THE PALLILOG
Here's why you could see something bold from the Astros in the very near future
Nov 23, 2022, 12:17 pm
Will the Astros spend big on Justin Verlander? Composite image by Jack Brame.
With the holiday season upon us, the song says it’s the most wonderful time of the year. On the pro sports front in Houston it’s mixed holiday tidings. The Astros continue to bring joy to the Houston sports world, their second World Series crown is a gift that will keep on giving for many around here. The Texans and Rockets are two turkeys. Two rancid foul-tasting fowls. Here’s one simple numerical way of looking at things. The Astros won four games with two losses in beating the Phillies to win the World Series. The Texans and Rockets have combined in their seasons to date for four wins and 22 losses (and one tie). Has a city ever had one of its big league teams be so great while all the others were so pathetic (if you’d like you can include the Dynamo in the dreck pile)?
Baseball’s Winter Meetings convene in less than two weeks. Does Astros’ General Manager (errrrr, lead owner) Jim Crane have a major move up his sleeve? It seems part of Crane’s professional disdain for James Click relative to Jeff Luhnow was Click’s lack of bold strikes. Upgrading at first base from Yuli Gurriel to Jose Abreu would be solid but I wouldn’t call it bold. Likewise signing or trading for a left-handed hitting centerfielder. Going to three years 125 million dollars to keep Justin Verlander would be bold.
We are Texans?
Do you know that the Astros scored more than 20 runs in a game this year as many times as the Texans have scored more than 20 points in a game? Now you do. It’s one time apiece. In an August laugher the Astros pasted the White Sox 21-5. The Texans generally get laughed at. Naturally, the Texans lone game topping 20 came in a loss, 34-24 to the Chargers. The last time the Texans scored more than 17 points in a game, Texas A&M’s season wasn’t yet a full-blown debacle. That would be October 23.
Some guys are late bloomers, others are non-bloomers. Davis Mills looks like the latter. Nick Caserio’s first draft choice (a third rounder) has shown nothing to indicate he is a quality NFL quarterback in development. He’s 13th in the NFL in pass attempts, number one in interceptions thrown. He’s 30th in the often dubious official quarterback rating, and 30th in the better methodized QBR. You walk like a duck, talk like a duck, and throw enough wounded ducks, you’re probably a dead duck in terms of upside. While the Texans’ offensive line is still too often sieve-like, it’s not as if Mills has nothing adequate around him. Running back Dameon Pierce is in the mix for best offensive rookie in the league. Brandin “Sure I happily signed a contract extension with a garbage team but now get me outta here!” Cooks and Nico Collins make up an at least decent tandem of wide receivers.
With every other team in the NFL having at least three wins and the Texans quite possibly not getting two more wins to reach three, the number one pick in the 2023 Draft is almost certainly theirs. Helllllloooo Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. The Texans almost have to go QB this spring, though the top of the 2024 QB draft class may be stronger with USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye. It’s not that the Texans taking a stud defender like Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson or Georgia defensive tackle beast Jalen Carter would be a poor choice, but without a decent QB you’re nothing. Imagine if the Texans pass on Young and Stroud but next season stumble into five wins and pick fourth or fifth in the 2024 Draft. They would then be out of the mix for Williams and Maye unless paying a king’s ransom to move up.
Failure to launch
Unless I missed one in passing some time researching it, no franchise in NBA history has finished with the worst record in the league three consecutive seasons. The Rockets have a shot. They finished dead last the last two seasons and their pitiful 3-14 start this season has them back in the NBA basement. The Rockets play defense about as well as the Texans play offense. Youth isn’t an eternal excuse. The progress under Head Coach Stephen Silas has been minimal. For all of Kyrie Irving’s narcissistic BS and overall Brooklyn Nets dysfunction they still have a much better team than the Rockets. If the Nets make the playoffs, or if they miss the playoffs but don’t leapfrog the Rockets in the draft lottery, for the second time in three years the Rockets first round draft pick swap rights with the Nets acquired in the James Harden trade will be rendered worthless.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving. And be reeeeeally thankful for the Houston Astros.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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