World Series Preview
Examining Astros-Phillies World Series angles that aren't being talked about
Oct 27, 2022, 4:50 pm
World Series Preview
Since the World Series began in 1903, there have been only 21 four-game sweeps, the most recent coming in 2012 by the San Francisco Giants over the Detroit Tigers. While there are these 21 instances where a team was overbearingly good, that's more of an exception than the rule.
Especially in today's MLB, where there are, as of 2022, three rounds leading up to the Fall Classic, it's harder for teams to fluke their way into the game's final two, which is why you typically see a much more competitive series. Going into this year's World Series, the Astros are highly favored to win, with the Phillies coming in as the underdogs.
It's correct that the Astros should be expected to win as Houston has things squarely in their favor in several areas, but with what the Phillies have shown so far this postseason, they absolutely should not be taken lightly.
Getting hot when it matters most
The expanded playoffs benefited Philadelphia this year, with the Phillies making the postseason as the third and final Wild Card team in the NL. They ended the regular season with a record of 87-75, edging out the Brewers, who finished one game out at 86-76, which, if you remember, allowed the Phillies to celebrate their playoff berth at Minute Maid Park in the final series of the regular season, which Houston won 2-1 (but should not be any indicator of how this series will go).
In June, Philadelphia sat 22-29, prompting the firing of then-manager Joe Girardi, with bench coach Rob Thomson taking over the reins. Thomson has won over the team and the city, turning the 22-29 team around to a winning record and their first World Series appearance since 2009, when they fell to the New York Yankees after winning it in 2008.
Philadelphia is more of an offensive-driven team, using their top-10 offense from the regular season and middle-of-the-pack pitching staff to get into the playoffs, where they've gotten hot at the right time. In terms of the postseason, they've posted upset after upset, starting with their two-game sweep in the Wild Card round against the Cardinals in St. Louis. They then beat the defending champion Braves in four games in the NLDS before dispatching the Padres in the NLCS in five games, two teams that the Phillies, on paper, should not have handled as easily as they did.
In their eleven games so far in the postseason, they are averaging over five runs per game, with 44% of their runs coming via their sixteen home runs, mostly from their power hitters Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins. Their offense has helped fan the flames of this hot run they are on, which has the Phillies, the last team in and the last team standing in the National League.
Pitching perfect
Houston cruised to another AL West Division win before locking up the AL's top seed with their 106-56 record, their fourth 100-win finish in the last five 162-game seasons. As that record would indicate, they were a dominant team in the regular season, with a top-10 offense and the best pitching staff (in terms of WAR).
This year's team has been centered around that strength of pitching. Yes, they still have an effective and potent offense, but it has continued to be their pitching that has been the way through. After posting a 2.90 ERA in the regular season, they've improved that to 1.88 in the postseason, having suppressed the Mariners and Yankees' offenses en route to their undefeated 7-0 record so far after the ALDS and ALCS.
While the Phillies have top-tier arms like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the top-to-bottom dominance by Houston's starters and relievers is simply unmatched. The 1-2 punch of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, which, if worse comes to worst, would account for four games if the series should extend to seven games, is enough to put Houston as the predictable winner of those four games.
Then there's the rock-solid bullpen that the Astros have turned to time after time with success in 2022. While they've gotten much more than that from their starters, with a bullpen this good, all Houston needs are about five innings from their starters, then they can roll out four pitchers that are more than capable of finishing things off.
The focus on Houston's pitching isn't to say that the Astros' lineup is outmatched by Philadelphia's by any means. With Alex Bregman's continued consistency, Yordan Alvarez's incredible power, Jeremy Pena's clutch hitting, and a potentially revitalized Jose Altuve to go with others like Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel, they could easily win any game that becomes a slugfest. But, with pitching this good, sometimes all it's taken is a few timely hits, which the Astros have provided with several places in their order along the way.
Time to see how they match up
So, you have a team with an offensive strength going up against a team with a pitching strength. If the Phillies continue to score at the pace they have against Houston's elite arms, they'll potentially have the Astros on the ropes needing their offense to step up in big spots to overcome it. It's why, even though the Astros should win, you can't count out the Phillies.
However, if Houston's pitching tames Philadelphia's lineup and holds them to the type of low-scoring outcomes they have other offenses, then the Astros have things in their favor, forcing the Phillies to ask their pitchers to go beyond what they've provided so far. Yes, the Astros have the advantage in almost every area and have been the better team thus far, but it's never that simple.
It's what makes the World Series competitive almost every year, and why this one will be another fun one to watch when it gets underway Friday night at Minute Maid Park.
Despite a last-minute comeback attempt by Gonzaga on Saturday, the Cougars defeated the Bulldogs and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight NCAA Tournament.
Houston will face the No.4 seed Purdue, who made it to the championship game last year.
The Boilermakers will be one of the toughest opponents the Cougars have faced thus far and will essentially have the home-court advantage with the game taking place in Indianapolis.
Despite the daunting matchup on paper, Houston is currently an -8.5 favorite to win this game. The Cougars should be able to handle Purdue so long as their offense stays hot and they continue to play defense at an elite level.
Keep the offense flowing
Houston guard LJ Cryer matched a career-high with 30 points against Gonzaga and has been the offensive focal point of this team.
This season, the Baylor transfer has averaged 15.6 points per game and has stepped up to be one of the unquestioned leaders of this team.
In addition to Cryer, the Cougars have Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, who can carry the offensive load as they did during the Big 12 Tournament and against SIUE on Thursday.
J’Wan Roberts is another key factor for Houston’s success. The senior forward seems to have recovered from his ankle injury and has been a productive player since returning to the lineup.
Roberts leads the team in rebounds and is one of the most efficient scorers for the Cougars, averaging more than 50% from the field over his last five seasons.
Houston’s dynamic offense and elite defense makes this team one of the toughest to beat during the tournament.
Containing Purdue’s stars
The Boilermakers have two proficient scorers on their team, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, who each average over 15 points per game.
Kaufman-Renn scored 22 points in his previous game against McNeese State and has been one of Purdue’s best players for most of this year.
Roberts and Joseph Tuggler will likely be assigned to the junior forward to slow down his offense, forcing his teammates to step up.
Smith is Purdue’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16 points per game, and has the most assists and steals for the Boilermakers this season.
Both Uzan and Cyrer, who have been elite parameter defenders, will cover the Purdue guard and limit his production.
Containing both Kaufman-Renn and Smith will be Houston’s top priority and the key to come away victorious.
Play Cougar basketball
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has now made it to at least the Sweet 16 six consecutive times and has his team well-positioned to make another deep tournament run.
Since arriving in Houston, the 69-year-old coach has turned this program from an afterthought to one of the best basketball teams in the country year after year.
Sampson’s key to his success is instilling a defensive-first mentality into his team and getting the best effort out of his players.
This season is no different, as Houston has the number-one ranked defense in the nation and is holding their opponents to 58.4 points per game on average.
If the Cougars can create consistent offense and continue playing defense at an elite level, they should win this game with ease and advance to the Elite 8 for the first time in three years.
The Houston-Purdue game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday at 9 pm. The winner will play either Kentucky or Tennessee in the next round.