THE PALLILOG
A glimpse of promise emerges after a string of Astros disappointments
Apr 18, 2024, 3:07 pm
The Astros are lucky they play in the AL West. Composite Getty Image.
No, we have not been transported back in time to 2012 and are again stuck with an atrocity of an Astros team heading for well over 100 losses. I’m pretty sure anyway, even though the Astros are in our nation’s capital for the weekend looking so far this season about as dysfunctional as the federal government often seems to be. At 6-14 this is a dung heap of a squad to this point. The Astros are two and a half games behind the A’s! The rightfully heralded back end of the bullpen has already lost four games the Astros have led after six innings. They are 5-4 in games they led after six, which is awful.
Last season the Astros were a good team, not close to a great team. The 2023 Astros finished 72-6 in games they led after six. Then there’s the offense which has some nice raw stats, but been weak with runners in scoring position (.686 OPS ranks 19th among the 30 Major League teams), weaker with runners in scoring position with two outs (.631 ranks 22nd), and demonstrated meager come from behind ability. The Astros have zero wins in games they have trailed after six (0-8). They are 0-5 in one-run games. But hey, good thing they kept the roof closed for all six games of another failed homestand. Going back to last season the gruesome ledger over the Astros last 42 home games reads 11 wins 31 losses.
As bad as things have been, those already seeking a priest to administer last rites for this season, chill! Be worried, be angry if you’d like, but chill. At least a little. The Astros are fortunate that no one is off to a great start in the American League West, the worst division in MLB over the season’s first three weeks. Obviously the Astros need to pick it up, or they will wind up dead and buried, but the plug will not be pulled on playoff chances in April. They have stunk, but it is also a fact that over the 20 game flop start, the Astros have played zero games against a team currently carrying a losing record. Furthermore, on the subject of 20 game schedule portions, the Texas Rangers had a 20 game stretch last season over which they went 4-16.
JV returns
41-year-old Justin Verlander will be no savior, but starting his regular season Friday night at the Nationals is certainly a welcome sight. We’ll see when Framber Valdez returns. This is the Astros’ second series in Washington D.C. since sweeping three games there during the 2019 World Series. Then they came home, yada, yada, yada. In the four seasons since, the Astros have been to four more American League Championship series and won it all for the second time in 2022. Since taking down the Astros to win the 2019 Fall Classic, the Nationals have posted four straight last place finishes in the National League East. The Nats are off to an 8-10 start this season.
Altuve has been a bright spot
Once before, Jose Altuve has finished April with his OPS over 1.000. 2016 was the season in which he elevated from star to superstar. Altuve awoke May 1, 2016 batting “only” .305 but with an OPS of 1.011. With nine games left this month the numbers could change markedly, but wow what a start to 2024 for him. Altuve carries a .388 batting average into the weekend with an OPS of 1.137. That’s a whopping 225 points higher than Yordan Alvarez’s second best on the team OPS of .912. Of course Altuve won’t finish batting near .388 but if wondering what’s the target number if a career best is in play, in Altuve’s AL Most Valuable Player Award-winning 2017 season he wound up batting .346 which won his third AL batting title. The under on .346 for this year is the highly likely outcome, but wouldn’t feel totally comfortable emptying out the retirement fund to bet on it.
The Abreu dilemma
Between Manager Joe Espada and General Manager Dana Brown I believe they have blown through their 2024 quota of “look at the back of his baseball card” references to pedantically expect everyone to believe that hapless Jose Abreu will be just fine. Jeff Bagwell has used that line too. Guess what fellas? Take a look at the back of Bagwell’s baseball card. He was an awesome offensive player. Until he wasn’t. Ditto Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and a multitude of other players greater than Abreu was at his best and better at their worst than this mess Abreu is now. At some point, washed up is washed up.
Here's a plausible Abreu scenario. He comes up with “back problems” and goes to the Injured List. That’s followed by a handful of games with Sugar Land and/or Corpus Christi. Then he rejoins the Astros. If he then resumes performing at or close to the rotting corpse level of performance he’s produced through the first 20 games, then the Astros release him. Obviously, Jim Crane prefers to not cut checks of 35 million dollars to Abreu for him to not play for the Astros. Paying him to continue to play is worse. It’s doubling down on damage.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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