ARMS RACE

How dynastic history shapes the Houston Astros 2024 trajectory

Astros Greinke, Alvarez, Cole, Verlander, Luhnow, Bregman
Will the Astros have enough starting pitching for another deep playoff run? Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Is this any way for the defending American League West champions to start a season? With four of their projected frontline starting pitchers on the injured list?

That’s how the Astros will kick off their 2024 season next week against the dreaded enemy New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park … with Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia out of action with injuries.

The game technically is a sell-out, but secondary market sites have tickets available starting at $74 in the nosebleeds up to $500 for up close and personal seats.

Verlander is expected to miss only a couple of starts, Urquidy is scheduled to resume throwing in 10-15 days, while McCullers Jr. and Garcia are hoping to rejoin the team around the midseason mark.

In the meantime, the Astros will head to battle with a rotation of opening day starter Framber Valdez followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and possibly Brandon Bielak. All six combined for 49 wins last season.

Will that crew be able to hold down the fort until Verlander and the other wounded hurlers return? It’s the question mark of Astros spring training. No wonder the Astros pushed hard – but not hard enough – to sign free agent and reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell this week. Snell rejected the Astros offer and signed a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.

The current rotation will not look like your father’s – or A.J. Hinch or Dusty Baker’s – Astros when the umpire yells “Play Ball!” next week.

Let’s cherry-pick the starting rotations from the Astros ongoing dynasty of seven consecutive ALCS appearances, four World Series appearances and two championships since 2017.

In 2017, the Astros first World Series title, the team finished with 101 wins and 61 losses. The pitching staff was led by Charlie Morton (14-7), Dallas Keuchel (14-5), Brad Peacock (13-2), Lance McCullers (7-4) and a late add-on named Justin Verlander who went 5-0) for the Astros. All winning records. Bet you forgot Peacock’s ridiculous mark that championship season.

In 2018, the Astros improved to 103-59. The starters were led by Verlander (16-9), Charlie Morton (15-3), Gerrit Cole (15-5), Dallas Keuchel (12-11) and Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6).

As you look back on Astros recent seasons, you begin to wonder why or how the Astros let Charlie Morton escape Houston. Also, if the name is unfamiliar to young fans, yes, Lance McCullers Jr. once was a full-time pitcher for the Astros.

In 2019, the Astros improved even more with a 107-55 record. That was the year that Verlander (21-6) and Cole (20-5) battled 1-2 for the Cy Young Award. Wade Miley had a 14-6 record and Brad Peacock went 7-6. Zack Greinke went 8-1 after being traded to Houston.

In 2022, the Astros finished 106-56 and won their second World Series. Verlander was outstanding at 18-4, Valdez became a legit star with a 17-6 mark and set an in-season record with 25 consecutive quality starts. Garcia went 15-8, Urquidy was 13-8 and Javier was 11-9.

Even though the Astros won the American League West in a tiebreaker last season, the team won only 90 games and the starting rotation had some rough moments. Verlander started the season with the Mets, joined the Astros midstream and went 7-3 for the Houstonians. Valdez fell back to 12-11, Javier started strong but faded and finished 10-5, J.P. France came out of the blue with a surprising 11-6 mark and newcomer Hunter Brown went 11-13. Sometimes starter Brandon Bielak chipped in with 5-6.

Where have you gone Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton?

Despite last season’s return to Earth, and injuries wracking the current pitching staff, the Astros are the betting choice (+700) among American League teams to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (+320) and Braves (+450) have better odds of lifting baseball’s Commissioner’s Trophy.





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Kyle Tucker returns to Houston this weekend. Composite Getty Image.

Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.

The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.

On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.

Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.

It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs

Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.

The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.

How the mighty have fallen.

Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.

Screenshot via: MLB.com



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