Day one of Astros’ spring training certainly turned out to be more newsy than day one usually is.

Justin Verlander having had some shoulder discomfort that puts him in his words “a little bit behind schedule” isn't flat out ominous but isn't great. Verlander is a couple weeks behind to be more specific. Every little bit counts especially at 40 years old, so Verlander’s availability to start the regular season on time is clearly a question mark. If Verlander can’t answer the season opening bell it’s no big deal…so long as his Hall of Fame right arm is fine after that. Saving some treadwear on the tires could be helpful later in the season.

Verlander’s days of making 30-plus starts in a season are finished. In building his Cooperstown resume Verlander was spectacularly durable, making at least 30 starts in 13 out of 14 seasons starting with his 2006 Rookie of the Year campaign. Before blowing out his elbow in his lone start of the COVID-delayed 2020 season, 2015 was the only year Verlander spent time on the injured list. Verlander is still very good but Father Time has made incursions. In his incredible third Cy Young Award-winning 2022 season with the Astros Verlander made 28 starts, missing time to a calf issue. His 2023 launch with the Mets was delayed a month because of a shoulder problem. He wound up making 27 starts and pitching 162 innings last season. The Astros would be delighted if JV could match those numbers in 2024. 140 innings is a key marker. If Verlander gets there, a 35 million dollar option becomes his for 2025.

J.P. France also showed up in West Palm Beach dealing with shoulder inflammation. France was a revelation last year before fading down the stretch. Honestly, he was likely over his head before that. It’s quite optimistic to think of France as an excellent number four starter behind Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier.

Speaking of guys who faded down the stretch last year, hello Framber. Valdez’s 3.07 earned run average through August 1 (the day he no-hit the Cleveland Guardians) ballooned to a 4.29 mark covering his last 10 starts, then he stunk in two of his three postseason starts while being merely below average in the third. It’s only from seeing a couple of images from Wednesday, but Framber appears noticeably slimmer. From “La Grasa” to “El Delgado?” Did a weight issue impact Valdez’s decline last season? Can’t say for sure, but as a general rule would you rather place your bet for sustained quality performance on someone in top physical condition or someone not in top physical condition? The weight question could plausibly apply to Cristian Javier as well.

The other two guys slotted for starting rotation roles carry their own questions. Hunter Brown’s rookie season was ultimately a disappointment. After a strong April with a 2.74 ERA, Brown basically stunk the rest of the way with a 5.74 ERA. From July 1 to the end of the regular season the ERA was a horrifying 6.95. Those are the numbers of someone who without improvement belongs in the minor leagues. Solid to significant improvement is needed. He has the stuff to make it happen. Then there is Jose Urquidy who comes off an injury-hampered unimpressive season.

With Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers not returning from their injuries until at least midseason, the Astros’ rotation looks shakier heading into the season than it has in years. Yet it still looks better than where the Texas Rangers’ rotation is at right now.

Man with a plan

New skipper Joe Espada wasted no time in confirming what seemed pretty obvious. Newly acquired Josh Hader is the Astros’ new closer. Hader wasn’t signed to a five year 95 million dollar contract to be a setup man. He’s a pretty safe bet to work out better for the Astros than did the last flamethrowing lefty closer they acquired. That was Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams.” After giving up Joe Carter’s 1993 World Series winning home run, Williams was dealt from Philadelphia to Houston. Williams was a disaster. He lived down to his nickname by walking 24 batters in 20 innings in compiling a 7.65 ERA over 25 outings.

Hader becoming the primary ninth inning man is a demotion for Ryan Pressly but nothing catastrophic. Pressly’s role is still significant and his 14 million dollar option for 2025 becomes guaranteed based upon appearances not saves. Pressly gets the 14 mil next year if he appears in 50 regular season games this year. Pressly pitched in 65 games in 2023. In fact, he has reached the 50 appearances plateau in each of the last seven full schedule seasons.

Hader makes 19 million dollars this season. Pressly pulls down 14 million. Bryan Abreu has to get by on 1.75 million in this his first season of salary arbitration eligibility. The Astros control Abreu’s rights through the 2026 season.