THE PALLILOG
How latest Astros reports have all eyes on Houston's most important hurlers
Feb 15, 2024, 2:23 pm
The Astros need bounce-back seasons from Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez. Composite Getty Image.
Day one of Astros’ spring training certainly turned out to be more newsy than day one usually is.
Justin Verlander having had some shoulder discomfort that puts him in his words “a little bit behind schedule” isn't flat out ominous but isn't great. Verlander is a couple weeks behind to be more specific. Every little bit counts especially at 40 years old, so Verlander’s availability to start the regular season on time is clearly a question mark. If Verlander can’t answer the season opening bell it’s no big deal…so long as his Hall of Fame right arm is fine after that. Saving some treadwear on the tires could be helpful later in the season.
Verlander’s days of making 30-plus starts in a season are finished. In building his Cooperstown resume Verlander was spectacularly durable, making at least 30 starts in 13 out of 14 seasons starting with his 2006 Rookie of the Year campaign. Before blowing out his elbow in his lone start of the COVID-delayed 2020 season, 2015 was the only year Verlander spent time on the injured list. Verlander is still very good but Father Time has made incursions. In his incredible third Cy Young Award-winning 2022 season with the Astros Verlander made 28 starts, missing time to a calf issue. His 2023 launch with the Mets was delayed a month because of a shoulder problem. He wound up making 27 starts and pitching 162 innings last season. The Astros would be delighted if JV could match those numbers in 2024. 140 innings is a key marker. If Verlander gets there, a 35 million dollar option becomes his for 2025.
J.P. France also showed up in West Palm Beach dealing with shoulder inflammation. France was a revelation last year before fading down the stretch. Honestly, he was likely over his head before that. It’s quite optimistic to think of France as an excellent number four starter behind Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier.
Speaking of guys who faded down the stretch last year, hello Framber. Valdez’s 3.07 earned run average through August 1 (the day he no-hit the Cleveland Guardians) ballooned to a 4.29 mark covering his last 10 starts, then he stunk in two of his three postseason starts while being merely below average in the third. It’s only from seeing a couple of images from Wednesday, but Framber appears noticeably slimmer. From “La Grasa” to “El Delgado?” Did a weight issue impact Valdez’s decline last season? Can’t say for sure, but as a general rule would you rather place your bet for sustained quality performance on someone in top physical condition or someone not in top physical condition? The weight question could plausibly apply to Cristian Javier as well.
The other two guys slotted for starting rotation roles carry their own questions. Hunter Brown’s rookie season was ultimately a disappointment. After a strong April with a 2.74 ERA, Brown basically stunk the rest of the way with a 5.74 ERA. From July 1 to the end of the regular season the ERA was a horrifying 6.95. Those are the numbers of someone who without improvement belongs in the minor leagues. Solid to significant improvement is needed. He has the stuff to make it happen. Then there is Jose Urquidy who comes off an injury-hampered unimpressive season.
With Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers not returning from their injuries until at least midseason, the Astros’ rotation looks shakier heading into the season than it has in years. Yet it still looks better than where the Texas Rangers’ rotation is at right now.
Man with a plan
New skipper Joe Espada wasted no time in confirming what seemed pretty obvious. Newly acquired Josh Hader is the Astros’ new closer. Hader wasn’t signed to a five year 95 million dollar contract to be a setup man. He’s a pretty safe bet to work out better for the Astros than did the last flamethrowing lefty closer they acquired. That was Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams.” After giving up Joe Carter’s 1993 World Series winning home run, Williams was dealt from Philadelphia to Houston. Williams was a disaster. He lived down to his nickname by walking 24 batters in 20 innings in compiling a 7.65 ERA over 25 outings.
Hader becoming the primary ninth inning man is a demotion for Ryan Pressly but nothing catastrophic. Pressly’s role is still significant and his 14 million dollar option for 2025 becomes guaranteed based upon appearances not saves. Pressly gets the 14 mil next year if he appears in 50 regular season games this year. Pressly pitched in 65 games in 2023. In fact, he has reached the 50 appearances plateau in each of the last seven full schedule seasons.
