THE PALLILOG
A glimpse of promise emerges after a string of Astros disappointments
Apr 18, 2024, 3:07 pm
The Astros are lucky they play in the AL West. Composite Getty Image.
No, we have not been transported back in time to 2012 and are again stuck with an atrocity of an Astros team heading for well over 100 losses. I’m pretty sure anyway, even though the Astros are in our nation’s capital for the weekend looking so far this season about as dysfunctional as the federal government often seems to be. At 6-14 this is a dung heap of a squad to this point. The Astros are two and a half games behind the A’s! The rightfully heralded back end of the bullpen has already lost four games the Astros have led after six innings. They are 5-4 in games they led after six, which is awful.
Last season the Astros were a good team, not close to a great team. The 2023 Astros finished 72-6 in games they led after six. Then there’s the offense which has some nice raw stats, but been weak with runners in scoring position (.686 OPS ranks 19th among the 30 Major League teams), weaker with runners in scoring position with two outs (.631 ranks 22nd), and demonstrated meager come from behind ability. The Astros have zero wins in games they have trailed after six (0-8). They are 0-5 in one-run games. But hey, good thing they kept the roof closed for all six games of another failed homestand. Going back to last season the gruesome ledger over the Astros last 42 home games reads 11 wins 31 losses.
As bad as things have been, those already seeking a priest to administer last rites for this season, chill! Be worried, be angry if you’d like, but chill. At least a little. The Astros are fortunate that no one is off to a great start in the American League West, the worst division in MLB over the season’s first three weeks. Obviously the Astros need to pick it up, or they will wind up dead and buried, but the plug will not be pulled on playoff chances in April. They have stunk, but it is also a fact that over the 20 game flop start, the Astros have played zero games against a team currently carrying a losing record. Furthermore, on the subject of 20 game schedule portions, the Texas Rangers had a 20 game stretch last season over which they went 4-16.
JV returns
41-year-old Justin Verlander will be no savior, but starting his regular season Friday night at the Nationals is certainly a welcome sight. We’ll see when Framber Valdez returns. This is the Astros’ second series in Washington D.C. since sweeping three games there during the 2019 World Series. Then they came home, yada, yada, yada. In the four seasons since, the Astros have been to four more American League Championship series and won it all for the second time in 2022. Since taking down the Astros to win the 2019 Fall Classic, the Nationals have posted four straight last place finishes in the National League East. The Nats are off to an 8-10 start this season.
Altuve has been a bright spot
Once before, Jose Altuve has finished April with his OPS over 1.000. 2016 was the season in which he elevated from star to superstar. Altuve awoke May 1, 2016 batting “only” .305 but with an OPS of 1.011. With nine games left this month the numbers could change markedly, but wow what a start to 2024 for him. Altuve carries a .388 batting average into the weekend with an OPS of 1.137. That’s a whopping 225 points higher than Yordan Alvarez’s second best on the team OPS of .912. Of course Altuve won’t finish batting near .388 but if wondering what’s the target number if a career best is in play, in Altuve’s AL Most Valuable Player Award-winning 2017 season he wound up batting .346 which won his third AL batting title. The under on .346 for this year is the highly likely outcome, but wouldn’t feel totally comfortable emptying out the retirement fund to bet on it.
The Abreu dilemma
Between Manager Joe Espada and General Manager Dana Brown I believe they have blown through their 2024 quota of “look at the back of his baseball card” references to pedantically expect everyone to believe that hapless Jose Abreu will be just fine. Jeff Bagwell has used that line too. Guess what fellas? Take a look at the back of Bagwell’s baseball card. He was an awesome offensive player. Until he wasn’t. Ditto Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and a multitude of other players greater than Abreu was at his best and better at their worst than this mess Abreu is now. At some point, washed up is washed up.
Here's a plausible Abreu scenario. He comes up with “back problems” and goes to the Injured List. That’s followed by a handful of games with Sugar Land and/or Corpus Christi. Then he rejoins the Astros. If he then resumes performing at or close to the rotting corpse level of performance he’s produced through the first 20 games, then the Astros release him. Obviously, Jim Crane prefers to not cut checks of 35 million dollars to Abreu for him to not play for the Astros. Paying him to continue to play is worse. It’s doubling down on damage.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The Houston Texans continue to build one of the NFL’s most intriguing wide receiver rooms — and according to Yahoo Sports analyst Matt Harmon, their new rookie additions bring more than just depth. Harmon offered insight into how the Texans might creatively deploy second-round pick Jayden Higgins and third-rounder Jaylin Noel, two players with contrasting skill sets who could carve out meaningful roles in Nick Caley's (formerly with the Rams) offense.
At first glance, Higgins fits the traditional mold of an outside receiver. At 6-foot-4 and 214 pounds, he lined up mostly as an X receiver in college and looked the part physically. But Harmon suggests that Higgins might actually be a better fit as a power slot — a big-bodied interior option who can do damage against zone coverage, similar to how the Rams used Cooper Kupp in his prime.
That role makes sense in Houston. The Texans already have one of the league’s premier outside receivers in Nico Collins, and there’s no pressure to force Higgins into a role that doesn’t maximize his skill set. According to data from Reception Perception, Higgins struggled against tight coverage in college, finishing in just the 15th percentile in success rate versus man and 16th percentile versus press. Letting Higgins attack softer coverages from the slot could be the key to unlocking his full potential.
Still, Higgins might not even be the most impactful rookie receiver the Texans landed.
While Higgins came in with the size and profile of a prototypical NFL wideout, Noel quietly outproduced him in 2024 at Iowa State and was quite often more feared by opponents. Noel’s game is built around separation and quickness — and despite being under six feet tall, there's confidence that he can play both inside and outside at the pro level. His 74.1 percent success rate versus man coverage speaks to his advanced route-running, which could earn him early targets in Houston’s pass-heavy scheme.
With Collins, Christian Kirk, Higgins, and Noel, the Texans suddenly have a flexible, matchup-proof receiving group that can attack every level of the field. If C.J. Stroud takes another step in year three, this offense could become even more dangerous — with its rookie receivers helping push it over the top.
Be sure to check out the video below to watch Harmon's full breakdown of the Texans receivers, and much more!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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