DOWN TO THE WIRE
Here are the underlying factors laying groundwork for Astros stretch run
Aug 31, 2023, 5:58 pm
The Astros' offense has come alive at just the right time. Composite Getty Image.
How these 4 Astros season-defining factors are setting the stage for major late-season drama
We’ll see whether the American League West race remains a three team derby down to the final days of the regular season, but as of now, this is fantastic! None of the other major sports can rival the day-to-day pulse of a good baseball playoff race. With the Astros, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers all having Thursday off, into the first weekend of September we go with the Mariners and Astros in a virtual tie for first with the Rangers one game back. The Rangers are home vs. the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins this weekend, the Mariners crossed the country to play the New York Mets.
There has never been a three-way tie for a division title. Should that unlikely history be made, first place goes to the team with the best combined record versus the other two. As things stand all three would get in the playoffs, with the Toronto Blue Jays three and a half games back of the Astros and M’s, two and a half behind the Rangers. If the Jays have a big run in them, they need it to kick in. Their next nine games are against the three worst teams in Major League Baseball: three at Colorado, three at Oakland, three home against Kansas City. The AL East runner-up between Baltimore and Tampa Bay is all but officially a Wild Card lock.
Off burying the Boston Red Sox’ season at Fenway Park with a three game sweep, now the Astros hope to administer more pain to the already dead New York Yankees. Though Thursday’s win grew a bit hairier than desired, the Astros would be hard-pressed to feel better heading into the weekend. 52 runs scored during their active five game winning streak. Michael Brantley with a two hit game Thursday after knocking off some rust with an 0-4 Wednesday in his first big league game in 14 months.
After four months of largely mediocre performance, Alex Bregman is piping hot with a .397 batting average and 12 extra base hits over his last 14 games. After he was flat out horrible in June and July, Jeremy Peña finished an August in which he hit .333 with an .881 OPS. Perhaps more significant than all the preceding (other than the wins of course), Framber Valdez posted a solid start in finishing off the BoSox. None of that guarantees a smashing 'Stros September, but anyone rooting Astros has to like their chances.
Following two outings over which he has thrown 11 shutout innings with 16 strikeouts, Justin Verlander starts the opener against the Yankees and their free agent disaster pitcher signing Carlos Rodon. Sidelined by injury for the bulk of the first season of his six year 162 million dollar contract, in eight starts Rodon is 1-4 with a 5.97 earned run average. When they faced Rodon August 6 the Astros knocked him out in the third inning. The Yanks only good starting pitcher is Cy Young Award favorite Gerrit Cole. The Astros won’t face Cole this weekend. Verlander goes on four days rest for a second straight start. He’ll make it three with Verlander clearly slotted to pitch the series finale against the Rangers this coming Wednesday. Oh yeah. The scheduled Rangers’ starting pitcher Wednesday? Max Scherzer. Perfect! Well, not for Mets fans.
On the subject of Arlington, barring something calamitous happening against the Yankees, the Astros go there as healthy as they can be the rest of this season. The Rangers are down injured rookie All-Star third baseman Josh Jung, and ace starter Nathan Eovaldi. J.P. France and Framber should be the Astros’ starting pitchers Monday and Tuesday, on current rotation in that order. If starting the veteran Valdez in game one is preferable, he’d have four days rest. The three game set starting Labor Day is the Astros’ biggest regular season series since 2015. None of the five Astros’ division titles in this Platinum Era faced the September challenge of 2023.
With all the Astros have accomplished since then and what they’re playing for now, it’s not as if payback for 2015 is on their radar whatsoever, but it was to Arlington the Astros went in mid-September eight seasons ago leading the AL West by a game and a half, only to have the Rangers sweep them four straight. The Astros didn’t see first place again, as the Rangers went on to win the division.
The Astros did get their first postseason taste of this run via the Wild Card, eliminating the Yankees before coming closer to ousting Kansas City than anyone else would along the Royals’ route to the World Series championship. The Rangers meanwhile authored one of MLB’s most notorious postseason gag jobs by blowing a two wins to none lead over Toronto in their best-of-five Division Series, capped in the decisive fifth game by committing errors on three consecutive plays in the bottom of the seventh inning ahead of Jose Bautista’s epic tiebreaking three run home run and bat flip.
Something to monitor
It’s very poor sportsmanship to hope for bad injury news for a fellow contender (and risks bad karma if you're into that). Human nature though, in an often dog eat dog world… Seattle stud center fielder Julio Rodriguez, the obvious American League Player of the Month for August, has missed the last two games with a pinched nerve in his left foot. Hopefully he’s back this weekend.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
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