THE PALLILOG
The minefield Astros GM must navigate with trade targets now crystal clear
Jun 6, 2024, 10:45 am
THE PALLILOG
Major League Baseball players always enjoy a day off, even guys or teams on a hot streak, since days off are not plentiful over the six months of the regular season. The Astros no doubt savor Thursday’s respite a little more than usual since it comes at the end of a stretch of having played 29 games in 30 days. The Astros went 16-13 over the 29 games, which is okay, but absolutely not a good enough win rate over the remaining 99 games on their schedule to make the postseason for an eighth year in a row.
Failing to finish off a sweep of the Cardinals has the Astros opening the weekend in Anaheim with their record seven games under .500 at 28-35. As I put it on our Stone Cold 'Stros podcast this week, the great golfer/philosopher Ty Webb would characterize the Astros by saying “You're not.....you're not.....you're not good.” The last time the Astros were within four games of even-Steven they were 4-8. They then gave up 36 runs over their next three games in losing them all to tumble to 4-11. Since then the Astros have gone 24-24. Meh. It’s time for the Astros to mount a charge toward the break-even mark if they are serious about getting back to the playoffs. After finishing up with the crappy Angels, the Astros move up the California coast for three at the losing San Francisco Giants. Splitting the six-game trip wouldn’t be awful, but it’s not a good trip unless the Astros take at least four of the six. Six of their next eight series are against an opponent currently carrying a losing record.
No time to waste
Not helpful to the cause, the loss well into the 2025 season of pitcher Cristian Javier thanks to Tommy John surgery. After the usual Astros’ annoying obfuscation in discussing injuries, the reality settles in of a big blow to their starting rotation. Javier is in year two of his five year 64 million dollar contract extension. Jose Urquidy is also done courtesy of his own blown-out elbow, though in his case expecting much this season was more hope than reasonable expectation. Urquidy has no contractual safety net. He is arbitration eligible for 2025, but the Astros could well non-tender Urquidy and make him a free agent.
General Manager Dana Brown should be kicking tires left and right trying to add a back of the rotation starter. Luis Garcia is making strides in his Tommy John recovery, but is at best more than a month away. Quality performance upon return is very far from a given. Who knows re: Lance McCullers. It’s not as if the Astros are inoculated against injury or performance issues with the remaining healthy guys. Regularly starting 41-year-old Justin Verlander on four days rest isn’t a wise plan. Back-to-back poor starts aren’t catastrophic, but regression from Ronel Blanco was inevitable. There was no chance of Blanco pitching to the 1.99 earned run average guy he was over his first nine starts. Hunter Brown has met the definition of “quality start” in his last three outings. Spencer Arrighetti’s command is still not nearly good enough but he shows legit promise. Framber Valdez still induces agita more often than ideally would be the case, but he’s been solid to excellent in five of his seven starts since returning from the injured list.
On the plus side, Yainer Diaz ended a distressingly long stretch where he hit more like Brad Ausmus than the young Mike Piazza power impression he put forth last year. 13 games into his season Diaz was batting .333 with three home runs. 39 games played and 142 at bats later, Yainer was still sitting on three homers with a pitiful .529 OPS over those 39 games. Now Yainer has gone deep in three consecutive games.
Since last week’s column, it’s been another minus week on the books for Jose Altuve. Over his last 28 games Altuve is batting .219. He has struck out a shocking 28 times in those 28 games. Altuve’s OPS for the season has sagged to .783. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season in which Altuve was terrible, the last year he finished with an OPS below .812 was 2013 (.678). 2013 is the only full-length season of Altuve’s magnificent career in which he wasn’t a good player. A .783 OPS is good, but also a precipitous drop from the .921 and .915 Altuve posted the past two seasons.
If you knew nothing about the Astros other than that they trotted out a lineup June 5 with Jake Meyers batting cleanup and Jon Singleton fifth, you’d likely think “Yikes!” There they were Wednesday. Get well soon Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Like, immediately. Meyers’s hot streak was a good story but he has flattened out with just five hits in his last 34 at bats (.147 average). The Singleton/Jose Abreu job share at first base is increasingly sad.
Game respects game
It was heartwarming to see Martin Maldonado pay tribute to former teammate Jose Abreu by sinking his batting average to .079 (Abreu wears number 79). No, no, that wasn’t it. Even by Maldonado standards his offense has plunged to new depths of ineptitude. Now batting .076 with the White Sox, Maldonado has seven hits in 92 at bats this season. He has struck out 37 times in those 92 at bats. Maldonado recently started wearing glasses. No punchline attached.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.