THE PALLILOG
Here's everything you need to know ahead of Tigers-Astros Wild Card Series matchup
Sep 29, 2024, 11:48 pm
THE PALLILOG
So it’s A.J. Hinch managing the team that will try to eliminate the Astros in the best-of-three Wild Card Series that opens Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. That’s certainly a notable storyline as Hinch battles tactically with his former bench coach Joe Espada, in facing the franchise he managed to the 2017 World Series Championship, and the franchise that fired him 26 months later after Hinch’s complicity in the Astros’ cheating scandal came to light.
As covered in the most recent column, momentum means nothing heading into this series. That’s a good thing because the Tigers stormed down the stretch with a 31-11 record before pretty much no-showing their last two games against the laughingstock White Sox after Friday night celebrating securing their first playoff spot since 2014. Had the Tigers won one of them the Astros would be playing the Kansas City Royals. Oh well. It’s not like the Royals would have been a significantly easier opponent, if easier at all.
Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez
Apart from Yordan Alvarez’s sprained knee rendering dubious his ability to perform entering the postseason, the biggest “uh oh” for the Astros going into the shortest of playoff series is facing Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal in game one. With due credit to the brilliant season of Guardians’ closer Emmanuel Clase, any American League Cy Young vote for any one other than Skubal is stupid. He went 18-4, leading the AL in earned run average at 2.39, and in strikeouts with 228 in 192 innings pitched. MLB hit just .201 with a puny OPS of .558 vs. Skubal this season. Among other things, 18-4 means he’s beatable. The Astros gave Skubal one of his four losses, putting up four earned runs in six and one-third innings. The Astros won that game 4-0, with Hunter Brown throwing seven shutout innings in his hometown. Which raises another point. Skubal could be outstanding Tuesday yet have Framber Valdez outpitch him.
It will feel like if the Astros beat Skubal in game one the series is over. That is a foolhardy concept. Of course the Tigers could win games two and three.
Brown will go for the Astros in game two, and if there is a decisive game three Thursday the ball goes to Yusei Kikuchi. Ronel Blanco looms as a multi-inning bullpen threat in one game of the series. If a reliever is needed before getting to the back end of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader, Blanco is the best pitcher available and a better option than Hector Neris or anyone else.
The Tigers' game two starter would have been Jack Flaherty, except they dealt him to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. That’s another fact that makes the Tigers’ surge amazing. Second season man Reese Olson probably goes for the Tigers in game two. Brown rates a huge edge over him though in one game, as ever, you never know. If a game three, Hinch likely starts John Brieske, but with a short leash. An X-factor at Hinch’s disposal at least once in the series is Jackson Jobe, considered by many the best starting pitching prospect yet to start in the Majors. The Tigers called up Jobe for his big league debut the final week of the regular season. The 22-year-old righthander with a 101 miles-per-hour fastball pitched in four innings over two games. He gave up one hit and no runs.
Not so fast!
Reading much into Tigers’ season-long statistics is done at one’s own risk. The Tigers awoke August 11 at 55-63. They have since played as if a mostly different team. A handful of points…
Shortstop Javier Baez’s season-ending back injury was a Tiger blessing because Hinch couldn’t play him anymore. Baez has been sub-pathetic since the Tigers moronically gave him a six year 140 million dollar contract after Carlos Correa said “no thanks” to Detroit’s 10 year 275 million dollar offer after the 2021 season. It’s not as if anyone is confusing replacement Trey Sweeney with Alan Trammell, but his play has been much better than the rotting corpse production Baez was giving. The Tigers got Sweeney in the Flaherty deal with the Dodgers and called him August 16.
Oh, Sweeney is cousins with actress Sydney Sweeney. Think anyone will have eyes out for her Tuesday?
The Tigers’ other middle infielder is also a rookie. They gave the second base job to Colt Keith out of spring training and he looked utterly overmatched the first month-plus of the season. Over his first 30 games Keith hit .152 with an impossibly feeble .399 OPS. Well, he figured out stuff. From May 6 forward Keith has been a better player than Jose Altuve.
The Astros start lefty Valdez in game one and if a game three fellow lefty Kikuchi. The Tigers' two best offensive players bat left-handed…and poorly vs. southpaws. 24-year-old Tiger All-Star Riley Greene is a stud. But vs. lefties he hit just .213 with a .693 OPS. Kerry Carpenter has by far the Tigers’ best batting rate stats. Thing is, he hardly even plays against lefties. Carpenter has a .930 OPS overall. Against lefties: three for 28 (.107 average) with 10 strikeouts. Does Hinch try him against Valdez and/or Kikuchi?
No big upset is possible in a best-of-three. Of course the Astros are favored. Rightfully so given their pedigree coupled with the Tigers’ inexperience, and the Astros are the home team in every game. But the Tigers won 86 games to the Astros’ 88, and the AL Central was a better division than the West. The Cleveland Guardians await the winner for the start of a best-of-five American League Division Series Saturday.
Be sure to watch the video above for our full breakdown of Astros vs.Tigers!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday). There will be extra editions during the postseason. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jamal Murray had 39 points, Michael Porter Jr. added 17 points and nine rebounds and the Denver Nuggets beat Houston 116-111 on Sunday night to snap the Rockets' nine-game win streak.
Murray, who scored 17 in the first half, had 17 in the third quarter as Denver outscored the Rockets 39-22 in the quarter to take a 96-79 lead.
Russell Westbrook had 14 points off the bench, Aaron Gordon scored 13 points with eight assists and DeAndre Jordan had 11 points and 15 rebounds for the Nuggets, which shot 51% and were 10 of 21 on 3-pointers.
Jalen Green scored 30 points, and Dillon Brooks added 21 points for Houston. Alperen Sengun had 17 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists, and Steven Adams finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds for the Rockets, which shot 44% and were 11 of 34 from behind the arc.
Trailing 109-100 with 1 ½ minutes left, Houston used a 7-1 run to cut the lead to three on a Sengun layup with 21 seconds left, but Christian Braun made two free throws with 19 seconds remaining to push the lead back to five.
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic missed his fourth straight game with left ankle impingement, and Denver improved to 2-2 with him out of the lineup.
Rockets: Houston remains in second place in the Western Conference with 10 games left, but the Nuggets closed to within a game of Houston.
Sengun made one of two free throws with 14 seconds remaining, and Murray made two free throws two seconds later to push the lead to 114-108.
Houston finished 22 of 34 from the free throw line, while Denver made 18 of 26.
Denver hosts the Chicago Bulls on Monday night, while Houston hosts the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night.