THE PALLILOG
Filtered for your Astros pleasure: Spring Training must-watch stories unveiled
Feb 22, 2024, 2:36 pm
The Astros open square off against the Nationals on Saturday. Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images.
The Astros open their Grapefruit League schedule Saturday against the Washington Nationals at the spring training park they share in West Palm Beach. This does not induce goosebumps but we’ll take it since it means the regular season opener is little more than a month away. In 2017 the Astros moved their spring training base east from Kissimmee, the Nationals moved theirs south from Viera. Dusty Baker was the Nationals’ manager that year. 2017 worked out pretty well for the Astros. Dusty got fired after the 2017 season, which in time worked out pretty well for him too. Two years later the Nationals won their first World Series (no need to recap how). In the four seasons since the Astros and Nationals have been pretty much diametrically opposed. For the Astros it’s been another World Series title, four more American League Championship Series appearances, and three more AL West crowns. For the Nats, four consecutive last place finishes in the National League East. Washington’s 71-91 record last season was its best record of the last four seasons. The Astros certainly expect more excellence in 2024. No one expects the Nationals to not stink again this year. I mean, name three current Nationals. Good luck.
Hope springs eternal
Winning and losing in spring training is of no consequence. We’ll hear stories about “building winning expectations, culture, and environment” and other flim-flam. The team results are meaningless. They are not predictive of the regular season ahead. Best spring training record in Florida last year? The Cardinals, who went on to produce their worst season in 28 years. Best spring training record in Arizona last year? The Angels, who went on to be, the Angels.
Individual player statistics aren’t a big deal either, other than where they help guys win big league jobs. You may recall that for a stretch last spring training, Justin Dirden was all the rage at Astros’ camp. He was pounding the ball, batting over .300 with eye-opening power that produced an OPS over 1.000! Dirden didn’t make the big club and went on to have a poor season at AAA Sugar Land. So results should be taken with many grains of salt, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t developments worth tracking and fun to follow.
Being as good as they are, among non-pitchers the Astros have very few roster spots up for grabs, but here are a couple of spring training storylines…
How will the pendulum swing on Jeremy Pena with his retooled swing? Pena had a solid rookie season followed by a superstar postseason. He was great in spring training last year (see what I mean?) then had a lackluster sophomore season. Leaving the financials out of it, there are several American League shortstops you’d take over Pena for 2024. Corey Seager, Bobby Witt Jr., Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, and Gunnar Henderson all were obviously better players last season (note that Carlos Correa is not on that list). Witt, Bichette, and Rookie of the Year winner Henderson are all younger than Pena. If Pena winds up the sixth or seventh-best shortstop in the AL that’s a solid starter, but he needs to make a notable leap if there is star level production in his future.
The disappearance of Pena’s power was near total as last year went along. He hit six home runs by the end of April then just four more the rest of the season, not one after July 5. That said, Pena had a fabulous month of August when he hit .333 while drawing more walks than he did in any two other months combined. If Pena can pair his .324 on base percentage of 2023 (it was .289 in ’22) with 2022’s .426 slugging percentage (which plunged to .381 last year) everyone who roots for the Astros should be pleased. That would not be anything approaching a stud offensive player but fine for a guy who should slot eighth in the batting order. A .750 OPS combined with strong defense is a good shortstop.
It seems few believe in the guy who probably bats ninth opening day, Jake Meyers. That he works cheap is definitely a reason the Astros intend to give Meyers a shot as the primary center fielder. It is simple truth that Meyers has been a lousy offensive player the last two years. In 605 at bats as an Astro he has struck out a whopping 192 times. Nevertheless, Meyers should still give the Astros more production out of the nine-hole than did Martin Maldonado. The defensive metrics say Meyers is an excellent glove man, despite having more of a noodle arm than a rifle.
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A mention that our second season of the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is off and running. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: Stone Cold 'Stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”
The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.
While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.
There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.
General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…
Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”
Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.