THE PALLILOG
Opportunity knocks for Astros with spring expectations running high
Feb 6, 2025, 6:20 pm
THE PALLILOG
Pharrell Williams is ringing in my ears. Why? Because I’m happy of course (2013 music reference)! Less than one week to spring training opening for the Astros in West Palm Beach. The pitchers and catchers are required to report a few days before the rest. A number of guys among the rest will arrive early, but let’s focus on some pitcher/catcher issues. Catchers first.
We know Yainer Diaz is the primary starter, with Victor Caratini a solid complement in the final year of his two-year contract. Diaz had a fine season overall in his first as the primary backstop, but he has a couple of clear areas that need improvement if stardom is to be on his horizon. His pitch-framing metrics were poor. Maybe it’s as simple as more experience under the belt improving them. At the plate, Yainer brings major value for what he does when doing it as a catcher. Still, to be a bonafide great offensive catcher, Diaz needs to rediscover more of the home run power he displayed as a rookie. In 2023 Diaz smashed 23 home runs in 355 at bats. In 2024 he had 230 more at bats, and hit seven fewer home runs. He had a 30-game midseason homer drought (immediately after going deep in four consecutive games), and then went the final 31 games of the season (29 plus the two playoff losses) without clearing a fence. Diaz did bat .309 over those 61 games so it’s not as if he turned into Martin Maldonado, but you want more sock from a guy batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. Diaz’s slugging percentage tumbled from .531 to .448. Among catchers overall, 16 homers and the .766 OPS he posted in 2024 is fine, but that is not a great offensive player overall. The other area where Yainer needs a step up is plate discipline. With his 585 at bats last year he walked only a pitiful 24 times. As a result, despite his excellent .299 batting average Diaz’s on-base percentage was just .325. Jon Singleton posted a .321 OBP while batting .234.
Caratini is a solid pro whose switch-hitting adds flexibility. He was sensational as a pinch-hitter albeit in just 19 at bats (8-19, .421). Manager Joe Espada has some playing time juggling to do. Free agent signee Christian Walker will play almost every day at first base when healthy. Diaz or Caratini getting starts there will be very limited. Yordan Alvarez targeted for fewer starts in left field gobbles up more designated hitter games. However Jose Altuve winds up splitting his defensive time between second base and left field, closing in on his 35th birthday in May, using him at DH about once per week would make sense.
On the mound, barring injury the starting rotation is set. Off of their 2024 performances Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco are as solid a one-two-three punch as there is in the American League. Only unanimously-voted American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal posted a better qualifying earned run average (2.39) than Blanco’s 2.80 and Valdez’s 2.91. After tweaking his arsenal following an atrocious opening seven-start stretch to his season, Brown posted a 2.46 ERA the rest of the way. Framber may have a couple hundred million dollars riding on his 2025 performance as barring an extension he heads toward free agency. Will Brown and Blanco’s performance hold up after each set professional career highs in innings pitched? The fourth rotation spot initially goes to Spencer Arrighetti, who showed much promise pitching to a 3.18 ERA after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski has first dibs on the fifth spot. The Cy-Fair high school grad and Sam Houston State product flashes some solid stuff, but absolutely must do a better job keeping his pitches in the ballpark. In 190 big league innings pitched Wesneski has been hammered for 35 home runs. In 2024 he showed so improvement in that area yielding 12 dingers in 67 2/3 innings.
The two sure things so far as bullpen roles are concerned are Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Hader’s seasons in one word from 2020-2024: Meh, stupendous, atrocious, phenomenal, mediocre. The odd years have been the fabulous ones. Abreu moves up the totem pole with the salary dump (eight and a half of 14 million anyway) trade of Ryan Pressly. After Hader and Abreu most tickets are punched. Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan King all figure to have spots. The 32-year-old Scott faded over the last two months after having blown away anything he’d done previously in MLB. The 33-year-old Ort also way outpitched his prior big league resume. Former mega-prospect Whitley is out of minor league options, and opportunity knocks. King appears the only definitely makes the club lefty reliever.
Spring training doors open next week. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Astros closed out their latest road trip with a winning record, a feat made more impressive considering the turbulence at the back of the rotation. Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto both endured rough outings, with Walter in particular getting tagged hard. Still, Houston salvaged the finale, thanks largely to Mauricio Dubón’s breakout performance. The utilityman launched two home runs to power an offense that’s quietly been heating up for weeks.
But even with a solid finish, not everything is trending upward.
Josh Hader, who’s been one of the game’s most reliable closers this season, has begun to show signs of vulnerability. He’s allowed a home run in three of his last six outings. While his overall numbers remain strong, the long ball—a problem that plagued him last year—is starting to creep back into the picture.
As the Astros return home, the schedule offers no breather. They’ll face the Phillies and Cubs before a brief trip to Colorado to take on the struggling Rockies. After that comes a marquee series against the defending champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. With three of their next four opponents being legitimate World Series threats, the coming stretch looms large.
Can the bats keep pace?
If the last month is any indication, the Astros have reason to feel optimistic. Christian Walker has started to show signs of life after a quiet start to the season, hitting .260 with a .762 OPS and five home runs over the past 30 days. José Altuve has been scorching with a .302 average and .901 OPS in that span, while Jeremy Peña has taken things to another level, batting .384 with a 1.009 OPS.
As a team, the Astros rank 7th in OPS, 5th in runs, 3rd in batting average, and 7th in home runs over the last 30 days. It’s a surge that’s come at the right time—and one they’ll need to sustain.
The injury picture is also starting to shift in Houston’s favor.
Cristian Javier threw a 20-pitch live BP today in West Palm Beach. According to Joe Espada, he was up to 95 mph.
Luis Garcia should throw a live BP next week.
Spencer Arrighetti is still not throwing off a mound yet.
Yordan Alvarez has not resumed hitting.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 20, 2025
Joe Espada told The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Christian Javier recently threw a live batting practice session, touching 95 mph as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. JP France has thrown multiple live BPs and could be ready to help if things continue to progress with his shoulder. Luis Garcia, however, remains further away despite undergoing surgery more than two years ago. He's expected to throw a live BP this week.
Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) should be able to return in August, and Lance McCullers has resumed throwing and is currently on the 15-day IL with a foot sprain.
The Astros are winning. The offense is rolling. The reinforcements are on the way. But with a brutal stretch looming, the team’s margin for error is about to be put to the test.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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