Houston has had some ups and downs
Breaking down the 11-11 start for the Astros and looking ahead
May 2, 2022, 9:27 am
Houston has had some ups and downs
Justin Verlander is looking his best, but what about the rest of Houston's roster?
With the delayed start to the 2022 MLB regular season, we currently have 22 games in the books for the Houston Astros as the calendar turns to May 2nd. Houston sits at an even 11-11 over that span, with highlights and lowlights along the way, but overall puts them lagging in the AL West division, looking 3.5 games up to the Angels in first and one game up to the Mariners in second.
It's certainly no time to panic, just as it's too early to fully buy into red-hot starts by other teams, yet there are plenty of games behind us to look at specific themes the Astros have given us.
One of Houston's toughest matchups in this first month was against the Toronto Blue Jays, who they faced six times over that span, three at home and three on the road. While the matchups were exciting and had a playoff-caliber feel to them, Houston walked away with a 2-4 record in those games, showing some hot-and-cold offense along the way.
The two wins, an 8-7 extra-inning walk-off at home and an 11-7 win in Toronto, were both led by the bats, while their offense combined for just eight runs in the other four games. While it certainly seems like Houston will be able to take advantage of several easily-winnable series throughout May and beyond, it's clear that they have some work to do, including getting more wins against the AL's best, to get back on top of the power rankings for the American League.
While we've seen this play out before, and we know what the core pieces of Houston's lineup are capable of when they are at their best, they certainly aren't there yet in 2022. The Astros currently have just four players hitting at or above .250, with Kyle Tucker finally getting back to that mark after a rough stretch in April. The other three are Yordan Alvarez (.258), Michael Brantley (.274), and team-leading Chas McCormick, who, despite playing a few fewer games, still has a .288 average.
Jeremy Pena, who started hot and stayed above .300 most of the first half of April, has cooled off to a .211, an average currently shared by Yuli Gurriel, last year's AL batting champion. It's often been said that "as Altuve goes, the Astros go," and if that's the case, his disappointing .167 average, although it's unlikely to stay that way, shows that Houston hasn't had the best start at the plate.
Their .214 team average puts them 11th in the American League, along with their 10th-best on-base percentage and 8th-best slugging percentage, leaving more to be desired from a lineup that everyone knows is capable of much more.
Houston also has dealt with a travel-heavy start to this season, with sixteen of their games away from Minute Maid Park compared to six at home. While the Astros have gotten out to a 2-4 start at home so far, they will look to improve on that and take advantage of the home crowd's energy as they go into the rest of May with a more even split of home and away (14 vs. 14 to get to the end of May).
The first of the two homestands of the month starts Monday night as they welcome the Mariners, setting up a three-game battle for second place in the division as both try to reel back in the Angels. Then, they'll have a four-game set with the Tigers this weekend, then return home from May 19th to May 25th with a series against the Rangers and Guardians.
Speaking of that stretch, you'll notice that there are 29 games in May, including Sunday's loss to the Blue Jays. Houston has just two off days the whole month, coming on Monday, May 9th, as they transition from a homestand to a road trip, and then Thursday, May 26th, where they will do the same. Dusty Baker opted to bring a sixth pitcher into the rotation to compensate for this grueling stretch, Cristian Javier, who has had plenty of success as a long reliever in recent memory.
Javier did well in his first start of the season against the Rangers on April 27th, going five innings while allowing two runs to Texas and reaching 84 pitches to earn him a win. Using a six-man rotation affords the Astros to take care of their starters, who are already missing Lance McCullers Jr., who expect to enter the fray in the middle of the season to strengthen their pitching staff further. One would also suspect that Baker will continue to sprinkle in off-days for players to try and keep them as healthy as possible.
On the topic of injuries, Houston has dealt with some while having some positive returns from others. McCullers Jr. will still have a long road to his recovery ahead of him, but it appears Jose Altuve, who last played on April 18th and went on the IL two days later, will make his return from a hamstring strain in the series opener against the Mariners on Monday night.
Justin Verlander, who many were cautiously optimistic about watching his return from Tommy John surgery, appears to be back to full form. He most recently reached 91 pitches in a seven-inning win, bringing him to 2-1 on the early season with a 1.73 ERA, 28 strikeouts, and a league-leading WHIP at 0.69. Ryan Pressly, meanwhile, remains on the 10-day IL with a knee issue, with no particular timetable for a return just yet.
Other than Altuve and Pressly's trips to the IL, the Astros have avoided any other significant injuries and will hope to keep it that way as they continue to navigate through the long MLB season, which followed a shortened spring. If they can do that and get a little more consistent at the plate, they will likely find themselves right back on top of the division and one of the best in the American League.
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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