THE PALLILOG
How Astros white-hot streak, schedule dramatically shifts new possibilities for postseason
Aug 15, 2024, 1:18 pm
It was just a matter of time. Composite Getty Image.
There’s still plenty of baseball left to be played but what a stretch for the Astros to take command of the American League West race, for at least the time being with a three game lead. Remember, their just concluded road trip began with a gut-wrenching defeat in Arlington, a game in which they squandered three different leads and lost in 10 innings on a two-out two-run bottom of the 10th inning home run. That dropped the Astros a game and a half back of the Mariners with the Rangers only three and a half games behind the Astros. Since then, it’s eight straight wins for the Astros, while the Mariners dropped five of six games with the Tigers, and the Rangers collapsed completely out of contention.
The Astros’ franchise record winning streak is 12. They’ve reeled off a dozen straight victories three times, most recently in 2018. Nothing is a given, but the Chicago White Sox are one of the worst teams in the history of the Major League Baseball, quite possibly the worst since 1900. They arrived in Houston with a record of 29-93, that is a pace to finish 38-124. Sweeping three from them this weekend would take the Astros’ current run to 11 with the Red Sox in town to start next week. In mid-June the Astros settled for taking two out of three over the ChiSox in Chicago. The loss was a 2-0 shutout in the series opener which dropped the Astros' record to 33-40, 10 games behind the Mariners. Since that day the Astros are 32-15, second best in MLB behind only the San Diego Padres. Over the same stretch Seattle has staggered to a 19-28 mark.
Seattle certainly could still wind up winning the AL West. That the Astros seemingly have all the momentum now means nothing. Momentum comes and goes. The Mariners have the mildly preferable schedule the rest of the way, but it’s about what they do with it. This weekend the M’s are in Pittsburgh where they face rookie sensation Paul Skenes Friday night. The three-game Astros-Mariners series at Minute Maid Park the final week of the season still looms extremely large, with the Astros needing to sweep or they lose the tiebreaker to the M's. The Astros’ next road trip is a doozy with four games at Baltimore then three at Philadelphia, though the Phillies have been terrible since the All-Star break.
Even should the Mariners take the division, the Astros’ surge to 10 games over .500 has significantly shifted the dynamics in the Wild Card race in case ultimately it’s a Wild card the Astros need to play in the postseason for the eighth consecutive year. The Astros enter the weekend just a half game behind Kansas City which holds the third Wild Card slot. Among remaining schedules, the Royals have the second hardest in MLB, including four games at MMP next month. For what it’s worth, the Astros’ remaining slate rates 15th toughest, the Mariners’ 24th.
August belongs to Bregman
August is a sizzling hot month every year. Not the weather. Well, of course the weather. But I mean for Alex Bregman. In 12 games this month Bregman is batting .340 with a 1.092 OPS, highlighted by “Breggy Bombs” in four consecutive games. Over his career, it is bizarre how vastly superior August has been for Bregman compared to the rest of the season, particularly given his amazing consistency over the other months. Here are Bregman’s career regular season batting average and OPS numbers for the first four months of the season:
March/April .248/.737
May .258/.818
June .268/.840
July .258/.835
Those are very solid numbers but there is absolutely nothing spectacular about any of them. Then:
August .335/1.003
Awesomeness. There is no reasonable explanation for it. It is definitely not true that once the calendar flips to August Bregman hits maximum stride in and there is no stopping him the rest of the way. Reversion has historically kicked in.
September/October (regular season only) .260/.841
Again, very solid numbers but nowhere close to August. Crazy. Will he better sustain excellence down the stretch this season? For Bregman’s postseason career the batting average/OPS combo reads .235/.790.
Closing time
Since blowing his very first save opportunity as an Astro Josh Hader has converted a franchise record 26 consecutive save chances. Saves can be a very deceiving stat for defining the quality of a closer’s season. That Hader has given up five game-losing ninth inning home runs is a big stain. Through July 30 Hader had only three “tough” saves this season. I’m defining tough as coming in for the ninth inning with just a one-run lead. Over his last eight appearances, Hader has nailed down four “tough” saves, and also worked two innings to get the victory in the Astros 2-1 win Wednesday. In the process the Astros have improved their still lousy record in one-run games to 13-19.
Frost bite
The hip-hop duo Outkast once asked “What’s cooler than being cool?” “Ice cold!” Mauricio Dubon has been frigid at the plate for a month and a half. From July 1 forward Dubon is batting a sub-anemic .146 with a feeble .445 OPS. He has just 12 hits in 81 at bats over this awful spell. But man have two of the hits been big ones. Dubon’s pinch-hit homer was the difference in a win over the Pirates July 31, then Wednesday night it was a two-out, two-strike RBI single to deliver the winning run in the 10th inning vs. the Rays. Hey Ya!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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