THE PALLILOG
How latest Astros reports have all eyes on Houston's most important hurlers
Feb 15, 2024, 2:23 pm
The Astros need bounce-back seasons from Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez. Composite Getty Image.
Day one of Astros’ spring training certainly turned out to be more newsy than day one usually is.
Justin Verlander having had some shoulder discomfort that puts him in his words “a little bit behind schedule” isn't flat out ominous but isn't great. Verlander is a couple weeks behind to be more specific. Every little bit counts especially at 40 years old, so Verlander’s availability to start the regular season on time is clearly a question mark. If Verlander can’t answer the season opening bell it’s no big deal…so long as his Hall of Fame right arm is fine after that. Saving some treadwear on the tires could be helpful later in the season.
Verlander’s days of making 30-plus starts in a season are finished. In building his Cooperstown resume Verlander was spectacularly durable, making at least 30 starts in 13 out of 14 seasons starting with his 2006 Rookie of the Year campaign. Before blowing out his elbow in his lone start of the COVID-delayed 2020 season, 2015 was the only year Verlander spent time on the injured list. Verlander is still very good but Father Time has made incursions. In his incredible third Cy Young Award-winning 2022 season with the Astros Verlander made 28 starts, missing time to a calf issue. His 2023 launch with the Mets was delayed a month because of a shoulder problem. He wound up making 27 starts and pitching 162 innings last season. The Astros would be delighted if JV could match those numbers in 2024. 140 innings is a key marker. If Verlander gets there, a 35 million dollar option becomes his for 2025.
J.P. France also showed up in West Palm Beach dealing with shoulder inflammation. France was a revelation last year before fading down the stretch. Honestly, he was likely over his head before that. It’s quite optimistic to think of France as an excellent number four starter behind Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier.
Speaking of guys who faded down the stretch last year, hello Framber. Valdez’s 3.07 earned run average through August 1 (the day he no-hit the Cleveland Guardians) ballooned to a 4.29 mark covering his last 10 starts, then he stunk in two of his three postseason starts while being merely below average in the third. It’s only from seeing a couple of images from Wednesday, but Framber appears noticeably slimmer. From “La Grasa” to “El Delgado?” Did a weight issue impact Valdez’s decline last season? Can’t say for sure, but as a general rule would you rather place your bet for sustained quality performance on someone in top physical condition or someone not in top physical condition? The weight question could plausibly apply to Cristian Javier as well.
The other two guys slotted for starting rotation roles carry their own questions. Hunter Brown’s rookie season was ultimately a disappointment. After a strong April with a 2.74 ERA, Brown basically stunk the rest of the way with a 5.74 ERA. From July 1 to the end of the regular season the ERA was a horrifying 6.95. Those are the numbers of someone who without improvement belongs in the minor leagues. Solid to significant improvement is needed. He has the stuff to make it happen. Then there is Jose Urquidy who comes off an injury-hampered unimpressive season.
With Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers not returning from their injuries until at least midseason, the Astros’ rotation looks shakier heading into the season than it has in years. Yet it still looks better than where the Texas Rangers’ rotation is at right now.
Man with a plan
New skipper Joe Espada wasted no time in confirming what seemed pretty obvious. Newly acquired Josh Hader is the Astros’ new closer. Hader wasn’t signed to a five year 95 million dollar contract to be a setup man. He’s a pretty safe bet to work out better for the Astros than did the last flamethrowing lefty closer they acquired. That was Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams.” After giving up Joe Carter’s 1993 World Series winning home run, Williams was dealt from Philadelphia to Houston. Williams was a disaster. He lived down to his nickname by walking 24 batters in 20 innings in compiling a 7.65 ERA over 25 outings.
Hader becoming the primary ninth inning man is a demotion for Ryan Pressly but nothing catastrophic. Pressly’s role is still significant and his 14 million dollar option for 2025 becomes guaranteed based upon appearances not saves. Pressly gets the 14 mil next year if he appears in 50 regular season games this year. Pressly pitched in 65 games in 2023. In fact, he has reached the 50 appearances plateau in each of the last seven full schedule seasons.
Hader makes 19 million dollars this season. Pressly pulls down 14 million. Bryan Abreu has to get by on 1.75 million in this his first season of salary arbitration eligibility. The Astros control Abreu’s rights through the 2026 season.
Green and Sengun help the Rockets beat the short-handed Nuggets 128-108
Jan 15, 2025, 10:57 pm
If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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