ARMS RACE
How dynastic history shapes the Houston Astros 2024 trajectory
Mar 20, 2024, 4:52 pm
Will the Astros have enough starting pitching for another deep playoff run? Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Is this any way for the defending American League West champions to start a season? With four of their projected frontline starting pitchers on the injured list?
That’s how the Astros will kick off their 2024 season next week against the dreaded enemy New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park … with Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia out of action with injuries.
The game technically is a sell-out, but secondary market sites have tickets available starting at $74 in the nosebleeds up to $500 for up close and personal seats.
Verlander is expected to miss only a couple of starts, Urquidy is scheduled to resume throwing in 10-15 days, while McCullers Jr. and Garcia are hoping to rejoin the team around the midseason mark.
In the meantime, the Astros will head to battle with a rotation of opening day starter Framber Valdez followed by Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and possibly Brandon Bielak. All six combined for 49 wins last season.
Will that crew be able to hold down the fort until Verlander and the other wounded hurlers return? It’s the question mark of Astros spring training. No wonder the Astros pushed hard – but not hard enough – to sign free agent and reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell this week. Snell rejected the Astros offer and signed a two-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.
The current rotation will not look like your father’s – or A.J. Hinch or Dusty Baker’s – Astros when the umpire yells “Play Ball!” next week.
Let’s cherry-pick the starting rotations from the Astros ongoing dynasty of seven consecutive ALCS appearances, four World Series appearances and two championships since 2017.
In 2017, the Astros first World Series title, the team finished with 101 wins and 61 losses. The pitching staff was led by Charlie Morton (14-7), Dallas Keuchel (14-5), Brad Peacock (13-2), Lance McCullers (7-4) and a late add-on named Justin Verlander who went 5-0) for the Astros. All winning records. Bet you forgot Peacock’s ridiculous mark that championship season.
In 2018, the Astros improved to 103-59. The starters were led by Verlander (16-9), Charlie Morton (15-3), Gerrit Cole (15-5), Dallas Keuchel (12-11) and Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6).
As you look back on Astros recent seasons, you begin to wonder why or how the Astros let Charlie Morton escape Houston. Also, if the name is unfamiliar to young fans, yes, Lance McCullers Jr. once was a full-time pitcher for the Astros.
In 2019, the Astros improved even more with a 107-55 record. That was the year that Verlander (21-6) and Cole (20-5) battled 1-2 for the Cy Young Award. Wade Miley had a 14-6 record and Brad Peacock went 7-6. Zack Greinke went 8-1 after being traded to Houston.
In 2022, the Astros finished 106-56 and won their second World Series. Verlander was outstanding at 18-4, Valdez became a legit star with a 17-6 mark and set an in-season record with 25 consecutive quality starts. Garcia went 15-8, Urquidy was 13-8 and Javier was 11-9.
Even though the Astros won the American League West in a tiebreaker last season, the team won only 90 games and the starting rotation had some rough moments. Verlander started the season with the Mets, joined the Astros midstream and went 7-3 for the Houstonians. Valdez fell back to 12-11, Javier started strong but faded and finished 10-5, J.P. France came out of the blue with a surprising 11-6 mark and newcomer Hunter Brown went 11-13. Sometimes starter Brandon Bielak chipped in with 5-6.
Where have you gone Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton?
Despite last season’s return to Earth, and injuries wracking the current pitching staff, the Astros are the betting choice (+700) among American League teams to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (+320) and Braves (+450) have better odds of lifting baseball’s Commissioner’s Trophy.
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The Houston Astros are in the middle of a midseason surge that’s turned heads across the American League, but don’t let the win streak distract from one key truth: they’re doing this with less.
So what’s powering the Astros’ recent run? It starts with elite pitching. Despite an offense that's been merely middle-of-the-pack — 14th in OPS, 20th in runs scored, and 17th in slugging — Houston ranks fifth in team ERA and leads the majors in batting average against (.218). That’s how they’re winning series while missing key pieces of their core.
Still, there’s more to this run than numbers. Is the resilience we’re seeing tangible evidence of the Astros’ winning culture? Absolutely — especially lately. Rookie Cam Smith is the latest example. He delivered the first walk-off hit of his career over the weekend and looks like he belongs in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the lineup has caught fire over the last week hitting:
- Jose Altuve: .429
- Jeremy Peña: .417
- Cam Smith: .304
- Yainer Diaz: .292
- Christian Walker: .278
And all of this has come without one of Houston’s top two hitters being unavailable for the Twins series, Isaac Paredes, who remains sidelined with a sore hamstring.
With 71 games in the books, the conversation around second-year manager Joe Espada is beginning to shift — from quiet confidence to serious consideration for AL Manager of the Year. The case is strong. Espada has navigated a bruised and bruising season that’s seen Yordan Alvarez miss extended time with a fractured bone in his hand and three key starting pitchers (Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco) land on the shelf — two of them for the year.
So, what would it take for Astros owner Jim Crane to give GM Dana Brown the green light to aggressively pursue help at the deadline? History suggests pitching would be the priority. But with young arms like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter stepping up, a move may not feel necessary, especially if it means exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
The Astros might be banged up, but they’re thriving and proving they don’t need to be at full strength to play like contenders.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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