A lockout appears unavoidable! Photo via: Wiki Commons.
Looming over baseball is a likely lockout in December 2026, a possible management push for a salary cap and perhaps lost regular-season games for the first time since 1995.
“No one’s talking about it, but we all know that they’re going to lock us out for it, and then we’re going to miss time,” New York Mets All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso said Monday at the All-Star Game. “We’re definitely going to fight to not have a salary cap and the league’s obviously not going to like that.”
Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred and some owners have cited payroll disparity as a problem, while at the same time MLB is working to address a revenue decline from regional sports networks. Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball has never had a salary cap because its players staunchly oppose one.
Despite higher levels of luxury tax that started in 2022, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have pushed payrolls to record levels. The last small-market MLB club to win a World Series was the Kansas City Royals in 2015.
After signing outfielder Juan Soto to a record $765 million contract, New York opened this season with an industry-high $326 million payroll, nearly five times Miami’s $69 million, according to Major League Baseball’s figures. Using luxury tax payrolls, based on average annual values that account for future commitments and include benefits, the Dodgers were first at $400 million and on track to owe a record luxury tax of about $151 million — shattering the previous tax record of $103 million set by Los Angeles last year.
“When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” Manfred told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “I identify a problem in the media business and explain to them that owners need to change to address that problem. I then identify a second problem that we need to work together and that is that there are fans in a lot of our markets who feel like we have a competitive balance problem.”
Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2026, and management lockouts have become the norm, which shifts the start of a stoppage to the offseason. During the last negotiations, the sides reached a five-year deal on March 10 after a 99-day lockout, salvaging a 162-game 2022 season.
“A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game,” union head Tony Clark said Tuesday. “A cap is about franchise values and profits. ... A salary cap historically has limited contract guarantees associated with it, literally pits one player against another and is often what we share with players as the definitive non-competitive system. It doesn’t reward excellence. It undermines it from an organizational standpoint. That’s why this is not about competitive balance. It’s not about a fair versus not. This is institutionalized collusion.”
The union’s opposition to a cap has paved the way for record-breaking salaries for star players. Soto’s deal is believed to be the richest in pro sports history, eclipsing Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers signed a year earlier. By comparison, the biggest guaranteed contract in the NFL is $250 million for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Manfred cites that 10% of players earn 72% of salaries.
“I never use the word `salary’ within one of `cap,’” he said. “What I do say to them is in addressing this competitive issue that’s real we should think about whether this system is the perfect system from a players’ perspective.”
A management salary cap proposal could contain a salary floor and a guaranteed percentage of revenue to players. Baseball players have endured nine work stoppages, including a 7 1/2-month strike in 1994-95 that fought off a cap proposal.
Agent Scott Boras likens a cap plan to attracting kids to a “gingerbread house.”
“We’ve heard it for 20 years. It’s almost like the childhood fable,” he said. “This very traditional, same approach is not something that would lead the younger players to the gingerbread house.”
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After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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