THE PALLILOG
The minefield Astros GM must navigate with trade targets now crystal clear
Jun 6, 2024, 10:45 am
Adding another starter pitcher is a must. Composite Getty Image.
Major League Baseball players always enjoy a day off, even guys or teams on a hot streak, since days off are not plentiful over the six months of the regular season. The Astros no doubt savor Thursday’s respite a little more than usual since it comes at the end of a stretch of having played 29 games in 30 days. The Astros went 16-13 over the 29 games, which is okay, but absolutely not a good enough win rate over the remaining 99 games on their schedule to make the postseason for an eighth year in a row.
Failing to finish off a sweep of the Cardinals has the Astros opening the weekend in Anaheim with their record seven games under .500 at 28-35. As I put it on our Stone Cold 'Stros podcast this week, the great golfer/philosopher Ty Webb would characterize the Astros by saying “You're not.....you're not.....you're not good.” The last time the Astros were within four games of even-Steven they were 4-8. They then gave up 36 runs over their next three games in losing them all to tumble to 4-11. Since then the Astros have gone 24-24. Meh. It’s time for the Astros to mount a charge toward the break-even mark if they are serious about getting back to the playoffs. After finishing up with the crappy Angels, the Astros move up the California coast for three at the losing San Francisco Giants. Splitting the six-game trip wouldn’t be awful, but it’s not a good trip unless the Astros take at least four of the six. Six of their next eight series are against an opponent currently carrying a losing record.
No time to waste
Not helpful to the cause, the loss well into the 2025 season of pitcher Cristian Javier thanks to Tommy John surgery. After the usual Astros’ annoying obfuscation in discussing injuries, the reality settles in of a big blow to their starting rotation. Javier is in year two of his five year 64 million dollar contract extension. Jose Urquidy is also done courtesy of his own blown-out elbow, though in his case expecting much this season was more hope than reasonable expectation. Urquidy has no contractual safety net. He is arbitration eligible for 2025, but the Astros could well non-tender Urquidy and make him a free agent.
General Manager Dana Brown should be kicking tires left and right trying to add a back of the rotation starter. Luis Garcia is making strides in his Tommy John recovery, but is at best more than a month away. Quality performance upon return is very far from a given. Who knows re: Lance McCullers. It’s not as if the Astros are inoculated against injury or performance issues with the remaining healthy guys. Regularly starting 41-year-old Justin Verlander on four days rest isn’t a wise plan. Back-to-back poor starts aren’t catastrophic, but regression from Ronel Blanco was inevitable. There was no chance of Blanco pitching to the 1.99 earned run average guy he was over his first nine starts. Hunter Brown has met the definition of “quality start” in his last three outings. Spencer Arrighetti’s command is still not nearly good enough but he shows legit promise. Framber Valdez still induces agita more often than ideally would be the case, but he’s been solid to excellent in five of his seven starts since returning from the injured list.
On the plus side, Yainer Diaz ended a distressingly long stretch where he hit more like Brad Ausmus than the young Mike Piazza power impression he put forth last year. 13 games into his season Diaz was batting .333 with three home runs. 39 games played and 142 at bats later, Yainer was still sitting on three homers with a pitiful .529 OPS over those 39 games. Now Yainer has gone deep in three consecutive games.
Since last week’s column, it’s been another minus week on the books for Jose Altuve. Over his last 28 games Altuve is batting .219. He has struck out a shocking 28 times in those 28 games. Altuve’s OPS for the season has sagged to .783. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season in which Altuve was terrible, the last year he finished with an OPS below .812 was 2013 (.678). 2013 is the only full-length season of Altuve’s magnificent career in which he wasn’t a good player. A .783 OPS is good, but also a precipitous drop from the .921 and .915 Altuve posted the past two seasons.
If you knew nothing about the Astros other than that they trotted out a lineup June 5 with Jake Meyers batting cleanup and Jon Singleton fifth, you’d likely think “Yikes!” There they were Wednesday. Get well soon Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. Like, immediately. Meyers’s hot streak was a good story but he has flattened out with just five hits in his last 34 at bats (.147 average). The Singleton/Jose Abreu job share at first base is increasingly sad.
Game respects game
It was heartwarming to see Martin Maldonado pay tribute to former teammate Jose Abreu by sinking his batting average to .079 (Abreu wears number 79). No, no, that wasn’t it. Even by Maldonado standards his offense has plunged to new depths of ineptitude. Now batting .076 with the White Sox, Maldonado has seven hits in 92 at bats this season. He has struck out 37 times in those 92 at bats. Maldonado recently started wearing glasses. No punchline attached.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
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