ARMS RACE
How dynastic history shapes the Houston Astros 2024 trajectory
Mar 20, 2024, 4:52 pm
ARMS RACE
Is this any way for the defending American League West champions to start a season? With four of their projected frontline starting pitchers on the injured list?
That’s how the Astros will kick off their 2024 season next week against the dreaded enemy New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park … with Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia out of action with injuries.
The game technically is a sell-out, but secondary market sites have tickets available starting at $74 in the nosebleeds up to $500 for up close and personal seats.
Verlander is expected to miss only a couple of starts, Urquidy is scheduled to resume throwing in 10-15 days, while McCullers Jr. and Garcia are hoping to rejoin the team around the midseason mark.
In the meantime, the Astros will head to battle with a rotation of opening day starter Framber Valdez followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and possibly Brandon Bielak. All six combined for 49 wins last season.
Will that crew be able to hold down the fort until Verlander and the other wounded hurlers return? It’s the question mark of Astros spring training. No wonder the Astros pushed hard – but not hard enough – to sign free agent and reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell this week. Snell rejected the Astros offer and signed a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.
The current rotation will not look like your father’s – or A.J. Hinch or Dusty Baker’s – Astros when the umpire yells “Play Ball!” next week.
Let’s cherry-pick the starting rotations from the Astros ongoing dynasty of seven consecutive ALCS appearances, four World Series appearances and two championships since 2017.
In 2017, the Astros first World Series title, the team finished with 101 wins and 61 losses. The pitching staff was led by Charlie Morton (14-7), Dallas Keuchel (14-5), Brad Peacock (13-2), Lance McCullers (7-4) and a late add-on named Justin Verlander who went 5-0) for the Astros. All winning records. Bet you forgot Peacock’s ridiculous mark that championship season.
In 2018, the Astros improved to 103-59. The starters were led by Verlander (16-9), Charlie Morton (15-3), Gerrit Cole (15-5), Dallas Keuchel (12-11) and Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6).
As you look back on Astros recent seasons, you begin to wonder why or how the Astros let Charlie Morton escape Houston. Also, if the name is unfamiliar to young fans, yes, Lance McCullers Jr. once was a full-time pitcher for the Astros.
In 2019, the Astros improved even more with a 107-55 record. That was the year that Verlander (21-6) and Cole (20-5) battled 1-2 for the Cy Young Award. Wade Miley had a 14-6 record and Brad Peacock went 7-6. Zack Greinke went 8-1 after being traded to Houston.
In 2022, the Astros finished 106-56 and won their second World Series. Verlander was outstanding at 18-4, Valdez became a legit star with a 17-6 mark and set an in-season record with 25 consecutive quality starts. Garcia went 15-8, Urquidy was 13-8 and Javier was 11-9.
Even though the Astros won the American League West in a tiebreaker last season, the team won only 90 games and the starting rotation had some rough moments. Verlander started the season with the Mets, joined the Astros midstream and went 7-3 for the Houstonians. Valdez fell back to 12-11, Javier started strong but faded and finished 10-5, J.P. France came out of the blue with a surprising 11-6 mark and newcomer Hunter Brown went 11-13. Sometimes starter Brandon Bielak chipped in with 5-6.
Where have you gone Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton?
Despite last season’s return to Earth, and injuries wracking the current pitching staff, the Astros are the betting choice (+700) among American League teams to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (+320) and Braves (+450) have better odds of lifting baseball’s Commissioner’s Trophy.
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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