THE PALLILOG
Here's everything you need to know ahead of Tigers-Astros Wild Card Series matchup
Sep 29, 2024, 11:48 pm
The Astros host the Tigers on Tuesday. Composite Getty Image.
So it’s A.J. Hinch managing the team that will try to eliminate the Astros in the best-of-three Wild Card Series that opens Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. That’s certainly a notable storyline as Hinch battles tactically with his former bench coach Joe Espada, in facing the franchise he managed to the 2017 World Series Championship, and the franchise that fired him 26 months later after Hinch’s complicity in the Astros’ cheating scandal came to light.
As covered in the most recent column, momentum means nothing heading into this series. That’s a good thing because the Tigers stormed down the stretch with a 31-11 record before pretty much no-showing their last two games against the laughingstock White Sox after Friday night celebrating securing their first playoff spot since 2014. Had the Tigers won one of them the Astros would be playing the Kansas City Royals. Oh well. It’s not like the Royals would have been a significantly easier opponent, if easier at all.
Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez
Apart from Yordan Alvarez’s sprained knee rendering dubious his ability to perform entering the postseason, the biggest “uh oh” for the Astros going into the shortest of playoff series is facing Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal in game one. With due credit to the brilliant season of Guardians’ closer Emmanuel Clase, any American League Cy Young vote for any one other than Skubal is stupid. He went 18-4, leading the AL in earned run average at 2.39, and in strikeouts with 228 in 192 innings pitched. MLB hit just .201 with a puny OPS of .558 vs. Skubal this season. Among other things, 18-4 means he’s beatable. The Astros gave Skubal one of his four losses, putting up four earned runs in six and one-third innings. The Astros won that game 4-0, with Hunter Brown throwing seven shutout innings in his hometown. Which raises another point. Skubal could be outstanding Tuesday yet have Framber Valdez outpitch him.
It will feel like if the Astros beat Skubal in game one the series is over. That is a foolhardy concept. Of course the Tigers could win games two and three.
Brown will go for the Astros in game two, and if there is a decisive game three Thursday the ball goes to Yusei Kikuchi. Ronel Blanco looms as a multi-inning bullpen threat in one game of the series. If a reliever is needed before getting to the back end of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader, Blanco is the best pitcher available and a better option than Hector Neris or anyone else.
The Tigers' game two starter would have been Jack Flaherty, except they dealt him to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. That’s another fact that makes the Tigers’ surge amazing. Second season man Reese Olson probably goes for the Tigers in game two. Brown rates a huge edge over him though in one game, as ever, you never know. If a game three, Hinch likely starts John Brieske, but with a short leash. An X-factor at Hinch’s disposal at least once in the series is Jackson Jobe, considered by many the best starting pitching prospect yet to start in the Majors. The Tigers called up Jobe for his big league debut the final week of the regular season. The 22-year-old righthander with a 101 miles-per-hour fastball pitched in four innings over two games. He gave up one hit and no runs.
Not so fast!
Reading much into Tigers’ season-long statistics is done at one’s own risk. The Tigers awoke August 11 at 55-63. They have since played as if a mostly different team. A handful of points…
Shortstop Javier Baez’s season-ending back injury was a Tiger blessing because Hinch couldn’t play him anymore. Baez has been sub-pathetic since the Tigers moronically gave him a six year 140 million dollar contract after Carlos Correa said “no thanks” to Detroit’s 10 year 275 million dollar offer after the 2021 season. It’s not as if anyone is confusing replacement Trey Sweeney with Alan Trammell, but his play has been much better than the rotting corpse production Baez was giving. The Tigers got Sweeney in the Flaherty deal with the Dodgers and called him August 16.
Oh, Sweeney is cousins with actress Sydney Sweeney. Think anyone will have eyes out for her Tuesday?
The Tigers’ other middle infielder is also a rookie. They gave the second base job to Colt Keith out of spring training and he looked utterly overmatched the first month-plus of the season. Over his first 30 games Keith hit .152 with an impossibly feeble .399 OPS. Well, he figured out stuff. From May 6 forward Keith has been a better player than Jose Altuve.
The Astros start lefty Valdez in game one and if a game three fellow lefty Kikuchi. The Tigers' two best offensive players bat left-handed…and poorly vs. southpaws. 24-year-old Tiger All-Star Riley Greene is a stud. But vs. lefties he hit just .213 with a .693 OPS. Kerry Carpenter has by far the Tigers’ best batting rate stats. Thing is, he hardly even plays against lefties. Carpenter has a .930 OPS overall. Against lefties: three for 28 (.107 average) with 10 strikeouts. Does Hinch try him against Valdez and/or Kikuchi?
No big upset is possible in a best-of-three. Of course the Astros are favored. Rightfully so given their pedigree coupled with the Tigers’ inexperience, and the Astros are the home team in every game. But the Tigers won 86 games to the Astros’ 88, and the AL Central was a better division than the West. The Cleveland Guardians await the winner for the start of a best-of-five American League Division Series Saturday.
Be sure to watch the video above for our full breakdown of Astros vs.Tigers!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday). There will be extra editions during the postseason. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Takeaways from the Tigers sweep of the Astros
Total butt kicking. The offense was dreadful, scoring just two runs over three games. However, what’s killing the offense the most is the outfield. Outside of when Altuve plays left field, Houston doesn’t have another major league-quality outfielder right now. Jesus Sanchez not only swung at a Charlie Morton curveball that hit him in the knee, he’s also ice-cold, going 0-for-28 at the plate. At least he’s someone you expect to turn things around, but he’s in a huge slump currently. Beyond him, Jacob Melton, Taylor Trammell, and Chas McCormick have all been dragging down the offense. Cam Smith is struggling too, with just one hit in his last seven games.
Is Framber Valdez going to be okay?
Starting pitching was another big issue against the Tigers, and Valdez was a key part of the problem, basically losing the finale in the first inning after allowing six runs. This isn’t an outlier—he’s got a 7+ ERA through four starts in August. Spencer Arrighetti isn’t faring much better, posting a 7+ ERA through three starts. One silver lining with Valdez: the Tigers know him well. They had success against him in the playoffs last season, and it looks like they’re continuing that formula—force him to throw strikes, hit the other way on the sinker, and if the curveball isn’t up, let it go. AJ Hinch knows the deal.
Is the return of Yordan Alvarez enough to boost the offense?
It has to be. The only real way to give this lineup a spark is getting Yordan and Jake Meyers back. Yordan had a successful first rehab outing, collecting a couple of hits, a walk, and even a stolen base. Adding him back to the top of the lineup gives the Astros a formidable top four: Peña, Altuve, Yordan, and Correa. As for Meyers, the outfield has been the biggest drag on the offense. The key is whether he can continue to hit near .300 when he returns from injury. If he does, Altuve and Meyers in the outfield makes a huge difference, and Joe Espada can figure out right field with Sanchez and Smith.
Is the schedule not as soft as anticipated?
We’ve seen some strange results across the league this week, and some of that has to be chalked up to the Dog Days of Summer. Players are tired, and results have been wild. Thankfully, the Mariners are struggling too, giving the Astros some breathing room. Player adjustments after the trade deadline could also be a factor—Sanchez, anyone? Many big free agents have struggled immediately after changing teams, Walker and Juan Soto included.
Can they recover and take advantage of bad teams?
One thing we know about this year’s Astros: they can flip the switch and win multiple series on a moment’s notice. They’re just as capable of sweeping a series as they are of getting swept. Let’s hope that starts with four wins in Baltimore.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!
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