So it’s A.J. Hinch managing the team that will try to eliminate the Astros in the best-of-three Wild Card Series that opens Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. That’s certainly a notable storyline as Hinch battles tactically with his former bench coach Joe Espada, in facing the franchise he managed to the 2017 World Series Championship, and the franchise that fired him 26 months later after Hinch’s complicity in the Astros’ cheating scandal came to light.

As covered in the most recent column, momentum means nothing heading into this series. That’s a good thing because the Tigers stormed down the stretch with a 31-11 record before pretty much no-showing their last two games against the laughingstock White Sox after Friday night celebrating securing their first playoff spot since 2014. Had the Tigers won one of them the Astros would be playing the Kansas City Royals. Oh well. It’s not like the Royals would have been a significantly easier opponent, if easier at all.

Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez

Apart from Yordan Alvarez’s sprained knee rendering dubious his ability to perform entering the postseason, the biggest “uh oh” for the Astros going into the shortest of playoff series is facing Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal in game one. With due credit to the brilliant season of Guardians’ closer Emmanuel Clase, any American League Cy Young vote for any one other than Skubal is stupid. He went 18-4, leading the AL in earned run average at 2.39, and in strikeouts with 228 in 192 innings pitched. MLB hit just .201 with a puny OPS of .558 vs. Skubal this season. Among other things, 18-4 means he’s beatable. The Astros gave Skubal one of his four losses, putting up four earned runs in six and one-third innings. The Astros won that game 4-0, with Hunter Brown throwing seven shutout innings in his hometown. Which raises another point. Skubal could be outstanding Tuesday yet have Framber Valdez outpitch him.

It will feel like if the Astros beat Skubal in game one the series is over. That is a foolhardy concept. Of course the Tigers could win games two and three.

Brown will go for the Astros in game two, and if there is a decisive game three Thursday the ball goes to Yusei Kikuchi. Ronel Blanco looms as a multi-inning bullpen threat in one game of the series. If a reliever is needed before getting to the back end of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader, Blanco is the best pitcher available and a better option than Hector Neris or anyone else.

The Tigers' game two starter would have been Jack Flaherty, except they dealt him to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. That’s another fact that makes the Tigers’ surge amazing. Second season man Reese Olson probably goes for the Tigers in game two. Brown rates a huge edge over him though in one game, as ever, you never know. If a game three, Hinch likely starts John Brieske, but with a short leash. An X-factor at Hinch’s disposal at least once in the series is Jackson Jobe, considered by many the best starting pitching prospect yet to start in the Majors. The Tigers called up Jobe for his big league debut the final week of the regular season. The 22-year-old righthander with a 101 miles-per-hour fastball pitched in four innings over two games. He gave up one hit and no runs.

Not so fast!

Reading much into Tigers’ season-long statistics is done at one’s own risk. The Tigers awoke August 11 at 55-63. They have since played as if a mostly different team. A handful of points…

Shortstop Javier Baez’s season-ending back injury was a Tiger blessing because Hinch couldn’t play him anymore. Baez has been sub-pathetic since the Tigers moronically gave him a six year 140 million dollar contract after Carlos Correa said “no thanks” to Detroit’s 10 year 275 million dollar offer after the 2021 season. It’s not as if anyone is confusing replacement Trey Sweeney with Alan Trammell, but his play has been much better than the rotting corpse production Baez was giving. The Tigers got Sweeney in the Flaherty deal with the Dodgers and called him August 16.

Oh, Sweeney is cousins with actress Sydney Sweeney. Think anyone will have eyes out for her Tuesday?

The Tigers’ other middle infielder is also a rookie. They gave the second base job to Colt Keith out of spring training and he looked utterly overmatched the first month-plus of the season. Over his first 30 games Keith hit .152 with an impossibly feeble .399 OPS. Well, he figured out stuff. From May 6 forward Keith has been a better player than Jose Altuve.

The Astros start lefty Valdez in game one and if a game three fellow lefty Kikuchi. The Tigers' two best offensive players bat left-handed…and poorly vs. southpaws. 24-year-old Tiger All-Star Riley Greene is a stud. But vs. lefties he hit just .213 with a .693 OPS. Kerry Carpenter has by far the Tigers’ best batting rate stats. Thing is, he hardly even plays against lefties. Carpenter has a .930 OPS overall. Against lefties: three for 28 (.107 average) with 10 strikeouts. Does Hinch try him against Valdez and/or Kikuchi?

No big upset is possible in a best-of-three. Of course the Astros are favored. Rightfully so given their pedigree coupled with the Tigers’ inexperience, and the Astros are the home team in every game. But the Tigers won 86 games to the Astros’ 88, and the AL Central was a better division than the West. The Cleveland Guardians await the winner for the start of a best-of-five American League Division Series Saturday.

Be sure to watch the video above for our full breakdown of Astros vs.Tigers!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday). There will be extra editions during the postseason. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.