DOWN TO THE WIRE
Here are the underlying factors laying groundwork for Astros stretch run
Aug 31, 2023, 5:58 pm
The Astros' offense has come alive at just the right time. Composite Getty Image.
How these 4 Astros season-defining factors are setting the stage for major late-season drama
We’ll see whether the American League West race remains a three team derby down to the final days of the regular season, but as of now, this is fantastic! None of the other major sports can rival the day-to-day pulse of a good baseball playoff race. With the Astros, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers all having Thursday off, into the first weekend of September we go with the Mariners and Astros in a virtual tie for first with the Rangers one game back. The Rangers are home vs. the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins this weekend, the Mariners crossed the country to play the New York Mets.
There has never been a three-way tie for a division title. Should that unlikely history be made, first place goes to the team with the best combined record versus the other two. As things stand all three would get in the playoffs, with the Toronto Blue Jays three and a half games back of the Astros and M’s, two and a half behind the Rangers. If the Jays have a big run in them, they need it to kick in. Their next nine games are against the three worst teams in Major League Baseball: three at Colorado, three at Oakland, three home against Kansas City. The AL East runner-up between Baltimore and Tampa Bay is all but officially a Wild Card lock.
Off burying the Boston Red Sox’ season at Fenway Park with a three game sweep, now the Astros hope to administer more pain to the already dead New York Yankees. Though Thursday’s win grew a bit hairier than desired, the Astros would be hard-pressed to feel better heading into the weekend. 52 runs scored during their active five game winning streak. Michael Brantley with a two hit game Thursday after knocking off some rust with an 0-4 Wednesday in his first big league game in 14 months.
After four months of largely mediocre performance, Alex Bregman is piping hot with a .397 batting average and 12 extra base hits over his last 14 games. After he was flat out horrible in June and July, Jeremy Peña finished an August in which he hit .333 with an .881 OPS. Perhaps more significant than all the preceding (other than the wins of course), Framber Valdez posted a solid start in finishing off the BoSox. None of that guarantees a smashing 'Stros September, but anyone rooting Astros has to like their chances.
Following two outings over which he has thrown 11 shutout innings with 16 strikeouts, Justin Verlander starts the opener against the Yankees and their free agent disaster pitcher signing Carlos Rodon. Sidelined by injury for the bulk of the first season of his six year 162 million dollar contract, in eight starts Rodon is 1-4 with a 5.97 earned run average. When they faced Rodon August 6 the Astros knocked him out in the third inning. The Yanks only good starting pitcher is Cy Young Award favorite Gerrit Cole. The Astros won’t face Cole this weekend. Verlander goes on four days rest for a second straight start. He’ll make it three with Verlander clearly slotted to pitch the series finale against the Rangers this coming Wednesday. Oh yeah. The scheduled Rangers’ starting pitcher Wednesday? Max Scherzer. Perfect! Well, not for Mets fans.
On the subject of Arlington, barring something calamitous happening against the Yankees, the Astros go there as healthy as they can be the rest of this season. The Rangers are down injured rookie All-Star third baseman Josh Jung, and ace starter Nathan Eovaldi. J.P. France and Framber should be the Astros’ starting pitchers Monday and Tuesday, on current rotation in that order. If starting the veteran Valdez in game one is preferable, he’d have four days rest. The three game set starting Labor Day is the Astros’ biggest regular season series since 2015. None of the five Astros’ division titles in this Platinum Era faced the September challenge of 2023.
With all the Astros have accomplished since then and what they’re playing for now, it’s not as if payback for 2015 is on their radar whatsoever, but it was to Arlington the Astros went in mid-September eight seasons ago leading the AL West by a game and a half, only to have the Rangers sweep them four straight. The Astros didn’t see first place again, as the Rangers went on to win the division.
The Astros did get their first postseason taste of this run via the Wild Card, eliminating the Yankees before coming closer to ousting Kansas City than anyone else would along the Royals’ route to the World Series championship. The Rangers meanwhile authored one of MLB’s most notorious postseason gag jobs by blowing a two wins to none lead over Toronto in their best-of-five Division Series, capped in the decisive fifth game by committing errors on three consecutive plays in the bottom of the seventh inning ahead of Jose Bautista’s epic tiebreaking three run home run and bat flip.
Something to monitor
It’s very poor sportsmanship to hope for bad injury news for a fellow contender (and risks bad karma if you're into that). Human nature though, in an often dog eat dog world… Seattle stud center fielder Julio Rodriguez, the obvious American League Player of the Month for August, has missed the last two games with a pinched nerve in his left foot. Hopefully he’s back this weekend.
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The Houston Texans head to Green Bay this weekend to play in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season.
On offense, the Texans will look to maintain the boost Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce provided to the running game last week against the Patriots.
Despite Houston's success with the ground game against the Pats, there are some concerns. Most of the production came from two explosive runs. They ranked in the Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.
Despite the volume against New England, Houston's run game on Sunday:
Ranked Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.
Lots of inefficient runs with huge gains sprinkled in-between. Is that sustainable? #HTownMade
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 15, 2024
Air it out
The passing game once again will go through Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs with Nico Collins sidelined. Dell received a large portion of the downfield work that Collins had been doing.
Tank posted the highest route win rate and average separation score for Houston in Week 6, per Jacob Gibbs, and Fantasy Points Data.
In what should be a high scoring game, expect Dell to be Stroud's main target downfield.
What about the defense?
The Texans defense is 30th in EPA against play action, so don't be surprised if that's how the Packers will try to get some big plays down field.
D'Angelo Ross stepped in at corner with Kamari Lassiter injured last week. He lined up at the left corner spot, where Packers receiver Christian Watson will likely run the majority of his routes this week.
With Derek Stingley lining up outside on the right, he'll be facing Romeo Doubs a majority of the time. We expect Doubs will have a quiet day and the Packers will target Watson against Ross, and Jayden Daniels in the slot versus Jalen Pitre.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has been dialing up the blitz more and more. And that looks like a good idea once again this week, as Love is 28th in QBR when blitzed this season.
What does Vegas think?
The Packers are favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at 47.5 points.
There are so many more angles to cover in this exciting matchup. Don't miss the video above as we break it all down! And head to the SportsMap Texans YouTube channel right after the game as we react live!