is worrisome to be sure, but it’s not a death knell. There will be more 0-4 losing streaks and 1-5 stretches over a 162-game season.
The weirdest thing swirling around sports talk radio, mainly on the caller side of the dialog is … did the Astros make a mistake letting former manager Dusty Baker go and hiring inexperienced Joe Espada?
Let’s set the record straight - that is crazy talk.
Remember last season when fickle, memory-challenged fans groaned when Baker insisted on starting Martin Maldonado at catcher over hot-hitting rookie Yanier Diaz? Baker said that one day Diaz would thank him for that. Remember the frustration with Baker, seemingly in a pique of ego, sitting Chas McCormick? Remember Baker dissing the fans during talk show appearances, saying “if you listen to the fans, pretty soon you’ll be sitting with them?” It’s OK for a manager to think that, just don’t say it.
So while the Astros 1-5 record is down, let’s look up.
Yanier Diaz is hitting.476. Fans have practically turned him into a folk hero. They remember last year how Dusty, some might say, took out his anger with management by sitting Diaz on the bench. During Tuesday night’s “Fan Poll” on the Astros telecast, the question was, which player’s fast start has you most excited? The overwhelming winner was Yanier Diaz.
Meanwhile, Maldonado is up to his old tricks in Chicago where he is batting a robust .000 with no hits in 11 at bats as the White Sox starting catcher. It’s not a challenge to imagine, if Baker had been retained in Houston, that Maldy would be the starting catcher here with Diaz wasting away again.
The starting pitching, thought to be a weakness heading into the season, has been excellent. The rotation’s earned run average, including Ronel Blanco’s no-hitter Monday and Framber Valdez’s seven-plus inning of shutout ball Tuesday, is at the top of all MLB teams.
Jose Altuve is back doing Jose Altuve things. Jeremy Pena is hitting .381 and fielding lights out. Kyle Tucker is hitting .318 and ready to break the Astros bank for a long-term deal.
This isn’t to ignore the fact that Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman need to get their bats going, and the bullpen better get its act together. The bullpen, supposedly the Astros strength especially in the seventh inning on, is a crime scene.
But the most glaring sore thumb is at first base where Jose Abreu is becoming the Astros 2024 version of Martin Maldonado 2.0.
Abreu, who signed a three-year $58.5 million contract with the Astros last year, is batting .105, with only two singles, no RBI and six strikeouts in 19 at-bats. In 2024, coming off the worst season of his career last year, Abreu is a no-tool guy. It’s painful watching Abreu flail at low outside pitches. He has difficulty catching up to big league fastballs. Fans groan at him striking out with runners on base in key spots, like Tuesday night in the ninth inning. He looks done.
How much longer will Espada stick with Abreu? Earlier this week, on a national broadcast, an announcer was lauding Abreu’s grit, saying, “He refuses to miss a game.” Seriously? Who’s minding the store around here? I heard a fan tell me, while defending Abreu mind you … “his replacement is worse.”
Will Espada die on the Jose Abreu Hill like Baker did last year with Maldonado?
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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