ARMS RACE

How dynastic history shapes the Houston Astros 2024 trajectory

Astros Greinke, Alvarez, Cole, Verlander, Luhnow, Bregman
Will the Astros have enough starting pitching for another deep playoff run? Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Is this any way for the defending American League West champions to start a season? With four of their projected frontline starting pitchers on the injured list?

That’s how the Astros will kick off their 2024 season next week against the dreaded enemy New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park … with Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia out of action with injuries.

The game technically is a sell-out, but secondary market sites have tickets available starting at $74 in the nosebleeds up to $500 for up close and personal seats.

Verlander is expected to miss only a couple of starts, Urquidy is scheduled to resume throwing in 10-15 days, while McCullers Jr. and Garcia are hoping to rejoin the team around the midseason mark.

In the meantime, the Astros will head to battle with a rotation of opening day starter Framber Valdez followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and possibly Brandon Bielak. All six combined for 49 wins last season.

Will that crew be able to hold down the fort until Verlander and the other wounded hurlers return? It’s the question mark of Astros spring training. No wonder the Astros pushed hard – but not hard enough – to sign free agent and reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell this week. Snell rejected the Astros offer and signed a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.

The current rotation will not look like your father’s – or A.J. Hinch or Dusty Baker’s – Astros when the umpire yells “Play Ball!” next week.

Let’s cherry-pick the starting rotations from the Astros ongoing dynasty of seven consecutive ALCS appearances, four World Series appearances and two championships since 2017.

In 2017, the Astros first World Series title, the team finished with 101 wins and 61 losses. The pitching staff was led by Charlie Morton (14-7), Dallas Keuchel (14-5), Brad Peacock (13-2), Lance McCullers (7-4) and a late add-on named Justin Verlander who went 5-0) for the Astros. All winning records. Bet you forgot Peacock’s ridiculous mark that championship season.

In 2018, the Astros improved to 103-59. The starters were led by Verlander (16-9), Charlie Morton (15-3), Gerrit Cole (15-5), Dallas Keuchel (12-11) and Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6).

As you look back on Astros recent seasons, you begin to wonder why or how the Astros let Charlie Morton escape Houston. Also, if the name is unfamiliar to young fans, yes, Lance McCullers Jr. once was a full-time pitcher for the Astros.

In 2019, the Astros improved even more with a 107-55 record. That was the year that Verlander (21-6) and Cole (20-5) battled 1-2 for the Cy Young Award. Wade Miley had a 14-6 record and Brad Peacock went 7-6. Zack Greinke went 8-1 after being traded to Houston.

In 2022, the Astros finished 106-56 and won their second World Series. Verlander was outstanding at 18-4, Valdez became a legit star with a 17-6 mark and set an in-season record with 25 consecutive quality starts. Garcia went 15-8, Urquidy was 13-8 and Javier was 11-9.

Even though the Astros won the American League West in a tiebreaker last season, the team won only 90 games and the starting rotation had some rough moments. Verlander started the season with the Mets, joined the Astros midstream and went 7-3 for the Houstonians. Valdez fell back to 12-11, Javier started strong but faded and finished 10-5, J.P. France came out of the blue with a surprising 11-6 mark and newcomer Hunter Brown went 11-13. Sometimes starter Brandon Bielak chipped in with 5-6.

Where have you gone Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton?

Despite last season’s return to Earth, and injuries wracking the current pitching staff, the Astros are the betting choice (+700) among American League teams to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (+320) and Braves (+450) have better odds of lifting baseball’s Commissioner’s Trophy.





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The Astros beat the Mets, 2-1. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.

Jeremy Peña homered and Yordan Alvarez got his first hit this season, a tiebreaking double in the sixth inning that lifted the Houston Astros to a 2-1 win over the New York Mets on Saturday night.

Houston took two of three in a season-opening series between 2024 playoff teams.

Spencer Arrighetti (1-0) allowed just one hit, a first-inning double to Juan Soto, and one run with five strikeouts in six innings. Astros closer Josh Hader walked Soto to start the ninth before retiring the next three batters for his second save, completing the one-hitter.

The game was tied with two outs in the sixth when Alvarez knocked a double off the wall in center field to send Isaac Paredes home from first base, putting Houston on top 2-1.

Griffin Canning (0-1) gave up four hits and two runs over 5 2/3 innings in his Mets debut.

Canning had allowed just one hit on a leadoff single to Jose Altuve when Peña gave the Astros their first homer this season on his shot to the seats in left field with no outs in the fifth to make it 1-0.

Soto doubled with one out in the first and Brandon Nimmo walked with two outs. Arrighetti retired the next 13 batters before walking Jose Siri to start the sixth.

Siri stole second against his former team before advancing to third on a flyout by Francisco Lindor.

Soto then grounded out to Arrighetti and Siri dashed home, sliding in just before the tag to tie it at 1.

The Mets went 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position.

Key moment

The double by Alvarez that gave Houston the lead for good.

Key stat

Canning, who spent his first five seasons with the Angels, fell to 0-4 in 10 career starts against the Astros.

Up next

Both teams are off Sunday before Houston hosts the Giants for a three-game series beginning Monday night and the Mets play at Miami that night.

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