THE PALLILOG
How Astros white-hot streak, schedule dramatically shifts new possibilities for postseason
Aug 15, 2024, 1:18 pm
It was just a matter of time. Composite Getty Image.
There’s still plenty of baseball left to be played but what a stretch for the Astros to take command of the American League West race, for at least the time being with a three game lead. Remember, their just concluded road trip began with a gut-wrenching defeat in Arlington, a game in which they squandered three different leads and lost in 10 innings on a two-out two-run bottom of the 10th inning home run. That dropped the Astros a game and a half back of the Mariners with the Rangers only three and a half games behind the Astros. Since then, it’s eight straight wins for the Astros, while the Mariners dropped five of six games with the Tigers, and the Rangers collapsed completely out of contention.
The Astros’ franchise record winning streak is 12. They’ve reeled off a dozen straight victories three times, most recently in 2018. Nothing is a given, but the Chicago White Sox are one of the worst teams in the history of the Major League Baseball, quite possibly the worst since 1900. They arrived in Houston with a record of 29-93, that is a pace to finish 38-124. Sweeping three from them this weekend would take the Astros’ current run to 11 with the Red Sox in town to start next week. In mid-June the Astros settled for taking two out of three over the ChiSox in Chicago. The loss was a 2-0 shutout in the series opener which dropped the Astros' record to 33-40, 10 games behind the Mariners. Since that day the Astros are 32-15, second best in MLB behind only the San Diego Padres. Over the same stretch Seattle has staggered to a 19-28 mark.
Seattle certainly could still wind up winning the AL West. That the Astros seemingly have all the momentum now means nothing. Momentum comes and goes. The Mariners have the mildly preferable schedule the rest of the way, but it’s about what they do with it. This weekend the M’s are in Pittsburgh where they face rookie sensation Paul Skenes Friday night. The three-game Astros-Mariners series at Minute Maid Park the final week of the season still looms extremely large, with the Astros needing to sweep or they lose the tiebreaker to the M's. The Astros’ next road trip is a doozy with four games at Baltimore then three at Philadelphia, though the Phillies have been terrible since the All-Star break.
Even should the Mariners take the division, the Astros’ surge to 10 games over .500 has significantly shifted the dynamics in the Wild Card race in case ultimately it’s a Wild card the Astros need to play in the postseason for the eighth consecutive year. The Astros enter the weekend just a half game behind Kansas City which holds the third Wild Card slot. Among remaining schedules, the Royals have the second hardest in MLB, including four games at MMP next month. For what it’s worth, the Astros’ remaining slate rates 15th toughest, the Mariners’ 24th.
August belongs to Bregman
August is a sizzling hot month every year. Not the weather. Well, of course the weather. But I mean for Alex Bregman. In 12 games this month Bregman is batting .340 with a 1.092 OPS, highlighted by “Breggy Bombs” in four consecutive games. Over his career, it is bizarre how vastly superior August has been for Bregman compared to the rest of the season, particularly given his amazing consistency over the other months. Here are Bregman’s career regular season batting average and OPS numbers for the first four months of the season:
March/April .248/.737
May .258/.818
June .268/.840
July .258/.835
Those are very solid numbers but there is absolutely nothing spectacular about any of them. Then:
August .335/1.003
Awesomeness. There is no reasonable explanation for it. It is definitely not true that once the calendar flips to August Bregman hits maximum stride in and there is no stopping him the rest of the way. Reversion has historically kicked in.
September/October (regular season only) .260/.841
Again, very solid numbers but nowhere close to August. Crazy. Will he better sustain excellence down the stretch this season? For Bregman’s postseason career the batting average/OPS combo reads .235/.790.
Closing time
Since blowing his very first save opportunity as an Astro Josh Hader has converted a franchise record 26 consecutive save chances. Saves can be a very deceiving stat for defining the quality of a closer’s season. That Hader has given up five game-losing ninth inning home runs is a big stain. Through July 30 Hader had only three “tough” saves this season. I’m defining tough as coming in for the ninth inning with just a one-run lead. Over his last eight appearances, Hader has nailed down four “tough” saves, and also worked two innings to get the victory in the Astros 2-1 win Wednesday. In the process the Astros have improved their still lousy record in one-run games to 13-19.
Frost bite
The hip-hop duo Outkast once asked “What’s cooler than being cool?” “Ice cold!” Mauricio Dubon has been frigid at the plate for a month and a half. From July 1 forward Dubon is batting a sub-anemic .146 with a feeble .445 OPS. He has just 12 hits in 81 at bats over this awful spell. But man have two of the hits been big ones. Dubon’s pinch-hit homer was the difference in a win over the Pirates July 31, then Wednesday night it was a two-out, two-strike RBI single to deliver the winning run in the 10th inning vs. the Rays. Hey Ya!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Cam Smith brought three dozen Shipley's glazed donuts to his Houston Astros teammates Thursday morning before his major league debut.
Then he really delivered, with an opposite-field single on the first pitch he saw in the major leagues to help Houston to a 3-1 win over the New York Mets.
“They all liked it, so that’s a good thing," Smith said of the donuts, a sentiment that could also apply to his second-inning hit that set up the first run of the game.
The 22-year-old prospect reached the majors after playing just 32 minor league games. Batting seventh and starting in right field, he became the second-youngest Astros position player to make his MLB debut as a starter on opening day and the youngest since Rusty Staub was 19 in 1963.
With one out in the second, Smith grounded a single to right field on a sinker from Clay Holmes to get his first big league hit in his initial plate appearance. Jeremy Peña dashed from first to third on the play and later scored on a groundout.
“I was just looking for a pitch and I wanted to ambush it and I got lucky with that base hit,” Smith said.
The poise he showed in his debut impressed his coaches and teammates.
“He's amazing," Jose Altuve said. “He went the other way on a tough pitch and he set the tone to score the first run. I know he's going to help this team a lot. He's going to be out there getting better and better. He's just so talented.”
Most believed that Smith, the 14th overall pick in last year’s amateur draft, would need more time in the minors when he was acquired in December from the Chicago Cubs along with Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.
Instead, Smith hit .342 with a triple, four homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.130 OPS this spring to earn a spot on the major league roster.
The Astros announced he’d make the big league roster earlier this week, with manager Joe Espada inviting Smith's mother into the clubhouse to deliver the news. Video of the moment shared by the Astros captured the touching exchange.
After the trade, Smith moved from third base, where Paredes is starting, to right field, where he replaced Tucker.
Still wearing his dirt-stained uniform long after the last pitch Thursday, the kid who was playing college ball at Florida State at this time last year said he hadn’t had time to reflect on his whirlwind journey to the big leagues.
“I have not,” Smith said. “I was just out there with my family on the field appreciating this day and ... good thing we got done early so I can go home and get my feet under myself and think about it.”
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