World Series Preview
Examining Astros-Phillies World Series angles that aren't being talked about
Oct 27, 2022, 4:50 pm
World Series Preview
Since the World Series began in 1903, there have been only 21 four-game sweeps, the most recent coming in 2012 by the San Francisco Giants over the Detroit Tigers. While there are these 21 instances where a team was overbearingly good, that's more of an exception than the rule.
Especially in today's MLB, where there are, as of 2022, three rounds leading up to the Fall Classic, it's harder for teams to fluke their way into the game's final two, which is why you typically see a much more competitive series. Going into this year's World Series, the Astros are highly favored to win, with the Phillies coming in as the underdogs.
It's correct that the Astros should be expected to win as Houston has things squarely in their favor in several areas, but with what the Phillies have shown so far this postseason, they absolutely should not be taken lightly.
Getting hot when it matters most
The expanded playoffs benefited Philadelphia this year, with the Phillies making the postseason as the third and final Wild Card team in the NL. They ended the regular season with a record of 87-75, edging out the Brewers, who finished one game out at 86-76, which, if you remember, allowed the Phillies to celebrate their playoff berth at Minute Maid Park in the final series of the regular season, which Houston won 2-1 (but should not be any indicator of how this series will go).
In June, Philadelphia sat 22-29, prompting the firing of then-manager Joe Girardi, with bench coach Rob Thomson taking over the reins. Thomson has won over the team and the city, turning the 22-29 team around to a winning record and their first World Series appearance since 2009, when they fell to the New York Yankees after winning it in 2008.
Philadelphia is more of an offensive-driven team, using their top-10 offense from the regular season and middle-of-the-pack pitching staff to get into the playoffs, where they've gotten hot at the right time. In terms of the postseason, they've posted upset after upset, starting with their two-game sweep in the Wild Card round against the Cardinals in St. Louis. They then beat the defending champion Braves in four games in the NLDS before dispatching the Padres in the NLCS in five games, two teams that the Phillies, on paper, should not have handled as easily as they did.
In their eleven games so far in the postseason, they are averaging over five runs per game, with 44% of their runs coming via their sixteen home runs, mostly from their power hitters Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins. Their offense has helped fan the flames of this hot run they are on, which has the Phillies, the last team in and the last team standing in the National League.
Pitching perfect
Houston cruised to another AL West Division win before locking up the AL's top seed with their 106-56 record, their fourth 100-win finish in the last five 162-game seasons. As that record would indicate, they were a dominant team in the regular season, with a top-10 offense and the best pitching staff (in terms of WAR).
This year's team has been centered around that strength of pitching. Yes, they still have an effective and potent offense, but it has continued to be their pitching that has been the way through. After posting a 2.90 ERA in the regular season, they've improved that to 1.88 in the postseason, having suppressed the Mariners and Yankees' offenses en route to their undefeated 7-0 record so far after the ALDS and ALCS.
While the Phillies have top-tier arms like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the top-to-bottom dominance by Houston's starters and relievers is simply unmatched. The 1-2 punch of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, which, if worse comes to worst, would account for four games if the series should extend to seven games, is enough to put Houston as the predictable winner of those four games.
Then there's the rock-solid bullpen that the Astros have turned to time after time with success in 2022. While they've gotten much more than that from their starters, with a bullpen this good, all Houston needs are about five innings from their starters, then they can roll out four pitchers that are more than capable of finishing things off.
The focus on Houston's pitching isn't to say that the Astros' lineup is outmatched by Philadelphia's by any means. With Alex Bregman's continued consistency, Yordan Alvarez's incredible power, Jeremy Pena's clutch hitting, and a potentially revitalized Jose Altuve to go with others like Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel, they could easily win any game that becomes a slugfest. But, with pitching this good, sometimes all it's taken is a few timely hits, which the Astros have provided with several places in their order along the way.
Time to see how they match up
So, you have a team with an offensive strength going up against a team with a pitching strength. If the Phillies continue to score at the pace they have against Houston's elite arms, they'll potentially have the Astros on the ropes needing their offense to step up in big spots to overcome it. It's why, even though the Astros should win, you can't count out the Phillies.
However, if Houston's pitching tames Philadelphia's lineup and holds them to the type of low-scoring outcomes they have other offenses, then the Astros have things in their favor, forcing the Phillies to ask their pitchers to go beyond what they've provided so far. Yes, the Astros have the advantage in almost every area and have been the better team thus far, but it's never that simple.
It's what makes the World Series competitive almost every year, and why this one will be another fun one to watch when it gets underway Friday night at Minute Maid Park.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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