ASTROS HOT STOVE
How the Astros most challenging offseason obstacle is a matter of philosophy
Dec 13, 2022, 3:58 pm
Free agents may not get the playing time they want if they sign with Houston. Composite image by Jack Brame.
With Dusty Baker's Astros return looking imminent, this should be his first order of business
As the free agency period continues in Major League Baseball, the Houston Astros have seen targets, such as Willson Contreras and now former team catcher Christian Vázquez sign with different teams leaving the reigning champions with voids to fill.
During the team’s introductory press conference for first baseman José Abreu, owner Jim Crane said outfield and catcher were two areas Houston was looking to improve in. Since then, not only have the Astros lost out on key targets, but they have actually seen the catcher position thin out, not only with the loss of Vázquez, but the retirement of Jason Castro as well.
According to reports around the league, there are various players that could be on the trading block, which is another way for the Houston Astros to improve. In particular, a name that has been linked with Houston is Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Daulton Varsho.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks have engaged in trade talks about Varsho, but the asking price remains steep.
The dormant trade market is finally waking up.
The Houston #Astros and Arizona #Dbacks have engaged in trade talks about Dbacks outfielder Daulton Varsho. The asking price remains steep.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 12, 2022
The question for the Astros is how steep is too steep? It is clear that Crane’s mindset is to compete for another World Series Championship in 2023.
Would Houston be willing to part with one of its young key players, such as pitchers Hunter Brown or Cristian Javier, or even the unthinkable, Jeremy Peña? Probably not. Would Houston be able to sell to Arizona a package not centered around at least one of those key pieces? Who knows.
How aggressive Houston is all depends on how big the ownership and those making the decisions in the front office believe the void is in the outfield and at catcher.
Varsho’s numbers in 2022 were .235/.302/.443 with 27 home runs. As the two sides continue to negotiate, one thing has become clear, Houston is not as confident that it has a Peña-level player waiting in its farm system to plug in and play at those positions in 2023.
When Carlos Correa left for Minnesota last season, the Astros went to Peña without much of a second thought in regard to the shortstop position. That has not been the case with Houston this offseason, at least when factoring the reports.
Houston has Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee as other catchers on the payroll for 2023. The Astros also have Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Kyle Tucker as designated outfield players. Houston fans know that Dusty Baker will also move Yordan Alvarez into left field as well.
While Meyers and McCormick have been around the Astros and made plays for the team, especially McCormick’s epic World Series Game Five catch, they are far from irreplaceable.
The same can be said for catcher. Diaz’ numbers in the minors in 2022 were .306/.356/.542 while in six games in the majors they fell to .125/.222/.250. For Lee it was .238/.307/.483 in the minors and .160/.192/.240 in 12 games for the Astros in the majors during the 2022 season.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle, specifically at catcher, for free agents is Baker’s management philosophy. The skipper values the defense and leadership of Martin Maldonaldo, and any catcher that signed with Houston would have to split reps with the veteran catcher.
Former San Diego Padres catcher Jorge Alfaro remains a free agent that Houston could pursue while the group in the outfield position has thinned.
According to USA Today, the Toronto Blue Jays are willing to move one of their three catchers in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. Toronto could be another option for Houston to trade with.
Once again, how aggressive the Astros are, will depend on how big of a void Crane and the front office believe there is on the roster.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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