THE PALLILOG

3 reasons the Astros can stay red-hot after turning the corner

May 18, 2023, 1:34 pm

They're back! Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.

Hell about froze over when the Chicago Cubs won the 2016 World Series, 108 years after their previous title. The Astros snapped their franchise-long championship drought of 55 years by winning it all the following year. Five years after the Cubs won it in ’16 they lost 91 games. Five years after the Astros won it in ’17, they won it again last fall. Now, the Cubs are likely heading for a third straight losing season. We’ll see where the Astros end up in 2023, but they are yet again a serious World Series contender. The Astros sweeping three from the Cubbies at Minute Maid Park this week should be the last time this season the Astros start a series facing the possibility of slipping below .500. Now at 24-19, the Astros are tucked just two games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West. The Rangers play host to the National League West cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies this weekend.

A's on the schedule and Jose Altuve returns?

The Astros’ good times should keep rolling as they now get the chance to slaughter the Oakland Athletics. Not that the Astros should need a boost vs. Oakland but it appears they will get one with Jose Altuve getting to start his season following recovery of his broken right thumb. You never know in one game or in a best-of-three (the Astros were fantastic last year and the A’s were trash, yet last July the A’s took five of six games from the Astros), but anything less than an Astros’ sweep will feel like a failure.

The A’s are an absurdly bad 10-35. If their .222 winning percentage plays out season-long, the A’s will finish with 36 wins and 126 losses. That would be the worst record for any Major League Baseball team since 1900. The Athletics’ franchise already owns the dubious distinction with the 1916 Philadelphia A’s setting the ineptitude standard at 36-117. Those are the A’s who moved to Kansas City in 1955, to Oakland in 1968, and now plan to move to Las Vegas within the next few years. It should be a great weekend for the Astros’ to boost their thus far disappointing offensive numbers. Oakland’s team earned run average this season is a “you must be kidding me” 7.13. And that’s an improvement from the 7.72 mark the Oakland staff had at the end of April! A’s starting pitchers entered May with a combined 0-15 record and 8.51 ERA. That sounds impossible.

As a total laughingstock, it’s incredible that Oakland has one guy in its lineup with better numbers than Yordan Alvarez has this season, and another with numbers better than any Astro other than Alvarez. 28-year-old journeyman Brent Rooker opened this season with a career batting average of .200 and a career OPS of .668. That’s a bad player. So far in 2023 Rooker is batting .295 with a whopping 1.013 OPS. Alvarez checks in with a .939 OPS. The devil might be collecting Rooker’s soul any week now.

Then there’s 27 year old first baseman Brent Noda who had never sniffed the big leagues until making the A’s this spring. Kyle Tucker has the Astros’ second best OPS at .798. Noda is batting just .215 but his OPS is .821 because he has drawn walks at an astounding rate. Noda has 107 at bats and 30 walks drawn. That’s the same number of walks that Jose Abreu, Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena, and Jake Meyers have drawn combined with 589 at bats. The A’s claimed Noda off of waivers from the Dodgers in December and are paying him the Major League minimum salary of 720 thousand dollars. Abreu makes more than 720 thousand dollars per week with his 19 and a half million dollar seasonal take.

Much more reflective of the Athletics’ overall team are the atrocious numbers of former Astros Tony Kemp and Aledmys Diaz. By comparison they make Abreu's play look not so dismal, no small feat. The one-time popular “Hugs for Homers” guy (Kemp) is batting a paltry .169 with a .491 OPS. Diaz has been worse. Aledmys signed with Oakland for regular playing time and two years 14 million dollars. Unfortunately Diaz picked up with the A’s as if it was the 2022 postseason during which he didn’t hit worth half a darn. Diaz sits with a .165 batting average and .445 OPS. At least Diaz isn’t hurting Oakland’s playoff hopes. Diaz does get his World Series ring Friday night.

Bring on the lefties!

Whether Dusty Baker had a late night epiphany, someone got through to him, or other, it’s a good development that Dusty seems done with the doofy concept that he must have right-handed hitting Abreu in between lefties Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Next, maybe he gets that it’s time to shift more starting catching duties from Martin Maldonado to Yainer Diaz to give Diaz a real chance to produce. Diaz is obviously the better hitter, he throws better, and for all of Maldonado’s behind the plate sagacity the Astros’ earned run average so far this season is lower with Diaz catching than with Maldy.

More Astros coverage? Yes, please!

Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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THE PALLILOG

By the numbers: How Dusty Baker's rationale doesn't match Astros results

Numbers don't lie. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros better be mindful. The Texas Rangers are better than the Astros right now because while the Rangers’ offense has been awesome, the Astros’ attack continues to rate as screamingly average. The Rangers have opened up a four and a half game lead over the Astros in the American League West. 27 games represent one-sixth of the regular season schedule. Over their last 27 games the Astros have gone 19-8. Extrapolated over 162 games that’s awesome 114 win baseball. Over those 27 games the Astros have gained zero ground in the standings on the Rangers.

While 19-8 is an impressive stretch no matter what, it is notable that within that stretch the Astros went 11-1 versus the A’s, Cubs, and White Sox, three bad teams. Winning five of six from the mediocre Angels was good, particularly beating Shohei Ohtani twice. The Astros lost two out of three to the Brewers, lost two out of three to the Twins, and need a getaway win in Toronto to gain a split with the Blue Jays.

Maybe the Rangers will be akin to the 1979 Astros, rising but not quite ready yet. July 4, 1979 the Astros led the Reds by 10 and a half games in the National League West. Reds’ pitcher and top 10 greatest pitcher ever Tom Seaver said no worries, the Astros would “fall like a lead balloon” in the second half. The Reds won the division. Here is one stat that points toward Rangers' slippage: as a team they are batting a preposterous .335 with runners in scoring position. No way that holds up all season. The Astros and Rangers have a four game series in Arlington starting June 30. That series looms as much more important to the Astros than one would have thought back in spring training.

Here's the catch

Dusty Baker this week offered his most elaborate explanation for his playing time split at catcher. It was largely balderdash. Thursday’s series finale in Toronto is Martin Maldonado's 45th start behind the plate. Yainer Diaz has 15 starts, Cesar Salazar three. Dusty talked of how there is more to the catching position than hitting. Fair point. His “points” deteriorated from there. It’s definitely attention getting that General Manager Dana Brown has publicly acknowledged talking with Baker about Diaz playing more. Good for Dana.

Let’s leave aside that Maldonado is a lousy offensive player, while Diaz brims with potential and recently has translated some of that potential into results. The Astros’ record is better with Diaz catching than with Maldonado. The pitchers’ earned run average is better when Diaz catches. The “Machete” blade has dulled. Maldonado has thrown out just six of 28 base stealers. Diaz has nailed seven of 18. Maldonado has three passed balls (and at least a couple more that were generously for him scored wild pitches), Diaz has none. All upside growth lies with Diaz.

Dusty sees it as tough to have rookie pitchers throwing to a rookie catcher. I guess if they stink that’s true. Especially dubious is Dusty’s “point” in having Maldonado catch Hunter Brown’s last six starts so that should Diaz get hurt, Maldonado wouldn’t have to start catching Brown with little familiarity. How about the inverse? Diaz catching all the other starters more so that should the approaching 37 years old Maldonado break down, Diaz is more up to speed. Oh, Brown’s earned run average over those six starts with Maldonado is 4.81. Over his first six starts, five of them pitching to Diaz, Brown’s ERA was 2.60.

Wednesday Dusty gave Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena the night off. Nothing wrong with that. The 29-year-old Bregman had played in all 61 games this season to date, the 25-year-old Pena in 60 of 61. Meanwhile, 36-year-old season long disaster Jose Abreu was penciled into the starting lineup for the 60^th time in 62 games. Abreu’s ended the night with his OPS at .534. He is the worst player in the Major Leagues getting everyday run. Thursday marks his 61st start in 63 games. Another spot where Diaz should be getting more time.

All eyes on Texas

Some more on those Rangers, who last season finished 68-94. They are now 40-21, and that with their desperate five year 185 million dollar contract dice roll on pitcher Jacob deGrom crapping out. deGrom finishes with all of six starts and now faces a second Tommy John surgery that could sideline him until 2025. One of the very few pitchers to ever pitch viably again after two Tommy John surgeries is Alvin native Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers gave him 34 million guaranteed for two years, which so far is the best signing of the offseason. Eovaldi has been every bit as good as Framber Valdez.

Will he hold up is a very fair and very important question. Since 2015, only in 2021 has Eovaldi topped 125 innings in a season. He’s on pace for about 200 this year. Overall, Rangers’ starting pitchers have a lower ERA than Astros’ starters. The Rangers weakness is their bullpen. There is virtually no doubt they will strengthen it by the trade deadline. Their offense has had no weaknesses. Only one team since 1950 (1999 Indians) has amassed more than 1000 runs in a season. About 40 percent of the way through this season the Rangers are on pace for 1025. Going position by position, Yordan Alvarez remains the only Astro who would crack the Ranger lineup so far this year.

Reminder that there are no one game tiebreakers to decide division titles or wild card spots. Season series winners win out. Astros-Jays Thursday outcome decides the season series. It’s conceivable that could be very important come season’s end.

Get your Astros fix every Monday!

Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as: