World Series Preview
Examining Astros-Phillies World Series angles that aren't being talked about
Oct 27, 2022, 4:50 pm
World Series Preview
Since the World Series began in 1903, there have been only 21 four-game sweeps, the most recent coming in 2012 by the San Francisco Giants over the Detroit Tigers. While there are these 21 instances where a team was overbearingly good, that's more of an exception than the rule.
Especially in today's MLB, where there are, as of 2022, three rounds leading up to the Fall Classic, it's harder for teams to fluke their way into the game's final two, which is why you typically see a much more competitive series. Going into this year's World Series, the Astros are highly favored to win, with the Phillies coming in as the underdogs.
It's correct that the Astros should be expected to win as Houston has things squarely in their favor in several areas, but with what the Phillies have shown so far this postseason, they absolutely should not be taken lightly.
Getting hot when it matters most
The expanded playoffs benefited Philadelphia this year, with the Phillies making the postseason as the third and final Wild Card team in the NL. They ended the regular season with a record of 87-75, edging out the Brewers, who finished one game out at 86-76, which, if you remember, allowed the Phillies to celebrate their playoff berth at Minute Maid Park in the final series of the regular season, which Houston won 2-1 (but should not be any indicator of how this series will go).
In June, Philadelphia sat 22-29, prompting the firing of then-manager Joe Girardi, with bench coach Rob Thomson taking over the reins. Thomson has won over the team and the city, turning the 22-29 team around to a winning record and their first World Series appearance since 2009, when they fell to the New York Yankees after winning it in 2008.
Philadelphia is more of an offensive-driven team, using their top-10 offense from the regular season and middle-of-the-pack pitching staff to get into the playoffs, where they've gotten hot at the right time. In terms of the postseason, they've posted upset after upset, starting with their two-game sweep in the Wild Card round against the Cardinals in St. Louis. They then beat the defending champion Braves in four games in the NLDS before dispatching the Padres in the NLCS in five games, two teams that the Phillies, on paper, should not have handled as easily as they did.
In their eleven games so far in the postseason, they are averaging over five runs per game, with 44% of their runs coming via their sixteen home runs, mostly from their power hitters Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins. Their offense has helped fan the flames of this hot run they are on, which has the Phillies, the last team in and the last team standing in the National League.
Pitching perfect
Houston cruised to another AL West Division win before locking up the AL's top seed with their 106-56 record, their fourth 100-win finish in the last five 162-game seasons. As that record would indicate, they were a dominant team in the regular season, with a top-10 offense and the best pitching staff (in terms of WAR).
This year's team has been centered around that strength of pitching. Yes, they still have an effective and potent offense, but it has continued to be their pitching that has been the way through. After posting a 2.90 ERA in the regular season, they've improved that to 1.88 in the postseason, having suppressed the Mariners and Yankees' offenses en route to their undefeated 7-0 record so far after the ALDS and ALCS.
While the Phillies have top-tier arms like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the top-to-bottom dominance by Houston's starters and relievers is simply unmatched. The 1-2 punch of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, which, if worse comes to worst, would account for four games if the series should extend to seven games, is enough to put Houston as the predictable winner of those four games.
Then there's the rock-solid bullpen that the Astros have turned to time after time with success in 2022. While they've gotten much more than that from their starters, with a bullpen this good, all Houston needs are about five innings from their starters, then they can roll out four pitchers that are more than capable of finishing things off.
The focus on Houston's pitching isn't to say that the Astros' lineup is outmatched by Philadelphia's by any means. With Alex Bregman's continued consistency, Yordan Alvarez's incredible power, Jeremy Pena's clutch hitting, and a potentially revitalized Jose Altuve to go with others like Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel, they could easily win any game that becomes a slugfest. But, with pitching this good, sometimes all it's taken is a few timely hits, which the Astros have provided with several places in their order along the way.
Time to see how they match up
So, you have a team with an offensive strength going up against a team with a pitching strength. If the Phillies continue to score at the pace they have against Houston's elite arms, they'll potentially have the Astros on the ropes needing their offense to step up in big spots to overcome it. It's why, even though the Astros should win, you can't count out the Phillies.
However, if Houston's pitching tames Philadelphia's lineup and holds them to the type of low-scoring outcomes they have other offenses, then the Astros have things in their favor, forcing the Phillies to ask their pitchers to go beyond what they've provided so far. Yes, the Astros have the advantage in almost every area and have been the better team thus far, but it's never that simple.
It's what makes the World Series competitive almost every year, and why this one will be another fun one to watch when it gets underway Friday night at Minute Maid Park.
The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills both enter Week 5 with identical records, looking to continue their strong early-season performances. The Texans, led by breakout quarterback C.J. Stroud, come off a thrilling 24-20 win over Jacksonville, while the Bills are seeking to bounce back after a disappointing 35-10 loss to Baltimore.
Bet MGM NFL Odds: Bills favored by 1
Against the Spread: Buffalo 2-2, Houston 0-3-1
Series Record: Texans lead 6-5
Last Meeting: Bills defeated Texans 40-0 (Oct. 3, 2021)
Texans WR Nico Collins:
Collins has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL this season, leading the league with 489 receiving yards. Coming off a career-best performance with 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville, Collins will be a key target for Stroud against Buffalo’s strong secondary.
Bills DE A.J. Epenesa:
With Von Miller suspended, Epenesa will be expected to step up as Buffalo’s primary pass rusher. Epenesa has one sack through four starts and needs to take on a larger role with the absence of Miller, who leads the NFL's active players in sacks.
Texans WR Stefon Diggs vs. Former Team:
Diggs, who was traded to the Texans in the offseason, will face his former team for the first time. He has been productive for Houston, logging 233 yards and two receiving touchdowns this season, as well as his first career rushing touchdown last week.
The Bills face multiple injury concerns, including linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Taron Johnson, and safety Taylor Rapp, all of whom are questionable. Buffalo's leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) has been ruled out. The Texans could see the return of WR Tank Dell after he missed last week, though RB Joe Mixon is not expected to play. LT Laremy Tunsil is questionable, which could impact their offensive game plan.
Update: Aaron Wilson has the latest on which Texans players are practicing on Friday.
#Texans Joe Mixon remains out of practice and not expected to play Sunday against #Bills Dameon Pierce returns, Tytus Howard sidelined @KPRC2 https://t.co/DR0IKzAC7C
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 4, 2024
Bills Offense:
Buffalo’s offense ranks second in scoring but has been inconsistent, as seen in their 10-point showing against the Ravens last week. Josh Allen, while turnover-prone in the past, is on a four-game streak without throwing an interception.
Texans Defense:
Houston’s defense has been a standout, ranking fifth overall and excelling against the pass, which could be key against the Bills' passing attack. However, their 40 penalties this season have been a major issue, and they'll need more discipline to keep pace with Buffalo.
Texans Offense:
Houston's passing game has been stellar, with Stroud leading the Texans to the 8th-best offense overall and the 3rd-ranked passing attack. This will be a critical factor against Buffalo’s defense, which ranks 6th against the pass.
Look for Nico Collins to continue his dominant streak as Stroud’s top target. Collins has over 80 receiving yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
This matchup pits a strong Texans passing game against a resilient Bills defense. Buffalo holds the slight edge in the spread, and with both teams vying for a crucial win, this should be a hard-fought contest.
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ChatGPT contributed to this content.