Opportunity knocks for Astros with spring expectations running high
Feb 6, 2025, 6:20 pm
Can Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown build on last season? Composite Getty Image.
Pharrell Williams is ringing in my ears. Why? Because I’m happy of course (2013 music reference)! Less than one week to spring training opening for the Astros in West Palm Beach. The pitchers and catchers are required to report a few days before the rest. A number of guys among the rest will arrive early, but let’s focus on some pitcher/catcher issues. Catchers first.
We know Yainer Diaz is the primary starter, with Victor Caratini a solid complement in the final year of his two-year contract. Diaz had a fine season overall in his first as the primary backstop, but he has a couple of clear areas that need improvement if stardom is to be on his horizon. His pitch-framing metrics were poor. Maybe it’s as simple as more experience under the belt improving them. At the plate, Yainer brings major value for what he does when doing it as a catcher. Still, to be a bonafide great offensive catcher, Diaz needs to rediscover more of the home run power he displayed as a rookie. In 2023 Diaz smashed 23 home runs in 355 at bats. In 2024 he had 230 more at bats, and hit seven fewer home runs. He had a 30-game midseason homer drought (immediately after going deep in four consecutive games), and then went the final 31 games of the season (29 plus the two playoff losses) without clearing a fence. Diaz did bat .309 over those 61 games so it’s not as if he turned into Martin Maldonado, but you want some more sock from a guy batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. Diaz’s slugging percentage tumbled from .531 to .448. Among catchers overall, 16 homers and the .766 OPS he posted in 2024 is fine, but that is not a great offensive player overall. The other area where Yainer needs a step up is plate discipline. With his 585 at bats last year he walked only a pitiful 24 times. As a result, despite his excellent .299 batting average Diaz’s on-base percentage was just .325. Jon Singleton posted a .321 OBP while batting .234.
Caratini is a solid pro whose switch-hitting adds flexibility. He was sensational as a pinch-hitter albeit in just 19 at bats (8-19, .421). Manager Joe Espada has some playing time juggling to do. Free agent signee Christian Walker will play almost every day at first base when healthy. Diaz or Caratini getting starts there will be very limited. Yordan Alvarez targeted for fewer starts in left field gobbles up more designated hitter games. However, if Jose Altuve winds up splitting his defensive time between second base and left field, closing in on his 35th birthday in May, a few more days at DH for him would make sense.
On the mound, barring injury the starting rotation is set. Off of their 2024 performances Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco are as solid a one-two-three punch as there is in the American League. Only unanimously-voted American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal posted a better qualifying earned run average (2.39) than Blanco’s 2.80 and Valdez’s 2.91. After tweaking his arsenal following an atrocious opening seven-start stretch to his season, Brown posted a 2.46 ERA the rest of the way. Framber may have a couple hundred million dollars riding on his 2025 performance as barring an extension he heads toward free agency. Will Brown and Blanco’s performance hold up after each set professional career highs in innings pitched? The fourth rotation spot initially goes to Spencer Arrighetti, who showed much promise pitching to a 3.18 earned run average after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski has first dibs on the fifth spot. The Cy-Fair high school grad and Sam Houston State product flashes some solid stuff, but absolutely must do a better job keeping his pitches in the ballpark. In 190 big league innings pitched Wesneski has been hammered for 35 home runs. In 2024 he showed so improvement in that area yielding 12 dingers in 67 2/3 innings.
The two sure things at so far as bullpen roles are concerned are Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Hader’s seasons in one word from 2020-2024: Meh, stupendous, atrocious, phenomenal, mediocre. The odd years have been the fabulous ones. Abreu moves up the totem pole with the salary dump (eight and a half of 14 million anyway) trade of Ryan Pressly. After Hader and Pressly most tickets are punched. Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan King all figure to have spots. The 32-year-old Scott faded over the last two months after having blown away anything he’d done previously in MLB. The 33-year-old Ort also way outpitched his prior big league resume. Former mega-prospect Whitley is out of minor league options and opportunity knocks. King appears the only definitely makes the club lefty reliever.
Spring training doors open next week. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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Following the Astros meeting with the media on Tuesday, where GM Dana Brown made it seem like the team had already moved on from Alex Bregman, we received some interesting news on the free agency front.
Pete Alonso (who shares the same agent as Bregman) agreed to a much shorter contract than many expected. Alonso elected to return to the Mets on a two-year prove-it deal.
Which had many wondering if Bregman would do something similar. However, Bob Nightengale reported that despite the Alonso news, Bregman is still seeking a six or seven-year contract.
Which is curious because the only reported offer of six years, has come from the Astros. We're also hearing that the Cubs are very interested in Bregman, but aren't looking to commit to more than four years, with opt-outs.
If Bregman is indeed considering betting on himself and looking to take another stab at free agency in 2026, the Cubs sound like a poor choice.
ESPN's “Hembo” made a convincing case that a right-handed hitter specializing in hitting doubles couldn't play in a worse ballpark than Wrigley Field, according to Baseball Savant. Bregman no longer has the fly ball potency he once had, and Wrigley doesn't have a short porch in left field like in Houston.
According to the analytics, Bregman would be way better served playing in Toronto or Boston. Two environments much better suited for his swing if he's looking to boost his value for 2026.
Altuve playing the field
Although the Astros didn’t sign any infielders in free agency, it seems they still plan to have him log some time in left field. Which got me thinking. Perhaps the Astros would like to use Mauricio Dubon at second base when their two elite ground ball pitchers (Framer Valdez, Hunter Brown) are taking the hill. This would keep Altuve and Yordan Alvarez's bats in the lineup, with a better defensive option at second base.
Outfield depth acquired
We certainly don't expect to see Altuve play exclusively in left field, so they had to add to the position. This week, Houston decided to bring Ben Gamel back on a one-year deal.
Pitching infusion
GM Dana Brown shared an update on the health of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia this week, and was very excited about the progress McCullers is making, now throwing off a mound and touching 90mph.
Manager Joe Espada said he didn't want to commit on what role McCullers would have, leaving the door open for him to be used out of the bullpen.
Which caught our attention, as it sounds a little scary asking McCullers to quickly warmup, and enter a game in relief considering his history of arm issues.
We feel it's more likely they wouldn't ask him to come in with traffic on the bases. Perhaps he would be used to piggyback a starter for a couple of innings. Which would allow them to let him know ahead of time how he would be used that day. Thus, giving him ample time to get loose.
The news about Garcia wasn't nearly as positive, he's still throwing off flat ground, with pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in a week.
The team is also not ruling out the return of Cristian Javier late in the season, after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024. But that seems a little over ambitious to us based on how slowly McCullers and Garcia have taken to heal.
We believe it's more likely the Astros are planning on letting Framber Valdez walk in free agency, and banking on Hunter Brown and Javier to be the two-headed monster at the top of the rotation in 2026. Rushing Javier back, who they've already paid big money to, doesn't sound like a wise move when looking at the big picture.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we discuss the latest Bregman developments, Altuve playing left field several times a week, what a healthy McCullers would mean for the rotation, and much more!
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!