Hader makes 19 million dollars this season. Pressly pulls down 14 million. Bryan Abreu has to get by on 1.75 million in this his first season of salary arbitration eligibility. The Astros control Abreu’s rights through the 2026 season.
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How latest Astros events highlight serious concerns around core philosophies
May 22, 2025, 12:59 pm
Two seasons ago the Astros were oddly feeble at home and warriors on the road. Now, this season is headed nowhere if they can't pick it up away from Daikin Park. In the first week of April, the Astros won their initial road series of the season. It will be June before they win another. Well, presumably June. Approaching seven weeks since they took a series at Minnesota, it's now seven consecutive road stops without a series victory. In six straight three-game road series the Astros have lost two out of three, including at the laughingstock White Sox. They did split the four-game set in Arlington against the Rangers last weekend. The Astros’ road record is 10-15.
Now they're home for 10 in a row, starting with four versus the team the Astros look up at in the American League West standings. The Seattle Mariners hit town three and a half games ahead of the Astros. Last June, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 10 games and wound up winning the division. Expecting a sequel as good as an original usually is not a good idea. Winning this series is certainly not a necessity given the season still only reaches its one-third completed mark this coming Tuesday. Still, at least getting a split is advised, or the Astros are looking at falling five and half games off the lead should the Mariners win three out of four, seven and a half back should Seattle sweep. But flip the script. If the Astros sweep, they go to bed Sunday night leading the division. Taking three out four would be just fine, and have the Astros within a game and a half of first.
The Astros are carrying a payroll roughly 75 million dollars larger than that of the Mariners. The M’s have a farm system (currently one of the highest rated among the franchises) vastly superior to what the Astros have (one of the worst systems in the sport). So if Mariners’ ownership opted to loosen the purse strings in pursuit of in season talent infusions, the M’s are way better positioned to make an impact move than are the Astros. Just remember, even if the Mariners are going to pull away, the wild card picture does not have three teams that are obviously ultimately better than the Astros.
Positive vibes only
If you're into good luck charms, dig up a four-leaf clover or find a rabbit's foot, then cross your fingers where Ronel Blanco is concerned. It is quite an ominous sign that the Astros sent Blanco back to Houston a day early after he reported soreness in his pitching elbow. I mean, who would be surprised to hear that Blanco is done for the season a la Hayden Wesneski. It's increasingly essential that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez hold up physically and qualitatively the rest of the way. That Brown had his worst start of the season Wednesday in Tampa is no big deal. It's called being human. The Rays torching him for three home runs and five runs in five innings spiked Brown's earned run average all the way up to 2.04. Ooooh. Brown has been fantastic.
The Astros underestimated how long Spencer Arrighetti would be out. Shocking! Some boost from him seems necessary. There is only so much the Astros can reasonably hope for out of Lance McCullers, and the likes of Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter. That either Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia makes it back by, say, August is a best-case scenario. Then it would be hope about level of performance. The Astros hold no monopoly on serial pitching injuries. The Mariners have lost three-fifths of their stout starting rotation. George Kirby making his first 2025 start Thursday is a boost for them. Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are both still out.
Heart of the matter
Among the core frustrations for Astros’ fans are the continued crummy overall performances of Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. If it turns out that the 35-year-old Altuve has truly fallen over the hill as opposed to just enduring an extended deep slump that would be an obvious bummer. The same with the 34-year-old Walker though there is no emotional tug for Astros’ fans with Walker as there is with Altuve. Yainer Diaz is just 26. His regression is troubling, perhaps low-lighted by his one walk in his last 33 games played, four walks for the season in 170 plate appearances. That’s pathetic. Yainer, Victor Caratini, and Astros’ pitchers have collectively done a brutal job at dealing with opposition running games. The Astros have given up 62 stolen bases in 67 attempts, with one of the five caught stealings a pickoff, another a botched double steal.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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