THE PALLILOG

3 reasons the Astros can stay red-hot after turning the corner

3 reasons the Astros can stay red-hot after turning the corner
They're back! Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
Altuve's late homer helps lift Astros over Yankees in finale

Hell about froze over when the Chicago Cubs won the 2016 World Series, 108 years after their previous title. The Astros snapped their franchise-long championship drought of 55 years by winning it all the following year. Five years after the Cubs won it in ’16 they lost 91 games. Five years after the Astros won it in ’17, they won it again last fall. Now, the Cubs are likely heading for a third straight losing season. We’ll see where the Astros end up in 2023, but they are yet again a serious World Series contender. The Astros sweeping three from the Cubbies at Minute Maid Park this week should be the last time this season the Astros start a series facing the possibility of slipping below .500. Now at 24-19, the Astros are tucked just two games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West. The Rangers play host to the National League West cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies this weekend.

A's on the schedule and Jose Altuve returns?

The Astros’ good times should keep rolling as they now get the chance to slaughter the Oakland Athletics. Not that the Astros should need a boost vs. Oakland but it appears they will get one with Jose Altuve getting to start his season following recovery of his broken right thumb. You never know in one game or in a best-of-three (the Astros were fantastic last year and the A’s were trash, yet last July the A’s took five of six games from the Astros), but anything less than an Astros’ sweep will feel like a failure.

The A’s are an absurdly bad 10-35. If their .222 winning percentage plays out season-long, the A’s will finish with 36 wins and 126 losses. That would be the worst record for any Major League Baseball team since 1900. The Athletics’ franchise already owns the dubious distinction with the 1916 Philadelphia A’s setting the ineptitude standard at 36-117. Those are the A’s who moved to Kansas City in 1955, to Oakland in 1968, and now plan to move to Las Vegas within the next few years. It should be a great weekend for the Astros’ to boost their thus far disappointing offensive numbers. Oakland’s team earned run average this season is a “you must be kidding me” 7.13. And that’s an improvement from the 7.72 mark the Oakland staff had at the end of April! A’s starting pitchers entered May with a combined 0-15 record and 8.51 ERA. That sounds impossible.

As a total laughingstock, it’s incredible that Oakland has one guy in its lineup with better numbers than Yordan Alvarez has this season, and another with numbers better than any Astro other than Alvarez. 28-year-old journeyman Brent Rooker opened this season with a career batting average of .200 and a career OPS of .668. That’s a bad player. So far in 2023 Rooker is batting .295 with a whopping 1.013 OPS. Alvarez checks in with a .939 OPS. The devil might be collecting Rooker’s soul any week now.

Then there’s 27 year old first baseman Brent Noda who had never sniffed the big leagues until making the A’s this spring. Kyle Tucker has the Astros’ second best OPS at .798. Noda is batting just .215 but his OPS is .821 because he has drawn walks at an astounding rate. Noda has 107 at bats and 30 walks drawn. That’s the same number of walks that Jose Abreu, Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena, and Jake Meyers have drawn combined with 589 at bats. The A’s claimed Noda off of waivers from the Dodgers in December and are paying him the Major League minimum salary of 720 thousand dollars. Abreu makes more than 720 thousand dollars per week with his 19 and a half million dollar seasonal take.

Much more reflective of the Athletics’ overall team are the atrocious numbers of former Astros Tony Kemp and Aledmys Diaz. By comparison they make Abreu's play look not so dismal, no small feat. The one-time popular “Hugs for Homers” guy (Kemp) is batting a paltry .169 with a .491 OPS. Diaz has been worse. Aledmys signed with Oakland for regular playing time and two years 14 million dollars. Unfortunately Diaz picked up with the A’s as if it was the 2022 postseason during which he didn’t hit worth half a darn. Diaz sits with a .165 batting average and .445 OPS. At least Diaz isn’t hurting Oakland’s playoff hopes. Diaz does get his World Series ring Friday night.

Bring on the lefties!

Whether Dusty Baker had a late night epiphany, someone got through to him, or other, it’s a good development that Dusty seems done with the doofy concept that he must have right-handed hitting Abreu in between lefties Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Next, maybe he gets that it’s time to shift more starting catching duties from Martin Maldonado to Yainer Diaz to give Diaz a real chance to produce. Diaz is obviously the better hitter, he throws better, and for all of Maldonado’s behind the plate sagacity the Astros’ earned run average so far this season is lower with Diaz catching than with Maldy.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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